Fysieke productieontwikkelingen in de industrie. Het gebruik van STREAM bij verkenningen
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Series / Report no.
Open Access
Type
Report
Language
nl
Date
2001-09-21
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Title
Fysieke productieontwikkelingen in de industrie. Het
gebruik van STREAM bij verkenningen
Translated Title
Physical production trends in industry: applying
STREAM to environmental outlooks
Published in
Abstract
De levenscyclus van materialen als staal, aluminium en
papier belast het milieu. Met name omzetting van grondstoffen naar
basismaterialen door o.a. kraak- en smeltprocessen kost veel energie. Op
Europese schaal dragen de productie en verwerking van materialen door de
basisindustrie voor circa 25% bij aan de totale broeikasgasemissie. Voor
Nederland met een relatief energie-intensieve sectorstructuur is dit aandeel
nog hoger. Om inzicht te hebben in de toekomstige ontwikkelingen in
milieudruk door materiaalstromen is inzicht in de fysieke
productieontwikkelingen in de basisindustrie van groot belang, immers
energiegebruik en emissies van stoffen zijn gekoppeld aan fysieke
productiehoeveelheden van materialen. Om die reden is door het CPB in
samenwerking met het RIVM het model STREAM ontwikkeld. Met STREAM kan voor
Nederland, West-Europa en wereld worden verkend hoe ontwikkelingen in
economie en (milieu)beleid doorwerken in de fysieke omvang, de locatie en de
inputefficiency (arbeid, kapitaal en energie) van de materialenproductie.
STREAM bevat de materialen staal, aluminium, papier, petrochemische
productie (monomeren, polymeren, oplosmiddelen) en kunstmest, en modelleert
zowel de productieontwikkelingen van materialen o.b.v. primaire
('maagdelijke') grondstoffen als de productie o.b.v. gerecyclede
materialen. STREAM bevat veel modelparameters, die zijn bepaald uit of
gekalibreerd zijn op monitoringsgegevens over de periode 1960-1993. Uit een
globale onzekerheids- en gevoeligheidsanalyse concluderen we dat de
belangrijkste onzekerheden en gevoeligheid van het Nederlandse 'blok' in het
model zijn te vinden in de gehanteerd import-export elasticiteiten. Deze
geven aan, dat een kostprijsverhoging in Nederland t.o.v. het buitenland
van 1% resulteert in een exportdaling van 6-8%. Gezien de onzekerheden in
het model beschouwen we de modelresultaten als indicatief en trendmatige
ontwikkelingen weergevend. ent STREAM een verdere groei van de vraag naar
en de productie van basismaterialen. De mate van groei verschilt per
beschouwd materiaal. De vraag naar materialen uit de basischemie, zoals
polymeren en oplosmiddelen, en de vraag naar aluminium groeien het sterkst
terwijl bijvoorbeeld de West Europese productie van kunstmest stagneert. De
productiegroei van basismaterialen in Nederland, grotendeels ten behoeve van
de export, houdt gelijke tred met die in de rest van West Europa. Hoewel de
energie-efficiency van de productie van basismaterialen toe blijft nemen,
mede door een toenemend aandeel secundaire productie, blijft ze achter bij
de productiegroei. Het industriele energiegebruik en de daarmee
samenhangende CO2 emissies nemen daarom toe. Tot op heden zijn de
milieukosten in de Nederlands industrie 1-2% van de totale productiekosten
en niet aantoonbaar hoger dan in omringende (concurrerende) landen. De
toekomstige kosten, bij het nu vastgestelde milieubeleid, lijken de
concurrentiepositie ook niet of beperkt aan te tasten. Dit beleid doet
industriele emissies in Nederland (verder) dalen, uitgezonderd CO2, maar
emissiedoelen voor 2010 blijven veelal buiten bereik. Rekenvarianten waarin
het milieubeleid wordt aangescherpt geven een verdere illustratie van de
'spanning' tussen milieubeleid enerzijds en verlies aan concurrentie-kracht
anderzijds.
The life cycle of materials like steel, aluminium and paper causes pressure on the environment. Particularly the cracking and melting processes used to convert raw materials cost considerable energy. At European level the production and processing of materials contribute about 25% of the total greenhouse gas emissions. This contribution is even higher in the Netherlands, with its relatively energy-intensive sector structure.l pressure from material streams, it is important to have insight in the physical production trends in the base industries. Indeed energy use and emissions of substances are coupled to quantities of materials needed for physical production. This was reason enough for the Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), in cooperation with the RIVM, to design the STREAM model. STREAM will allow these institutes to discover how at national, European and global levels developments in the economy and environmental policy influence the physical volume location and input efficiency (labour, capital and energy) in the production of materials. STREAM comprises the materials steel, aluminium, paper, petrochemical products(monomers, polymers and solvents) and artificial fertilizers. It models developments in both production with primary raw materials and production with recycled materials.calibrated on monitoring data over the period, 1960 to 1993. From a general uncertainty and sensitivity analysis we concluded that the most important uncertainties and sensitivities of the Dutch ' block' in the model were to be found in the current import and export elasticities. These indicate for example that a rise in the cost price of 1% in the Netherlands with respect to abroad would result in an export drop of 6-8%. In view of the uncertainties about the precise level of the effects, the model results give - mostly indicative - information on trend-like developments.the next decades, STREAM calculates a further growth in the demand for and the production of base materials. The extent of the growth varies, depending on the material in question. The demand for materials from basic chemistry, like polymers and solvents, and the demand for aluminium will grow the most rapidly, while the Western European production of artificial fertilizers will stagnate. The growth in production of base materials in the Netherlands, mostly for export, keeps pace with the rest of Western Europe. Although the energy efficiency of the production of base materials continues, partly because of the increasing contribution of secondary production, it falls behind growth in production. The overall industrial energy use and the associated CO2 emission will therefore rise in this scenario.ial sector, amounting to 1-2 percent of the total production costs, are not demonstrably higher than in the surrounding (competitive) countries. The future costs indicated in the environmental policy now set down, either do not, or barely, seem to affect the industry's competitive position. This policy will lead to a (further) drop in industrial emissions, except for CO2; however, emission targets for 2010 remain largely unattainable. Calculation variants with a stricter environmental policy further illustrate the 'tension' between environmental policy on the one hand and loss of the competitive power on the other.
The life cycle of materials like steel, aluminium and paper causes pressure on the environment. Particularly the cracking and melting processes used to convert raw materials cost considerable energy. At European level the production and processing of materials contribute about 25% of the total greenhouse gas emissions. This contribution is even higher in the Netherlands, with its relatively energy-intensive sector structure.l pressure from material streams, it is important to have insight in the physical production trends in the base industries. Indeed energy use and emissions of substances are coupled to quantities of materials needed for physical production. This was reason enough for the Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), in cooperation with the RIVM, to design the STREAM model. STREAM will allow these institutes to discover how at national, European and global levels developments in the economy and environmental policy influence the physical volume location and input efficiency (labour, capital and energy) in the production of materials. STREAM comprises the materials steel, aluminium, paper, petrochemical products(monomers, polymers and solvents) and artificial fertilizers. It models developments in both production with primary raw materials and production with recycled materials.calibrated on monitoring data over the period, 1960 to 1993. From a general uncertainty and sensitivity analysis we concluded that the most important uncertainties and sensitivities of the Dutch ' block' in the model were to be found in the current import and export elasticities. These indicate for example that a rise in the cost price of 1% in the Netherlands with respect to abroad would result in an export drop of 6-8%. In view of the uncertainties about the precise level of the effects, the model results give - mostly indicative - information on trend-like developments.the next decades, STREAM calculates a further growth in the demand for and the production of base materials. The extent of the growth varies, depending on the material in question. The demand for materials from basic chemistry, like polymers and solvents, and the demand for aluminium will grow the most rapidly, while the Western European production of artificial fertilizers will stagnate. The growth in production of base materials in the Netherlands, mostly for export, keeps pace with the rest of Western Europe. Although the energy efficiency of the production of base materials continues, partly because of the increasing contribution of secondary production, it falls behind growth in production. The overall industrial energy use and the associated CO2 emission will therefore rise in this scenario.ial sector, amounting to 1-2 percent of the total production costs, are not demonstrably higher than in the surrounding (competitive) countries. The future costs indicated in the environmental policy now set down, either do not, or barely, seem to affect the industry's competitive position. This policy will lead to a (further) drop in industrial emissions, except for CO2; however, emission targets for 2010 remain largely unattainable. Calculation variants with a stricter environmental policy further illustrate the 'tension' between environmental policy on the one hand and loss of the competitive power on the other.
Description
Publisher
CPB
Afdelingen energie en grondstoffen
Afdelingen energie en grondstoffen
Sponsors
RIVM
CPB