Insights for the third Global Environment Outlook from related global scenario anlayses. Working paper for GEO-3
Bakkes JA Goldewijk CGM Meijer JR Rothman DS Vries HJM de Woerden JW van
Bakkes JA
Goldewijk CGM
Meijer JR
Rothman DS
Vries HJM de
Woerden JW van
Citations
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Series / Report no.
Open Access
Type
Report
Language
en
Date of publication
2001-04-09
Year of publication
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Title
Insights for the third Global Environment Outlook
from related global scenario anlayses. Working paper for
GEO-3
Translated Title
Inzichten voor de derde Wereldmilieuverkenning uit
verwante mondiale scenariostudies. Werkdocument voor
GEO-3
Published in
Abstract
Dit rapport maakt deel uit van de voorbereiding van de
derde Global Environment Outlook van UNEP. Het illustreert schaal en soort
van de milieu-effecten die GEO in beeld zou moeten brengen. De efecten
worden gekwantificeerd door materiaal dat is ontleend aan recente studies
over men of meer vergelijkbare scenarios. Omdat het de bedoeling is dat
GEO-3 de milieu-onderbouwing levert voor de Rio+10 milieutop in 2002 wordt
in dit werkdocument de suggestie gedaan om de analyse voor GEO-3 te richten
op de mogleijkheden voor synergie tussen milieubeleid en
ontwikkelingsbeleid. Verder worden drie samenvattende indicatoren
voorgesteld. De kwantificering in dit werkdocument heeft betrekking op
onderwerpen als demografische transitie en afhankelijkheidratio in de
bevolking; watertekorten; veranderingen in gewasopbrengst; de kans op
landdegradatie; en de achteruitgang van biodiversiteit. Speciale aandacht
is besteed aan regionale verschillen en aan informatie die van belang is
voor het schatten van veranderingen in kwetsbaarheid.
This report relates to the ongoing development of scenarios for the third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) of UNEP. It illustrates the scale and type of environmental impacts that GEO-3 needs to consider. It does so by quantifying impacts using existing, recent studies whose scenarios come closest to the current tentative global storylines for GEO-3. With a view to GEO-3;s envisaged role as input for the Rio+10 Earth Summit in 2002, this report suggests a focus for the GEO-3 scenario analysis on the potential for co-benefits between development and environment policies. Moreover, a set of three summary indicators is proposed, to reflect the impact of the scenarios on three domains of sustainable development. The quantification in the report addresses issues such as: the demographic transition and changing dependency ratios of populations; water shortages; changes in the yield of crops; risk of land degradation; and the loss of terrestrial biodiversity. Special attention is given to regional differentiation and no material that will help to estimate how vulnerability of humans and exosystems changes in the scenarios.
This report relates to the ongoing development of scenarios for the third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) of UNEP. It illustrates the scale and type of environmental impacts that GEO-3 needs to consider. It does so by quantifying impacts using existing, recent studies whose scenarios come closest to the current tentative global storylines for GEO-3. With a view to GEO-3;s envisaged role as input for the Rio+10 Earth Summit in 2002, this report suggests a focus for the GEO-3 scenario analysis on the potential for co-benefits between development and environment policies. Moreover, a set of three summary indicators is proposed, to reflect the impact of the scenarios on three domains of sustainable development. The quantification in the report addresses issues such as: the demographic transition and changing dependency ratios of populations; water shortages; changes in the yield of crops; risk of land degradation; and the loss of terrestrial biodiversity. Special attention is given to regional differentiation and no material that will help to estimate how vulnerability of humans and exosystems changes in the scenarios.
Description
Publisher
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Sponsors
DGM
UNEP