Dynamic shift in the dominant transmission route of clade Ib monkeypox virus across networks with sexual and nonsexual contacts
Miura, Fuminari Leung, Ka Yin Xiridou, Maria van Antwerpen, Marten Low, Nicola Hens, Niel Vakaniaki, Emmanuel Hasivirwe Wallinga, Jacco
Miura, Fuminari
Leung, Ka Yin
Xiridou, Maria
van Antwerpen, Marten
Low, Nicola
Hens, Niel
Vakaniaki, Emmanuel Hasivirwe
Wallinga, Jacco
Series / Report no.
Open Access
Type
Journal Article
Article
Article
Language
en
Date of publication
2026-04-01
Year of publication
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Title
Dynamic shift in the dominant transmission route of clade Ib monkeypox virus across networks with sexual and nonsexual contacts
Translated Title
Published in
Sci Adv 2026; 12(14):eaec1931
Abstract
The intensifying outbreaks of the novel monkeypox virus clade Ib in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have raised global concern about the potential for wider epidemic spread. Some clade Ib mpox outbreaks have shown a distinct transmission pattern in which transmission associated with both sexual and nonsexual contacts coexist. Here, we characterize these outbreaks in a network epidemic model, which incorporates sexual and nonsexual contacts, and project age- and route-specific transmission potentials under a wide range of scenarios. Our analyses suggest that the dominant route of transmission may shift over time from sexual to nonsexual contacts, which leads to larger epidemics. The age groups contributing most to overall infections and mortality also change over time, suggesting that target groups for intervention should be adjusted accordingly. For countries at risk of travel-associated mpox outbreaks, these findings highlight the importance of monitoring evolving monkeypox virus transmission patterns and interacting transmission routes to support timely and effective control measures.