Invloed veranderingen in inkomens, autokosten en snelheden op autobezit en -gebruik, energiegebruik en emissies
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Series / Report no.
Open Access
Type
Report
Language
nl
Date
1996-04-30
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Title
Invloed veranderingen in inkomens, autokosten en
snelheden op autobezit en -gebruik, energiegebruik en
emissies
Translated Title
Influence of income and price changes on car
ownership and use, energy, and emissions
Published in
Abstract
Volgens het personenautomodel FACTS kennen
prijsmaatregelen een verschillende invloed op het autobezit en gebruik,
afhankelijk van de wijze waarop de maatregelen ingevoerd worden (procentueel
of een vast bedrag, algemene maatregel of gedifferentieerd naar
auto-/brandstoftype) en de kostenpost waarop de prijsmaatregel van
toepassing is (MRB, BPM, brandstof, rekeningrijden e.d.). Daarnaast blijkt
de invloed afhankelijk te zijn van de scenariocontext en de omvang van de
prijsmaatregel. Tenslotte is het effect van de maatregel in de tijd niet
constant. Indien twee prijsmaatregelen worden gecombineerd blijkt het
effect in 30% van de gevallen af te wijken van het 'verwachte' effect (het
gecombineerde effect bij 'onafhankelijkheid' van de maatregelen). Soms
treedt zelfs onderlinge tegenwerking op. Emissies van NOx en VOS zijn naast
veranderingen in de omvang van het autogebruik sterk afhankelijk van
eventuele wijzigingen in de aandelen diesel, benzine en LPG. Vanwege de
soms niet verwachte resultaten bij gecombineerde maatregelen en vanwege de
gevoeligheid van de NOx- en VOS-emissies voor veranderingen in de aandelen
benzine, diesel en LPG, verdient het aanbeveling beleidsvragen te
beantwoorden met behulp van modelsimulaties in plaats van gebruik te maken
van bekende simulaties en/of literatuur.
The FACTS car computer model is used for predicting the influence of income and price changes on car ownership and use, and energy and emissions. The great number of simulations show that the macro-economic scenario is seen to influence the effect of income and price measures. The influence of pricing measures on car ownership and use depend on how price increases are introduced, e.g. an absolute or percentage-wise price increase, a general increase for all car models or an increase that varies with the car model (fuel, weight). Further, the influence of pricing measures depends on the cost item increased (e.g. fuel and other variable prices, sales taxes on new cars and annual road taxes). Finally, the effect of a measure changes over time. If two measures are combined, the overall effect is in 30% of the cases seen to differ from the 'expected' effect (if measures are independent). Sometimes combined price measures can even counteract each other, causing less effect than only one pricing measure. Emissions of VOC and NOx depend on the number of kilometres driven and changes in the share of the total diesel, petrol and LPG. For these two reasons it is recommended to simulate effects of combined measures and effects on VOC and NOx emissions rather than to use existing model output and/or literature studies on effects.
The FACTS car computer model is used for predicting the influence of income and price changes on car ownership and use, and energy and emissions. The great number of simulations show that the macro-economic scenario is seen to influence the effect of income and price measures. The influence of pricing measures on car ownership and use depend on how price increases are introduced, e.g. an absolute or percentage-wise price increase, a general increase for all car models or an increase that varies with the car model (fuel, weight). Further, the influence of pricing measures depends on the cost item increased (e.g. fuel and other variable prices, sales taxes on new cars and annual road taxes). Finally, the effect of a measure changes over time. If two measures are combined, the overall effect is in 30% of the cases seen to differ from the 'expected' effect (if measures are independent). Sometimes combined price measures can even counteract each other, causing less effect than only one pricing measure. Emissions of VOC and NOx depend on the number of kilometres driven and changes in the share of the total diesel, petrol and LPG. For these two reasons it is recommended to simulate effects of combined measures and effects on VOC and NOx emissions rather than to use existing model output and/or literature studies on effects.
Description
NB! Bij dit rapport hoort een bijlage onder hetzelfde
nummer (306 p.) De pdf bevat rapport en bijlage (vanaf pagina
227).
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