Van monetaire naar fysieke groei - het transformatiemodel - Achtergronddocument bij de Nationale Milieuverkenning 3
Citations
Altmetric:
Series / Report no.
Open Access
Type
Report
Language
nl
Date
1994-10-31
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Title
Van monetaire naar fysieke groei - het
transformatiemodel - Achtergronddocument bij de Nationale Milieuverkenning
3
Translated Title
From monetary to physical growth ; a
transformation model. Background document to the National Environmental
Outlook 3
Published in
Abstract
Voor de Nationale Milieuverkenningen is een
transformatiemodel ontwikkeld, waarmee fysieke scenario's voor de
Nederlandse economie kunnen worden afgeleid. Het model is specifiek
aangepast voor de Nationale Milieuverkenning 3. Het beschrijft de
toekomstige ontwikkeling van de nationale volkshuishouding in fysieke
eenheden op basis van twee economische toekomstbeelden (scenario's). Door
dematerialisatie, substitutie- en marktverzadigingsprocessen - met ieder hun
eigen trends en dynamiek - wijken de fysieke produktie-omvang en het
energieverbruik van een sector in veel gevallen sterk af van de ontwikkeling
van de sector in monetaire volume-eenheden zoals toegevoegde waarde. Er is
dus behoefte aan een interface tussen de monetaire ontwikkeling en de
fysieke ontwikkeling van de Nederlandse economie. De ontwikkeling van de
vraag naar non-energetische grondstoffen geeft een goede indicatie van de
ontwikkeling van de fysieke stromen van basis-produkten. Het CPB heeft voor
een aantal non-energetische grondstoffen een schatting gemaakt van de lange
termijn vraag naar deze grondstoffen. Het transformatiemodel geeft onder
andere op basis van het lange termijn grondstofverbruik een schatting van de
fysieke ontwikkeling van de produktie-activiteit van de Nederlandse
produktie- en consumptiesectoren. Het transformatiemodel zorgt hiermee voor
de koppeling van de economische verkenningen van het CPB met de
milieuverkenningen van het RIVM en vormt daarmee het begin van de keten van
milieuverkenningen (scenario-input).
In 1993 the RIVM evaluated Dutch environmental policy. The results of this evaluation were presented in the report National Environmental Outlook 3 1993-2015 (NEO3). The report describes possible future developments, e.g. in the economy, energy sector and traffic and transport sector. These developments, combined with present and expected policies, determine the future state of the environment. To calculate these developments clear insight is necessary into the physical flows of the Dutch national economy in the long term. The physical production figures serve as an interface between economic growth (expressed in monetary terms) and environmental pollution. A second reason for investigating physical flows is to find out what kind of structural trends in production and consumption are expected to occur (dematerialization) and what are the possibilities for altering them. In other words, economic growth and environmental pressures being decoupled and, if so, how can this process be enforced? Decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation is a first step in the direction towards sustainability. This report is a background document to the NEO3 and presents the calculations of the physical projections and the model that has been used.The first part of this report - based on a study by the Central Planning Bureau - contains a brief description of the relation between economic growth and the physical production of primary products. A simple demand relation is postulated and calibrated empirically. In the second part of the report the physical production figures are transformed to the input figures used in the various RIVM pollution models. The report ends with suggestions for model improvements, such as better projections of recycling, linkages with transport models and the creation of endogenous policy variables (e.g. resource levies).
In 1993 the RIVM evaluated Dutch environmental policy. The results of this evaluation were presented in the report National Environmental Outlook 3 1993-2015 (NEO3). The report describes possible future developments, e.g. in the economy, energy sector and traffic and transport sector. These developments, combined with present and expected policies, determine the future state of the environment. To calculate these developments clear insight is necessary into the physical flows of the Dutch national economy in the long term. The physical production figures serve as an interface between economic growth (expressed in monetary terms) and environmental pollution. A second reason for investigating physical flows is to find out what kind of structural trends in production and consumption are expected to occur (dematerialization) and what are the possibilities for altering them. In other words, economic growth and environmental pressures being decoupled and, if so, how can this process be enforced? Decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation is a first step in the direction towards sustainability. This report is a background document to the NEO3 and presents the calculations of the physical projections and the model that has been used.The first part of this report - based on a study by the Central Planning Bureau - contains a brief description of the relation between economic growth and the physical production of primary products. A simple demand relation is postulated and calibrated empirically. In the second part of the report the physical production figures are transformed to the input figures used in the various RIVM pollution models. The report ends with suggestions for model improvements, such as better projections of recycling, linkages with transport models and the creation of endogenous policy variables (e.g. resource levies).
Description
Publisher
Sponsors
DGM/SP
DGM/B