The Future of the Global Environment: A Model-based Analysis Supporting UNEP's First Global Environment Outlook
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Open Access
Type
Report
Language
en
Date
1997-01-27
Research Projects
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Journal Issue
Title
The Future of the Global Environment: A Model-based Analysis Supporting UNEP's First Global Environment Outlook
Translated Title
De toekomst van het wereldmilieu: modelmatige scenario-analyse ten behoeve van de eerste wereldmilieuverkenning door UNEP
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Abstract
Dit rapport bevat de details van de scenario-analyse in de gelijktijdig verschijnende eerste Global Environment Outlook, onder auspicien van UNEP. Dit is een proeve van een wereldmilieuverkenning tot 2015 met een doorkijkje naar 2050. De studie is uitgevoerd ten behoeve van de tussenbalans van Agenda 21, vijf jaar na 'Rio' en tien jaar na 'Brundtland'. De scenario-analyse is gebaseerd op slechts een scenario, het Conventional Development scenario. Impliciet daarin is dat hoewel de gemiddelde welvaart stijgt, de verschillen in de wereld alleen maar toenemen. De analyse met behulp van gedetailleerde milieumodellen versterkt dat beeld. Het landbouwareaal breidt sterk uit om aan de toenemende vraag naar voedsel te voldoen, bij achterblijvende landbouwproductiviteit in Afrika en Azie. Van de natuurgebieden blijft niet veel over, en wat overblijft komt onder grote druk. De verhouding tussen beschikbaar en benodigd zoet water wordt ongunstiger, met sterke regionale verschillen. Handel in voedsel wordt een steeds belangrijker factor, zowel voor welvaart als voor de vraag waar op de wereld het milieu het meest belast wordt. De noodzakelijke transities op het gebied van gezondheid en demografische ontwikkelingen worden geillustreerd met case-studies over India, Mexico en Nederland. Milieubeheer zal gaandeweg een belangrijker factor worden bij het bevorderen van een gezonde levensverwachting in ontwikkelingslanden. Toekomstige generaties zullen steeds effectiever omspringen met energie, land en water. Maar hoewel het onderzochte scenario op dit punt tamelijk optimistisch is, zijn de veronderstelde efficiencyverbeteringen over het geheel genomen onvoldoende om de groei van de behoefte op te vangen. Aan de andere kant laten voorlopige berekeningen zien dat er technisch gesproken veel ruimte is om de druk op natuurlijke hulpbronnen te verminderen - aangenomen dat de politieke wil aanwezig is.<br>
This report documents the scenario analysis in UNEP's first Global Environment Outlook, published at the same time as the scenario analysis. This Outlook provides a pilot assessment of developments in the environment, both global and regional, between now and 2015, with a further projection to 2050. The study was carried out in support of the Agenda 21 interim evaluation, five years after 'Rio' and ten years after 'Brundtland'. The scenario analysis is based on only one scenario, Conventional Development. It features higher incomes and better health, but increasing regional inequalities. This pattern is reinforced by the analysis using detailed environmental models. Agricultural land use has to expand considerably in order to meet the growing demand for food, while agricultural productivity is not growing quickly enough in Africa and Asia. The little that remains of natural areas comes under heavy pressure. The ratio between water demand and availability becomes problematic in an increasing number of the world's catchment areas, although there are strong regional differences. Trade in food products becomes even more important than it is now, both for one's well-being and for the question on where the environmental pressures will occur. The necessary demographic and health transitions are illustrated with case studies for India, Mexico and the Netherlands. Protection of the environment will become an increasingly important factor in improving healthy life expectancy in developing countries. Future generations will be able to use energy, land and water more efficiently. Although the scenario analyzed in this study is rather optimistic in this respect. The assumed efficiency increases are by and large insufficient to meet the absolute growth in demand. On the other hand, there is technically speaking evidence given of considerable room for reducing the pressure on natural resources - assuming political determination, of course.<br>
This report documents the scenario analysis in UNEP's first Global Environment Outlook, published at the same time as the scenario analysis. This Outlook provides a pilot assessment of developments in the environment, both global and regional, between now and 2015, with a further projection to 2050. The study was carried out in support of the Agenda 21 interim evaluation, five years after 'Rio' and ten years after 'Brundtland'. The scenario analysis is based on only one scenario, Conventional Development. It features higher incomes and better health, but increasing regional inequalities. This pattern is reinforced by the analysis using detailed environmental models. Agricultural land use has to expand considerably in order to meet the growing demand for food, while agricultural productivity is not growing quickly enough in Africa and Asia. The little that remains of natural areas comes under heavy pressure. The ratio between water demand and availability becomes problematic in an increasing number of the world's catchment areas, although there are strong regional differences. Trade in food products becomes even more important than it is now, both for one's well-being and for the question on where the environmental pressures will occur. The necessary demographic and health transitions are illustrated with case studies for India, Mexico and the Netherlands. Protection of the environment will become an increasingly important factor in improving healthy life expectancy in developing countries. Future generations will be able to use energy, land and water more efficiently. Although the scenario analyzed in this study is rather optimistic in this respect. The assumed efficiency increases are by and large insufficient to meet the absolute growth in demand. On the other hand, there is technically speaking evidence given of considerable room for reducing the pressure on natural resources - assuming political determination, of course.<br>
Description
Publisher
Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVM
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Nairobi
Kenia
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Nairobi
Kenia
Sponsors
DGM
UNEP
UNEP