Air pollution, industrial activity and lung cancer mortality in the Netherlands; an ecological analysis
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Series / Report no.
Open Access
Type
Report
Language
en
Date
1992-11-30
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Title
Air pollution, industrial activity and lung cancer
mortality in the Netherlands; an ecological analysis
Translated Title
Luchtverontreiniging, industriele activiteit en
longkanker sterfte in Nederland; een ecologische
analyse
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Abstract
Abstract niet beschikbaar
In the Netherlands information about air pollution, industrial activity, cigarette smoking and lung cancer mortality was available for all 40 areas (COROP-regions) over the period 1969-1978. Differences in lung cancer mortality between the areas could be due to differences in smoking patterns, industrial exposure or air pollution. This was investigated using weighted linear regression models. Gender specific analyses were carried out, using the data on the 45-74 year old only. Within these ages the directly standardized lung cancer mortality rates (per 100,000) ranged from 151.7 to 301.7 (men) and 6.1 to 41.1 (women) between the regions. The regression model for lung cancer mortality and smoking explained little of the variance in the data. The regression coefficients from this model were used to "adjust" the mortality rates for smoking, and the corrected data were regressed on industrial activity and SO2, an indicator of air pollution. The regression for industrial activity resulted in a better explanation of the observed variance. The branches of industry with the highest regression coefficients were the petrochemical, chemical and construction industry and relevant for men only. The regression for SO2 resulted in a marginally better explanation of the observed variance. There was a clear cross correlation between air-pollution and industrial activity which obscures the results. The correlations found in this investigation are not necessarily causal but are consistent with other investigations. It is concluded that the value of ecologic analysis is limited not in the least due to the poor quality and availability of relevant data.
In the Netherlands information about air pollution, industrial activity, cigarette smoking and lung cancer mortality was available for all 40 areas (COROP-regions) over the period 1969-1978. Differences in lung cancer mortality between the areas could be due to differences in smoking patterns, industrial exposure or air pollution. This was investigated using weighted linear regression models. Gender specific analyses were carried out, using the data on the 45-74 year old only. Within these ages the directly standardized lung cancer mortality rates (per 100,000) ranged from 151.7 to 301.7 (men) and 6.1 to 41.1 (women) between the regions. The regression model for lung cancer mortality and smoking explained little of the variance in the data. The regression coefficients from this model were used to "adjust" the mortality rates for smoking, and the corrected data were regressed on industrial activity and SO2, an indicator of air pollution. The regression for industrial activity resulted in a better explanation of the observed variance. The branches of industry with the highest regression coefficients were the petrochemical, chemical and construction industry and relevant for men only. The regression for SO2 resulted in a marginally better explanation of the observed variance. There was a clear cross correlation between air-pollution and industrial activity which obscures the results. The correlations found in this investigation are not necessarily causal but are consistent with other investigations. It is concluded that the value of ecologic analysis is limited not in the least due to the poor quality and availability of relevant data.
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