Lessons and challenges in land change modeling derived from synthesis of cross-case comparisons
Pontius Jr., Robert Gilmore Castella, Jean-Christophe de Nijs, Ton Duan, Zengqiang Fotsing, Eric Goldstein, Noah Kok, Kasper Koomen, Eric Lippitt, Christopher D McConnell, William
Pontius Jr., Robert Gilmore
Castella, Jean-Christophe
de Nijs, Ton
Duan, Zengqiang
Fotsing, Eric
Goldstein, Noah
Kok, Kasper
Koomen, Eric
Lippitt, Christopher D
McConnell, William
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Open Access
Type
Book chapter
Language
en
Date of publication
2019-03-13
Year of publication
Research Projects
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Title
Lessons and challenges in land change modeling derived from synthesis of cross-case comparisons
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In: M Behnisch, G Meinel (eds.). Trends in spatial analysis and modeling: decison-support and planning strategies. - (Geotechnologies and the Environment (GEOTECH) ; vol. 19). - 2017; pp. 143-64
Abstract
This chapter presents the lessons and challenges in land change modeling that emerged from years of reflection and numerous panel discussions at scientific conferences concerning a collaborative cross-case comparison in which the authors have participated. We summarize the lessons as nine challenges grouped under three themes: mapping, modeling, and learning. The mapping challenges are: to prepare data appropriately, to select relevant resolutions, and to differentiate types of land change. The modeling challenges are: to separate calibration from validation, to predict small amounts of change, and to interpret the influence of quantity error. The learning challenges are: to use appropriate map comparison measurements, to learn about land change processes, and to collaborate openly. To quantify the pattern validation of predictions of change, we recommend that modelers report as a percentage of the spatial extent the following measurements: misses, hits, wrong hits and false alarms. The chapter explains why the lessons and challenges are essential for the future research agenda concerning land change modeling.
Description
Publisher
Cham : Springer, 2017