Regional costs and benefits of alternative post-Kyoto climate regimes: Comparison of variants of the Multi-stage and Per Capita Convergence regimes
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Open Access
Type
Report
Language
en
Date
2003-11-28
Research Projects
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Journal Issue
Title
Regional costs and benefits of alternative
post-Kyoto climate regimes: Comparison of variants of the Multi-stage and
Per Capita Convergence regimes
Translated Title
Regionale kosten en baten van alternatieve
post-Kyoto klimaat regimes: Vergelijking van varianten van de 'Multi-stage'
en 'Per Capita Convergence' regimes
Published in
Abstract
Deze studie verkent de technische, economische en
milieu implicaties van verschillende zogenaamde post-Kyoto regimes voor de
verdeling van regionale reductie doelstellingen die leiden tot stabilisatie
van de broeikasgasconcentratie in de atmosfeer op 550 en 650 ppmv
CO2-equivalenten (het S550e en S650e profiel). Binnen deze profielen zijn
de varianten van het 'Multi-stage' en 'Per Capita convergence' regime
geevalueerd. Voor de Annex I landen zijn de reducties meer afhankelijk van
het stabilisatieniveau dan van het type regime. In 2025 leiden de meeste
regimes onder het S550e profiel tot een reductie van emissies van 25-50% ten
opzichte van 1990 niveau (range afhankelijk van regio en regime). Voor de
niet-Annex I landen zijn de reductiedoelstellingen meer gedifferentieerd,
zowel wat betreft regiem als voor verschillende tijdsperiodes. Onder alle
regimes is vroege toetreding van de (belangrijkste) niet-Annex I landen
noodzakelijk. Vier groepen van regio's met vergelijkbare kostenniveaus ten
opzichte van hun BNP kunnen worden geidentificeerd. De studie toont
daarnaast dat klimaatbeleid kan leiden tot belangrijke nevenvoordelen, zoals
een afname van de emissies van zwavel- en stikstofoxide. Samengevat, toont
de studie aan dat in evaluatie van verdelingsregimes het niet voldoende is
alleen naar de initiele allocatie te kijken, maar dat ook de
bestrijdingkosten en consequenties voor energiehandel meegenomen moeten
worden. De voordelen van het meedoen in emissiehandel en het reduceren van
regionale luchtverontreiniging kunnen het mogelijk maken voor
ontwikkelingslanden om deel te nemen aan het reduceren van mondiale
broeikasgassen tegen lage kosten of zelfs opbrengsten. Echter, om de
politieke haalbaarheid te vergroten zullen zowel het niveau als de vorm van
de verplichtingen zo moeten worden gekozen dat economische risico's worden
vermeden.
The study documented here explores technical, economic and environmental implications of different post-Kyoto climate regimes for differentiation of future commitments that would lead to a stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations (Kyoto gases) in the atmosphere at 550 and 650 ppmv CO2-equivalents (S550e and S650e profile). Constrained by these two profiles, the implications of two different regimes, the Multi-stage and Per Capita Convergence approaches, are evaluated. For the Annex I regions, reduction targets are more dependent on the stabilisation level than on the type of regime chosen. In 2025, most regimes show emissions reductions for Annex I regions of 25-50% compared to their 1990 levels. For the non-Annex I regions, the results are generally more differentiated and differ strongly per regime and in time. Under all regimes, early participation of (major) non-Annex I regions is needed. Four groups of regions with similar efforts can be identified with respect to their abatement costs as percentage of GDP. The study also found that climate policies can induce significant co-benefits, such as a decrease in the sulphur and nitrogen oxide emissions. Overall, the analysis shows that in evaluating the implications of various regimes, it is not sufficient to evaluate only the allocation of the emissions compared to baseline. Abatement costs and changes in energy trade will also have to be assessed. The gains from participating in global-emissions trading and realising reduced air pollution damage and/or abatement costs can make early participation of (large) developing countries in global GHG control possible at low costs or even net gains. However, the level and form of commitment will have to be well chosen - and not be too strict - to balance economic risks and political viability.
The study documented here explores technical, economic and environmental implications of different post-Kyoto climate regimes for differentiation of future commitments that would lead to a stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations (Kyoto gases) in the atmosphere at 550 and 650 ppmv CO2-equivalents (S550e and S650e profile). Constrained by these two profiles, the implications of two different regimes, the Multi-stage and Per Capita Convergence approaches, are evaluated. For the Annex I regions, reduction targets are more dependent on the stabilisation level than on the type of regime chosen. In 2025, most regimes show emissions reductions for Annex I regions of 25-50% compared to their 1990 levels. For the non-Annex I regions, the results are generally more differentiated and differ strongly per regime and in time. Under all regimes, early participation of (major) non-Annex I regions is needed. Four groups of regions with similar efforts can be identified with respect to their abatement costs as percentage of GDP. The study also found that climate policies can induce significant co-benefits, such as a decrease in the sulphur and nitrogen oxide emissions. Overall, the analysis shows that in evaluating the implications of various regimes, it is not sufficient to evaluate only the allocation of the emissions compared to baseline. Abatement costs and changes in energy trade will also have to be assessed. The gains from participating in global-emissions trading and realising reduced air pollution damage and/or abatement costs can make early participation of (large) developing countries in global GHG control possible at low costs or even net gains. However, the level and form of commitment will have to be well chosen - and not be too strict - to balance economic risks and political viability.
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