Wachtlijstontwikkelingen in de zorg voor verstandelijk gehandicapten - nieuwe scenario's
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Series / Report no.
Open Access
Type
Report
Language
nl
Date
2000-05-11
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Title
Wachtlijstontwikkelingen in de zorg voor
verstandelijk gehandicapten - nieuwe scenario's
Translated Title
Waiting list developments in the care for the
mentally disabled - an update
Published in
Abstract
Dit rapport presenteert een actualisering van
modelsimulaties van de wachtlijst voor wonen in de verstandelijk
gehandicaptenzorg. Deze actualisering gaat uit van drie nieuwe
uitgangspunten: (1) een andere wachtlijstdefinitie; (2) een specificatie
van de uitstroom van de wachtlijst en (3) andere getallen van de
capaciteiten van intra- en semimurale instellingen voor wonen. Op grond van
deze uitgangspunten zijn vier nieuwe scenario's geformuleerd die van elkaar
verschillen in de het toekomstig aantal plaatsen in de instellingen. Het
scenario 'Demografische Groei' laat zien dat in de periode tot het jaar 2010
een groei van het aantal plaatsen in intramurale en semimurale instellingen
van 0,33% per jaar onvoldoende is om de wachtlijst te stabiliseren. Onder
de andere scenario's worden meer instellingsplaatsen gecreeerd. In 2003 is
onder het scenario 'Regeer Akkoord 1998 middelen' de wachtlijst bijna 20%
kleiner dan onder het scenario 'Demografische Groei'. Onder de scenario's
'Intensiveringen-140 miljoen' en '-183 miljoen' is de wachtlijst in 2003
respectievelijk ruim 50% en ruim 60% kleiner dan onder het scenario
'Demografische Groei' en wordt de gemiddelde wachttijd teruggebracht tot 1,5
a 2 jaar, 50-60% korter dan onder het scenario 'Demografische Groei'. Een
vergelijking is ook gemaakt met het referentiescenario uit het RIVM rapport
van november 1999 met betrekking tot de uitgangspunten (2) en (3).
Toepassen van de nieuwe informatie in het referentiescenario geeft een
ongunstige bijstelling van de wachtlijstontwikkeling omdat een deel van de
uitstroom uit de wachtlijst naar 'overige' zorg in feite semi- en
intramurale realisaties betrof. Ten opzicht van het rapport van november
1999 zijn in deze nieuwe berekeningen twee bronnen van onzekerheid nu
accurater gedefinieerd, andere bronnen van onzekerheid die in het rapport
worden genoemd blijven bestaan.
This report presents an update of model simulation results for application to the waiting list for residential care of the mentally disabled in the Netherlands. The update makes use of recently collected data to provide calculations based on new assumptions with respect to the waiting list definition, specification of the outflow of the waiting list and figures denoting the capacity of institutions for residential care. Based upon these assumptions, four new scenarios, each differing in its prediction of the future growth in an institution's capacity for residential care, have been formulated. The 'Demographic Development' scenario shows that a growth of 0.33% per year in the number of residential homes/institutions will not be sufficient for stabilising the waiting list. In the other scenarios, more places are created. The waiting list in 2003 is then about 20% lower in the 'Coalition Agreement 1998' scenario than in the 'Demographic Development' scenario. In the 'Intensify-1' and -'2' scenarios, the waiting list in 2003 shows respective drops of 50% and 60%, compared to the 'Demographic Development' scenario; the average waiting time is 50-60% lower than in the 'Demographic Development' scenario. A comparison was also made to the reference scenario in the November 1999 report with respect to the abovementioned assumptions (2) and (3). Applying the new information on waiting-list outflow to the reference scenario of the model has a negative effect on waiting list development because part of the outflow to 'other' types of care actually was to (semi) institutional care. Although the effect of two sources of uncertainty (specification of the outflow and the capacity in the period 1996-1998) has been lessened with respect to that noted in the November 1999 report, other sources of uncertainty named in that report are still effective (e.g. data from the waiting list registration and the semi-institutional registration).
This report presents an update of model simulation results for application to the waiting list for residential care of the mentally disabled in the Netherlands. The update makes use of recently collected data to provide calculations based on new assumptions with respect to the waiting list definition, specification of the outflow of the waiting list and figures denoting the capacity of institutions for residential care. Based upon these assumptions, four new scenarios, each differing in its prediction of the future growth in an institution's capacity for residential care, have been formulated. The 'Demographic Development' scenario shows that a growth of 0.33% per year in the number of residential homes/institutions will not be sufficient for stabilising the waiting list. In the other scenarios, more places are created. The waiting list in 2003 is then about 20% lower in the 'Coalition Agreement 1998' scenario than in the 'Demographic Development' scenario. In the 'Intensify-1' and -'2' scenarios, the waiting list in 2003 shows respective drops of 50% and 60%, compared to the 'Demographic Development' scenario; the average waiting time is 50-60% lower than in the 'Demographic Development' scenario. A comparison was also made to the reference scenario in the November 1999 report with respect to the abovementioned assumptions (2) and (3). Applying the new information on waiting-list outflow to the reference scenario of the model has a negative effect on waiting list development because part of the outflow to 'other' types of care actually was to (semi) institutional care. Although the effect of two sources of uncertainty (specification of the outflow and the capacity in the period 1996-1998) has been lessened with respect to that noted in the November 1999 report, other sources of uncertainty named in that report are still effective (e.g. data from the waiting list registration and the semi-institutional registration).
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