Evaluation of a procedure to assess the adverse effects of illicit drugs.

Abstract

The assessment procedure of new synthetic illicit drugs that are not documented in the UN treaty on psychotropic drugs was evaluated using a modified Electre model. Drugs were evaluated by an expert panel via the open Delphi approach, where the written score was discussed on 16 items, covering medical, health, legal, and criminalistic issues of the drugs. After this face-to-face discussion the drugs were scored again. Taking the assessment of ketamine as an example, it appeared that each expert used its own scale to score, and that policymakers do not score deviant from experts trained in the medical-biological field. Of the five drugs evaluated by the panel, p-methoxy-metamphetamine (PMMA), gamma-hydroxybutyric acid (GHB), and 4-methylthio-amphetamine (MTA) were assessed as more adverse than ketamine and psilocine and psilocybine-containing mushrooms. Whereas some experts slightly adjusted during the assessment procedure their opinion on ketamine and PMMA, the opinion on mushrooms was not affected by the discussion held between the two scoring rounds. All experts rank the five drugs in a similar way on the adverse effect scale i.e., concordance scale of the Electre model, indicating unanimity in the expert panel with respect to the risk classification of these abused drugs.