Climate Projections for Europe: GCM intercomparisons and anlaysis of the predictability in practical and theoretical sense

2.50
Hdl Handle:
http://hdl.handle.net/10029/255835
Title:
Climate Projections for Europe: GCM intercomparisons and anlaysis of the predictability in practical and theoretical sense
Authors:
Brink HW van den; Selten FM; Doortmont DF; Opsteegh JD; Konnen GP
Other Titles:
Klimaatprojecties voor Europa: modelvergelijkingen en een analyse van de voorspelbaarheid
Abstract:
Abstract niet beschikbaar

The predictability of the European climate is investigated on three aspects. First, for 3 GCM models (i.e. ECHAM4-OPYC3, Hadcm3, CCCma) is determined how an enhanced greenhousegas-concentration influences the temperature, precipitation and pressure. This influence is determined for different spatial scales, i.e. global, regional (Europe) and local (De Bilt). The changes are expressed in a quality number, which compares the greenhouse signal with the capability of the models to describe the mean and the variability of the current climate. The second aspect considered is the way the probability density function (PDF) of the temperature changes due to an enhanced greenhousegas-concentration. The KNMI-model ECBilt shows for the end of this century not only a shifted, but also a narrower PDF. Specifically investigated is the effect on cold winter temperatures. For an event occurring once in 10 years, the shift is 1.2 WC, whereas the narrower PDF causes an extra 1.5 WC, being 2.7 WC in total. The third aspect is the surge level at the Dutch coast. Not only the effect of the greenhouse climate is investigated, but also is determined if the observed record can be used for estimating the surge level belonging to the (socially relevant) return period of 10.000 year. The research shows that the available records of 100 year deficit considerably. For the greenhouse climate, ECBilt indicates the excitation of so-called 'super-storms': storms of a extreme rareness, with an other intensity-frequency relation than the extreme storms we know from the current climate. For return periods longer than several centuries, the statistics of the extremes for wind and surge in the ECBilt greenhouse experiment are determined by these super-storms.
Affiliation:
NOP
Publisher:
KNMI; De Bilt
Issue Date:
10-Dec-2001
URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10029/255835
Additional Links:
http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/410200079.html
Type:
Onderzoeksrapport
Language:
en
ISBN:
90 5851 061 1
Sponsors:
SG-NOP
Appears in Collections:
RIVM official reports

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorBrink HW van den-
dc.contributor.authorSelten FM-
dc.contributor.authorDoortmont DF-
dc.contributor.authorOpsteegh JD-
dc.contributor.authorKonnen GP-
dc.date.accessioned2012-12-12T12:33:19Z-
dc.date.available2012-12-12T12:33:19Z-
dc.date.issued2001-12-10-
dc.identifier410200079-
dc.identifier.isbn90 5851 061 1-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10029/255835-
dc.description.abstractAbstract niet beschikbaarnl
dc.description.abstractThe predictability of the European climate is investigated on three aspects. First, for 3 GCM models (i.e. ECHAM4-OPYC3, Hadcm3, CCCma) is determined how an enhanced greenhousegas-concentration influences the temperature, precipitation and pressure. This influence is determined for different spatial scales, i.e. global, regional (Europe) and local (De Bilt). The changes are expressed in a quality number, which compares the greenhouse signal with the capability of the models to describe the mean and the variability of the current climate. The second aspect considered is the way the probability density function (PDF) of the temperature changes due to an enhanced greenhousegas-concentration. The KNMI-model ECBilt shows for the end of this century not only a shifted, but also a narrower PDF. Specifically investigated is the effect on cold winter temperatures. For an event occurring once in 10 years, the shift is 1.2 WC, whereas the narrower PDF causes an extra 1.5 WC, being 2.7 WC in total. The third aspect is the surge level at the Dutch coast. Not only the effect of the greenhouse climate is investigated, but also is determined if the observed record can be used for estimating the surge level belonging to the (socially relevant) return period of 10.000 year. The research shows that the available records of 100 year deficit considerably. For the greenhouse climate, ECBilt indicates the excitation of so-called 'super-storms': storms of a extreme rareness, with an other intensity-frequency relation than the extreme storms we know from the current climate. For return periods longer than several centuries, the statistics of the extremes for wind and surge in the ECBilt greenhouse experiment are determined by these super-storms.en
dc.description.sponsorshipSG-NOP-
dc.format.extent100 p-
dc.language.isoen-
dc.publisherKNMI-
dc.publisherDe Bilt-
dc.relation.ispartofGlobal Change NOP-NRP report 410200079-
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/410200079.html-
dc.subject04nl
dc.subjectklimaatveranderingnl
dc.subjectweernl
dc.subjectlange termijnnl
dc.subjectstormnl
dc.subjectclimatic changesen
dc.subjectweatheren
dc.subjectlong termen
dc.subjectstormen
dc.titleClimate Projections for Europe: GCM intercomparisons and anlaysis of the predictability in practical and theoretical senseen
dc.title.alternativeKlimaatprojecties voor Europa: modelvergelijkingen en een analyse van de voorspelbaarheidnl
dc.typeOnderzoeksrapport-
dc.contributor.departmentNOP-
dc.date.updated2012-12-12T12:33:19Z-
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