Assessment of long-term effects of climate change on biodiversity and vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems

2.50
Hdl Handle:
http://hdl.handle.net/10029/257153
Title:
Assessment of long-term effects of climate change on biodiversity and vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems
Authors:
Oene H; Berendse F; Alkemade FRM; Bakkenes M; Ihle F; Kovel CGF de
Other Titles:
Assessment van de lange termijn effecten van klimaatverandering op biodiversiteit en kwetsbaarheid van terrestrische ecosystemen
Abstract:
Abstract niet beschikbaar

The aim of this project was to analyse the effects of climatic change on plant species diversity and ecosystem functioning. The direct effects of climatic change on plant species diversity were analysed using a species-based probabilistic model (EUROMOVE) that relates the probability of occurrence of ca. 1400 European plant species to climatic variables like the mean temperature of the coldest month, the effective temperature sum, the annual precipitation, the annual potential and actual evapotranspiration, the length of the growing season and the mean growing season temperature. The indirect effects of raised CO2 levels and increased temperatures on ecosystem functioning, and the consequences of these indirect effects for plant diversity, were analysed by combining a mechanistic simulation model (NUCOM) with regression models. NUCOM predicts the effects of environmental changes on dominant plant species composition and ecosystem variables. The predicted ecosystem variables are linked to plant species diversity of subordinate species by regression models using Ellenberg indices for N availability, soil acidity, soil moisture and light intensity. The consequences of climatic change scenarios (IPCC Baseline A, IPCC Stabilisation 450) and N deposition scenarios (reduced, constant) were analysed using these two approaches for Europe (EUROMOVE) and part of the Netherlands (NUCOM). The results showed that the direct effects of climatic change may have a large impact on plant species diversity and distribution. The indirect effects of climatic change on plant diversity appeared minor but effects of changes in soil moisture are not included. Other environmental changes like eutrophication and human impact have a large effect on ecosystem variables and plant species diversity. Reductions in nitrogen emission have a positive effect but take time to become apparent.
Affiliation:
NOP
Issue Date:
24-Dec-1999
URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10029/257153
Additional Links:
http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/410200032.html
Type:
Onderzoeksrapport
Language:
en
ISBN:
90 5851 015 8
Sponsors:
SG-NOP
Appears in Collections:
RIVM official reports

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorOene H-
dc.contributor.authorBerendse F-
dc.contributor.authorAlkemade FRM-
dc.contributor.authorBakkenes M-
dc.contributor.authorIhle F-
dc.contributor.authorKovel CGF de-
dc.date.accessioned2012-12-12T15:09:00Z-
dc.date.available2012-12-12T15:09:00Z-
dc.date.issued1999-12-24-
dc.identifier410200032-
dc.identifier.isbn90 5851 015 8-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10029/257153-
dc.description.abstractAbstract niet beschikbaarnl
dc.description.abstractThe aim of this project was to analyse the effects of climatic change on plant species diversity and ecosystem functioning. The direct effects of climatic change on plant species diversity were analysed using a species-based probabilistic model (EUROMOVE) that relates the probability of occurrence of ca. 1400 European plant species to climatic variables like the mean temperature of the coldest month, the effective temperature sum, the annual precipitation, the annual potential and actual evapotranspiration, the length of the growing season and the mean growing season temperature. The indirect effects of raised CO2 levels and increased temperatures on ecosystem functioning, and the consequences of these indirect effects for plant diversity, were analysed by combining a mechanistic simulation model (NUCOM) with regression models. NUCOM predicts the effects of environmental changes on dominant plant species composition and ecosystem variables. The predicted ecosystem variables are linked to plant species diversity of subordinate species by regression models using Ellenberg indices for N availability, soil acidity, soil moisture and light intensity. The consequences of climatic change scenarios (IPCC Baseline A, IPCC Stabilisation 450) and N deposition scenarios (reduced, constant) were analysed using these two approaches for Europe (EUROMOVE) and part of the Netherlands (NUCOM). The results showed that the direct effects of climatic change may have a large impact on plant species diversity and distribution. The indirect effects of climatic change on plant diversity appeared minor but effects of changes in soil moisture are not included. Other environmental changes like eutrophication and human impact have a large effect on ecosystem variables and plant species diversity. Reductions in nitrogen emission have a positive effect but take time to become apparent.en
dc.description.sponsorshipSG-NOP-
dc.format.extent170 p-
dc.language.isoen-
dc.relation.ispartofGlobal Change NOP-NRP report 410200032-
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/410200032.html-
dc.subject09nl
dc.subjectklimaatveranderingnl
dc.subjecteffectennl
dc.subjectbiodiversiteitnl
dc.subjectterrestrische ecosystemennl
dc.subjectlange termijnnl
dc.subjectclimatic changesen
dc.subjecteffectsen
dc.subjectbiodiversityen
dc.subjectterrestrial ecosystemsen
dc.subjectlong termen
dc.titleAssessment of long-term effects of climate change on biodiversity and vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystemsen
dc.title.alternativeAssessment van de lange termijn effecten van klimaatverandering op biodiversiteit en kwetsbaarheid van terrestrische ecosystemennl
dc.typeOnderzoeksrapport-
dc.contributor.departmentNOP-
dc.date.updated2012-12-12T15:09:00Z-
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