Modeling predicted that tobacco control policies targeted at lower educated will reduce the differences in life expectancy.

2.50
Hdl Handle:
http://hdl.handle.net/10029/5556
Title:
Modeling predicted that tobacco control policies targeted at lower educated will reduce the differences in life expectancy.
Authors:
Bemelmans, W J E; Lenthe, Frank J van; Hoogenveen, R; Kunst, A; Deeg, D J H; Brandt, P A van den; Goldbohm, R A; Verschuren, W M Monique
Abstract:
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effects of reducing the prevalence of smoking in lower educated groups on educational differences in life expectancy. METHODS: A dynamic Markov-type multistate transition model estimated the effects on life expectancy of two scenarios. A "maximum scenario" where educational differences in prevalence of smoking disappear immediately, and a "policy target-scenario" where difference in prevalence of smoking is halved over a 20-year period. The two scenarios were compared to a reference scenario, where smoking prevalences do not change. Five Dutch cohort studies, involving over 67,000 participants aged 20 to 90 years, provided relative mortality risks by educational level, and smoking habits were assessed using national data of more than 120,000 persons. RESULTS: In the reference scenario, the difference in life expectancy at age 40 between highest and lowest educated groups was 5.1 years for men and 2.7 years for women. In the "maximum scenario" these differences were reduced to 3.6 years for men and 1.7 years for women (reduction approximately 30%), and in the "policy target-scenario" differences were 4.7 years for men and 2.4 years for women (reduction approximately 10%). CONCLUSION: Theoretically, educational differences in life expectancy would be reduced by 30% at maximum, if variations in smoking prevalence were eliminated completely. In practice, tobacco control policies that are targeted at the lower educated may reduce the differences in life expectancy by approximately 10%.
Citation:
J Clin Epidemiol 2006, 59(9):1002-8
Issue Date:
1-Sep-2006
URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10029/5556
DOI:
10.1016/j.jclinepi.2006.02.008
PubMed ID:
16895825
Type:
Article
Language:
en
ISSN:
0895-4356
Appears in Collections:
Public Health and Health Care

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorBemelmans, W J E-
dc.contributor.authorLenthe, Frank J van-
dc.contributor.authorHoogenveen, R-
dc.contributor.authorKunst, A-
dc.contributor.authorDeeg, D J H-
dc.contributor.authorBrandt, P A van den-
dc.contributor.authorGoldbohm, R A-
dc.contributor.authorVerschuren, W M Monique-
dc.date.accessioned2006-10-24T12:08:09Z-
dc.date.available2006-10-24T12:08:09Z-
dc.date.issued2006-09-01-
dc.identifier.citationJ Clin Epidemiol 2006, 59(9):1002-8en
dc.identifier.issn0895-4356-
dc.identifier.pmid16895825-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jclinepi.2006.02.008-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10029/5556-
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effects of reducing the prevalence of smoking in lower educated groups on educational differences in life expectancy. METHODS: A dynamic Markov-type multistate transition model estimated the effects on life expectancy of two scenarios. A "maximum scenario" where educational differences in prevalence of smoking disappear immediately, and a "policy target-scenario" where difference in prevalence of smoking is halved over a 20-year period. The two scenarios were compared to a reference scenario, where smoking prevalences do not change. Five Dutch cohort studies, involving over 67,000 participants aged 20 to 90 years, provided relative mortality risks by educational level, and smoking habits were assessed using national data of more than 120,000 persons. RESULTS: In the reference scenario, the difference in life expectancy at age 40 between highest and lowest educated groups was 5.1 years for men and 2.7 years for women. In the "maximum scenario" these differences were reduced to 3.6 years for men and 1.7 years for women (reduction approximately 30%), and in the "policy target-scenario" differences were 4.7 years for men and 2.4 years for women (reduction approximately 10%). CONCLUSION: Theoretically, educational differences in life expectancy would be reduced by 30% at maximum, if variations in smoking prevalence were eliminated completely. In practice, tobacco control policies that are targeted at the lower educated may reduce the differences in life expectancy by approximately 10%.en
dc.format.extent189732 bytes-
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf-
dc.language.isoenen
dc.titleModeling predicted that tobacco control policies targeted at lower educated will reduce the differences in life expectancy.en
dc.typeArticleen
dc.format.digYES-

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