Investigating setting-specific superspreading potential and generation intervals of COVID-19 in Hong Kong.
Chen, Dongxuan Adam, Dillon C Lau, Yiu-Chung Wang, Dong Lim, Wey Wen Ho, Faith Tsang, Tim K Lau, Eric H Y Wu, Peng Wallinga, Jacco
Chen, Dongxuan
Adam, Dillon C
Lau, Yiu-Chung
Wang, Dong
Lim, Wey Wen
Ho, Faith
Tsang, Tim K
Lau, Eric H Y
Wu, Peng
Wallinga, Jacco
Series / Report no.
Open Access
Type
Journal Article
Article
Article
Language
en
Date of publication
2025-07-01
Year of publication
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Title
Investigating setting-specific superspreading potential and generation intervals of COVID-19 in Hong Kong.
Translated Title
Published in
Nat Commun 2025;16(1):5816
Abstract
Superspreading is an important feature of COVID-19 transmission dynamics, but few studies have investigated this feature stratified by transmission setting. Using detailed clustering data comprising 8647 COVID-19 cases confirmed in Hong Kong between 2020 and 2021, we estimated the mean number of new infections expected in a transmission cluster ( ) and the degree of overdispersion (k) by setting. Estimates of ranged within 0.4-7.1 across eight settings, with highest in the close-social indoor setting that an average of seven new infections per cluster was expected. Transmission was most heterogeneous (kâ=â0.05) in retail setting and least heterogeneous (kâ=â1.1) in households, where smaller k indicates greater overdispersion and superspreading potential. Point-estimates of the mean generation interval (GI) ranged within 4.4-7.0, and settings with shorter mean realized GIs were associated with smaller cluster sizes. Here, we show that superspreading potential and generation intervals can vary across settings, strengthening the need for setting-specific interventions.