Modelling human Puumala hantavirus infection in relation to bank vole abundance and masting intensity in the Netherlands.
Swart, Arno Bekker, Dick L Maas, Miriam de Vries, Ankje Pijnacker, Roan Reusken, Chantal B E M van der Giessen, Joke W B
Swart, Arno
Bekker, Dick L
Maas, Miriam
de Vries, Ankje
Pijnacker, Roan
Reusken, Chantal B E M
van der Giessen, Joke W B
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Series / Report no.
Open Access
Type
Article
Language
en
Date of publication
2017
Year of publication
Research Projects
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Journal Issue
Title
Modelling human Puumala hantavirus infection in relation to bank vole abundance and masting intensity in the Netherlands.
Translated Title
Published in
Infect Ecol Epidemiol 2017; 7(1):1287986
Abstract
This paper deals with modelling the relationship between human Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) infection, the abundance and prevalence of infection of the host (the bank vole), mast, and temperature. These data were used to build and parametrise generalised regression models, and parametrise them using datasets on these factors pertaining to the Netherlands. The performance of the models was assessed by considering their predictive power. Models including mast and monthly temperature performed well, and showed that mast intensity influences vole abundance and hence human exposure for the following year. Thus, the model can aid in forecasting of human illness cases, since (1) mast intensity influences the vole abundance and hence human exposure for the following year and (2) monitoring of mast is much more feasible than determining bank vole abundance.