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    Model Catalogus Verkenningen 1997

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    Authors
    Nijs ACM de
    Vixseboxse E
    Series/Report no.
    RIVM rapport 408505003
    Type
    Report
    Language
    nl
    
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    Title
    Model Catalogus Verkenningen 1997
    Translated Title
    Model Catalog Outlook 1997
    Publiekssamenvatting
    In the involved institutes an inventory has been made of all the models applied in the latest outlooks by the planning agencies in The Netherlands. Complementary a diagram showing all the relations between the different models has been designed. Considering the total set of models some initial conclusions effecting further development of prognostic tools for the physical environment have been drawn. The spatial resolution along the modelling chain increases from the economic and demographic models (regional scale) towards the ecological and human effect models (500-m grid scale). For effect models detailed spatial information, especially on the allocation of the different activities e.g. new housing facilities and industrial areas given the economic and demographic developments in the future, is necessary. For the economic and demographic models this information is less relevant and as a result, in most cases, not available. In general, every model has been developed as an independent system which , given some input information, will estimate certain object variables. If the input is based on the output of previous models one should be aware of all the assumptions and simplifications in those previous models. Potential errors could evolve from the inconsistencies in these assumptions.
    Binnen de betrokken instituten van de verschillende verkenningen van 1996/1997 is een enquete gehouden naar de uitvoering van de modellen gebruikt voor het realiseren van deze verkenningen. Aangezien de meeste modellen voor hun invoer gegevens afhankelijk zijn van de resultaten van voorafgaande modelberekeningen is getracht de onderlinge relaties tussen de modellen te achterhalen. Dit heeft geresulteerd in een totaal overzicht van alle gebruikte modellen. De gehele set van modellen beschouwend zijn een aantal voorzichtige conclusies trekken die van belang zijn in de verdere ontwikkeling van de 'Leefomgevingsverkenner'. De ruimtelijke resolutie van de modellen neemt toe naarmate men verder in de keten komt. De economische en demografische modellen gaan veelal tot COROP niveau, terwijl de effect modellen op een 500m grid worden gemodelleerd. In zijn algemeenheid dient opgemerkt te worden dat de verschillende modellen uit de modelketen zijn ontwikkeld als zelfstandige systemen en men bij het gebruik van uitvoer in een volgende schakel bedacht dient te zijn op de aannames en modelmatige versimpelingen in de voorafgaande schakels die aanleiding kunnen zijn voor inconsistente of foutieve voorspellingen.
    Publisher
    Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVM
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10029/10023
    Collections
    RIVM official reports

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