The Interactive Scenario Scanner (ISS): a Tool to Suppport the Dialogue between Science and Policy on Scenario Development; Version 1
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Open Access
Type
Report
Language
en
Date
1997-11-30
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Title
The Interactive Scenario Scanner (ISS): a Tool to
Suppport the Dialogue between Science and Policy on Scenario Development;
Version 1
Translated Title
De Interactieve Scenario Verkenner, een instrument
ter ondersteuning van de dialoog tussen wetenschap en beleid over
scenario-ontwikkeling; versie 1
Published in
Abstract
Om lange termijn beleidsopties voor voor
klimaatverandering te verkennen is er behoefte aan de ontwikkeling en
evaluatie van lange termijn emissie scenario's. Om beleidsrelevant te zijn
moet bij de scenario's een onderscheid gemaakt worden tussen wereldregio's
op basis van hun ontwikkelingsniveau, hun bijdrage aan de problematiek, hun
kwetsbaarheid voor klimaatverandering en de mogelijkheden om emissies te
reduceren. Verder dienen de scenario's ook met rechtvaardigheidsprincipes
rekening te houden. Om al deze redenen is het belangrijk om beleidsmakers
bij de ontwikkeling van scenario's te betrekken. Op basis van de ervaringen
met beleidsmakers tijdens de reeks zogenaamde Delft Science Policy Dialogue
workshops is op het RIVM een nieuw instrument gemaakt, nl. de 'Interactieve
Scenario Scanner' (ISS). ISS is een computer model dat de interactieve
ontwikkeling en evaluatie van lange termijn scenario's ondersteunt waarbij
gebruik gemaakt wordt van de Kaya identiteit om emissies te berekenen, en de
klimaatindicatoren van de Veilige Landing Analyse om de effecten evalueren.
Het instrument kan worden gebruikt voor de ontwikkeling van zogenaamde
proto-scenario's, welke verder kunnen geanalyseerd met meer geavanceerde
energie en klimaatmodellen zoals IMAGE 2. De ervaring die is opgedaan met
de toepassing van ISS geven aan dat het inderdaad bruikbaar is om
beleidsmakers in een vroeg stadium bij de scenario ontwikkeling te
betrekken. Het bleek verder dat ISS een goed instrument is de communicatie
over de complexe klimaatproblematiek te verhelderen.
In order to explore long-term policy options for controlling climate change, there is a need to develop and evaluate long-term emission scenarios. If these scenarios are to be policy relevant, they should, with respect to developmental stage, distinguish between different world regions, their contribution to the problem, their vulnerability to climate change and their ability to control emissions. The scenarios should also deal with the question of a fair distribution of future emission budgets. Therefore it is important to involve policy makers in the development of these scenarios. On the basis of requests and comments from policy makers participating in the Delft Science Policy Dialogue workshops, a new software tool, called the Interactive Scenario Scanner (ISS), has been constructed at RIVM. ISS is a computer model that assists in the interactive construction and evaluation of long-term emission scenarios using the parameters of the Kaya Identity to define scenarios and the climate indicators of the Safe Landing Approach to scan their likely consequences for global climate change and its impacts. This tool can be used to construct proto-scenarios, which can then be further elaborated and analysed with such sophisticated energy and climate change models as IMAGE 2. Recent experiences with the application of ISS indicate that it will indeed be useful in involving policy makers at an early stage of scenario development. Moreover, ISS has also been shown useful in educating policy makers on the complexity of the problem and enhancing communication between, and among, scientists and policy makers.
In order to explore long-term policy options for controlling climate change, there is a need to develop and evaluate long-term emission scenarios. If these scenarios are to be policy relevant, they should, with respect to developmental stage, distinguish between different world regions, their contribution to the problem, their vulnerability to climate change and their ability to control emissions. The scenarios should also deal with the question of a fair distribution of future emission budgets. Therefore it is important to involve policy makers in the development of these scenarios. On the basis of requests and comments from policy makers participating in the Delft Science Policy Dialogue workshops, a new software tool, called the Interactive Scenario Scanner (ISS), has been constructed at RIVM. ISS is a computer model that assists in the interactive construction and evaluation of long-term emission scenarios using the parameters of the Kaya Identity to define scenarios and the climate indicators of the Safe Landing Approach to scan their likely consequences for global climate change and its impacts. This tool can be used to construct proto-scenarios, which can then be further elaborated and analysed with such sophisticated energy and climate change models as IMAGE 2. Recent experiences with the application of ISS indicate that it will indeed be useful in involving policy makers at an early stage of scenario development. Moreover, ISS has also been shown useful in educating policy makers on the complexity of the problem and enhancing communication between, and among, scientists and policy makers.
Description
Publisher
Sponsors
VROM
Nationaal Onderzoeksprogramma Mondiale Luchtverontreiniging en
Klimaatverandering