Het ruimtebeslag van Nederlanders, 1995-2030. Achtergronddocument bij de MV5
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Type
Report
Language
nl
Date
2001-04-12
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Title
Het ruimtebeslag van Nederlanders, 1995-2030.
Achtergronddocument bij de MV5
Translated Title
Footprints of the Netherlands, 1995-2030.
Backgrounddocument to the MV5
Published in
Abstract
In dit achtergronddocument wordt beschreven hoe aan de
mogelijke ontwikkelingen van het ruimtebeslag van Nederlanders invulling is
gegeven in het licht van de milieutoekomstverkenningen onder de scenario's
European Co-ordination (EC) en Global Competition (GC). Voor het basisjaar
1995 is de rekenmethode gevolgd zoals die ook is toegepast bij de
Milieubalans 98 en 99. Voor de belangrijkste producten zijn
consumptiescenario's gebruikt of geconstrueerd. Daarnaast zijn er
technische ontwikkelingen in de productieketens, zowel in binnen- als
buitenland verondersteld, met name voor de landbouwproductiviteit. De
belangrijkste conclusies op basis van de resultaten van de in dit rapport
beschreven analyse van het mondiale ruimtebeslag door Nederlanders zijn als
volgt: 1) In beide scenario's is tussen 1995 en 2030 een lichte toename in
het ruimtebeslag te verwachten van circa 10,7 naar 12,3 miljoen ha in het EC
scenario en van 10,7 naar 13,2 miljoen ha in het GC scenario. Deze stijging
ligt geheel in het buitenland. 2) De stijging wordt vooral veroorzaakt door
toenemende vraag naar hout, waarbij geen productiviteitsstijgingen zijn
verondersteld in de natuurlijke systemen, die daarvoor de bron zijn. 3) In
het EC-scenario is er sprake van enigszins milieuvriendelijker
consumptiegedrag op het aspect ruimtebeslag, dit in tegenstelling tot het
GC-scenario. 4) De winst door productiviteitsontwikkeling in de landbouw is
redelijk in balans met de extra vraag naar
landbouwproducten.
This background document describes how the possible developments in the use of space is given substance in the light of the environmental outlooks under the European Co-ordination (EC) and Global Competition (GC) scenarios. The calculation method followed for the base year, 1995, is the same as the one used for the Environmental Balances of 1998 and 1999. Consumption scenarios are used or constructed for the most important products. Technical developments in production chains, particularly for agricultural productivity, are assumed for both inside and outside the country. Main conclusions based on the results of the development analysis described in this report are given here: 1) In both scenarios we can expect a slight increase in land use between 1995 and 2030, from about 10.7 up to 12.3 million ha under EC and 10.7 up to 13.2 million ha under GC. This rise occurs outside the Netherlands. 2) The rise is caused mainly by the increasing demand for timber, with no productivity increases assumed in the natural systems, which serve as the source of this timber. 3) Under the EC scenario we can speak of a more-or-less environmental-friendly consumer behaviour in relation to claim on space; this does not happen under the GC scenario. 4) Profits realised through the development of agricultural productivity is reasonably in balance with the extra demand for agricultural products.
This background document describes how the possible developments in the use of space is given substance in the light of the environmental outlooks under the European Co-ordination (EC) and Global Competition (GC) scenarios. The calculation method followed for the base year, 1995, is the same as the one used for the Environmental Balances of 1998 and 1999. Consumption scenarios are used or constructed for the most important products. Technical developments in production chains, particularly for agricultural productivity, are assumed for both inside and outside the country. Main conclusions based on the results of the development analysis described in this report are given here: 1) In both scenarios we can expect a slight increase in land use between 1995 and 2030, from about 10.7 up to 12.3 million ha under EC and 10.7 up to 13.2 million ha under GC. This rise occurs outside the Netherlands. 2) The rise is caused mainly by the increasing demand for timber, with no productivity increases assumed in the natural systems, which serve as the source of this timber. 3) Under the EC scenario we can speak of a more-or-less environmental-friendly consumer behaviour in relation to claim on space; this does not happen under the GC scenario. 4) Profits realised through the development of agricultural productivity is reasonably in balance with the extra demand for agricultural products.
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