Discovering environmental health effects of transport scenarios through agent-based simulations
Sonnenschein, Tabea S Scheider, Simon de Wit, G Ardine Woodcock, James Vermeulen, Roel CH
Sonnenschein, Tabea S
Scheider, Simon
de Wit, G Ardine
Woodcock, James
Vermeulen, Roel CH
Series / Report no.
Open Access
Type
Journal Article
Article
Article
Language
en
Date of publication
2025-11-11
Year of publication
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Title
Discovering environmental health effects of transport scenarios through agent-based simulations
Translated Title
Published in
Environ Int 2025; 206:109866
Abstract
Urban planning can help tackle environmental health issues. We demonstrate that agent-based simulation can discover unintended as well as intended environmental health effects and social inequalities of intervention scenarios. We developed, calibrated and validated UrbHealth-ABM, an empirically grounded agent-based model of Amsterdam The Netherlands, integrating data and models of individual mobility choices, traffic, air pollution, physical activity and personal exposure. We used the 2019 parking price increase as a natural experiment, confirming the models' accuracy in predicting traffic reduction. Projections for the planned 2030 no emission zone show a significant reduction of nitrogen dioxide exposure for everyone and an increase in transport-related physical activity, especially for less affluent outer-city residents. However, disproportionate increases in their travel times raise equity concerns. Several 15-minutes city scenarios reveal that although driving may increase to distant destinations, nitrogen dioxide exposure decreases overall. Moreover, transport-related physical activity might decrease in the Amsterdam context due to shorter active travel distances, but travel time savings could be used for mitigation strategies.