Projections of multi-gas emissions and carbon sinks, and marginal abatement cost functions modelling for land-use related sources
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Open Access
Type
Report
Language
en
Date
2003-01-29
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Title
Projections of multi-gas emissions and carbon sinks,
and marginal abatement cost functions modelling for land-use related
sources
Translated Title
Projecties van multi-gas emissies en koolstof
vastlegging, en de modellering van marginale kosten functies voor
landgebruik gerelateerde bronnen
Published in
Abstract
Dit rapport presenteert de schatting van kosten voor de
bestrijding van broeikasgasemissies. Het gaat daarbij om de emissies van
methaan (CH4) bij vuilstortplaatsen en van methaan (CH4) en lachgas (N2O)
bij afvalwaterbehandeling. Tevens worden de kosten geschat van
koolstofvastlegging in bos- of koolstofplantages. Dit gebeurt met behulp
van zogenaamde marginale kostencurves. Het potentieel van de
emissiereductie is gebaseerd op het GECS basisscenario voor landbouw en
landgebruik in de periode van 1995 - 2030 zoals dat is ontwikkeld met het
IMAGE 2.2 model. De kostensoorten van de verschillende maatregelen voor
emissiereductie zijn: investeringskosten, operationele kosten en ook
eventuele opbrengsten. Deze kosten en opbrengsten varieren op basis van
regionale schattingen van kosten voor investeringen en arbeid en besparingen
en opbrengsten. In het GECS baseline scenario stijgen de emissies afkomstig
van vuilstortplaatsen en afvalwater in vrijwel alle wereldregio's tussen
1995 en 2030 als gevolg van de snelle bevolkingsgroei en urbanisatie. Door
de toenemende emissie stijgt ook het reductiepotentieel aanzienlijk. Voor
het schatten van de graad van implementatie van maatregelen zijn er aannames
gebruikt op basis van literatuur gegevens. De kostensoorten die worden
onderscheiden bij de koolstofvastlegging in plantages zijn de kosten voor
land, het kweken van de bomen, grondbewerking, plantkosten en de jaarlijks
terugkerende onderhouds- en operationele kosten. Door het combineren van de
berekende jaarkosten per hectare voor elke regio met de gemiddelde
jaarlijkse koolstofvastlegging per hectare worden de kosten van de
koolstofvastlegging verkregen. De kosten zijn berekend als een gemiddelde
over een periode van 50 jaar. De voormalige Sovjet Unie heeft met afstand
het grootste potentieel voor koolstofvastlegging, tegen ook nog lage kosten.
De resultaten bij veronderstelling van 100% implementatie geven het
volledige potentieel weer, terwijl resultaten bij de lagere implementatie
graad aangeven wat het effect zou kunnen zijn van sociaal-economische en
andere barri{res die realisatie van bosaanplant voor koolstofvastlegging
verhinderen. De marginale kostencurves die zijn ontwikkeld, kunnen niet
zomaar worden gebruikt in combinatie met andere dan het GECS baseline
scenario, omdat zowel de potentiele emissiereductie als de graad van
implementatie van maatregelen aangepast dienen te worden aan de specifieke
scenariocontext. De marginale kostencurves ontwikkeld in deze studie en in
andere zogenaamde 'bottum-up' kosten studies zijn discontinue omdat wordt
aangenomen dat ze een voor een worden geimplementeerd op basis van hun
kosteneffectiviteit.
This report presents estimates of the costs of abatement of greenhouse gas emissions associated with landfills as a source of methane (CH4), sewage as a source of methane and nitrous oxide (CH4 and N2O, respectively) and carbon (C) sequestration in forest plantations. This is done in the form of so-called Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves. The potential for emission abatement is based on the GECS baseline scenario for the period 1995-2030 for agriculture, and land use developed with the IMAGE 2.2 model framework. The cost categories distinguished for the different emission reduction measures (ERM) include investment costs, and operation and maintenance costs, and possible revenues. These costs and revenues vary on the basis of regional estimates of costs for investments and labour, and savings and revenues. In the GECS baseline scenario the CH4 emissions from landfills and sewage strongly increase in most world regions between 1995 and 2030 as a result of fast population growth and urbanization. As a consequence, the potential emission reduction also increases. For the estimation of the implementation degree of ERMs, assumptions are used on the basis of literature data. Costs of C plantations include those for land, forest establishment, land preparation, plant material, planting, and operation and maintenance of the plantation. The costs of C sequestration are obtained by combining the annuitized costs per hectare for each region with the per hectare average annual C sequestration rate; These costs are calculated as the mean during a 50-year period. The former Soviet Union has by far the highest potential for C sequestration at relatively low costs. Results for full implementation indicate the C sequestration potential, while results for lower implementation degrees illustrate the effect of socio-economic and other barriers that prevent realization of carbon plantations. The MAC curves developed cannot be directly used in combination with other than the GECS scenario, since both the potential emission abatement and the degree of implementation of ERMs need to be adjusted to the different scenario context. The MAC curves developed in this study and in other bottom-up costing studies are discontinuous, because ERMs are assumed to be implemented one-by-one on the basis of their cost-effectiveness.
This report presents estimates of the costs of abatement of greenhouse gas emissions associated with landfills as a source of methane (CH4), sewage as a source of methane and nitrous oxide (CH4 and N2O, respectively) and carbon (C) sequestration in forest plantations. This is done in the form of so-called Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves. The potential for emission abatement is based on the GECS baseline scenario for the period 1995-2030 for agriculture, and land use developed with the IMAGE 2.2 model framework. The cost categories distinguished for the different emission reduction measures (ERM) include investment costs, and operation and maintenance costs, and possible revenues. These costs and revenues vary on the basis of regional estimates of costs for investments and labour, and savings and revenues. In the GECS baseline scenario the CH4 emissions from landfills and sewage strongly increase in most world regions between 1995 and 2030 as a result of fast population growth and urbanization. As a consequence, the potential emission reduction also increases. For the estimation of the implementation degree of ERMs, assumptions are used on the basis of literature data. Costs of C plantations include those for land, forest establishment, land preparation, plant material, planting, and operation and maintenance of the plantation. The costs of C sequestration are obtained by combining the annuitized costs per hectare for each region with the per hectare average annual C sequestration rate; These costs are calculated as the mean during a 50-year period. The former Soviet Union has by far the highest potential for C sequestration at relatively low costs. Results for full implementation indicate the C sequestration potential, while results for lower implementation degrees illustrate the effect of socio-economic and other barriers that prevent realization of carbon plantations. The MAC curves developed cannot be directly used in combination with other than the GECS scenario, since both the potential emission abatement and the degree of implementation of ERMs need to be adjusted to the different scenario context. The MAC curves developed in this study and in other bottom-up costing studies are discontinuous, because ERMs are assumed to be implemented one-by-one on the basis of their cost-effectiveness.
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