• Achtergronden bij vervanging van de zoneringafstanden hoge druk aardgastransportleidingen van de N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie

      Laheij GMH; van Vliet AAC; Kooi ES; CEV; EMI (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVMGasunie, 2008-11-13)
      In the Netherlands, natural gas is transported by the N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie through 12,000 kilometres of high pressure pipelines. As a result of new insights, a new methodology has been developed to analyse the risks of these pipelines. Both the probability of damage to the pipeline, as the effect modelling have been revised. This research has been done by RIVM in cooperation with Gasunie. Research topics were the extent to which the build environment contributes to the ignition probability, and the consequences of the so-called 'Grondroerdersregeling' (excavation regulation). This regulation, which came into force on July 1, 2008, compels excavators to report digging activities. In addition, it regulates the handling of digging reports by pipeline owners. The law should result in a reduction of pipeline damages. One of the consequences of the new calculation methodology is that zoning distances around pipelines will change. This will lead to about 100 locations with dwellings too close to a pipeline. However, there are measures which, when taken, permit smaller zoning distances in such situations. Agreements with landowners about land utilization and a fence or bollards to protect the pipeline are examples of such measures. In this report the influence of these measures is estimated. Also it is investigated how to reduce the influence of corrosion on the societal risk.
    • Afstandentabel ammoniak koelinstallaties

      Uijt de Haag PAM; CEV (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVM, 2005-09-22)
      Bedrijven met aanzienlijke hoeveelheden gevaarlijke stoffen, zoals ammoniak, moeten een risicoanalyse maken voor de externe veiligheid. In deze analyse wordt berekend wat de risico's voor de omwonenden zijn ten gevolge van een mogelijk ongeval bij het bedrijf. De resultaten van de risicoanalyse worden vergeleken met de risiconormering en hieruit wordt een acceptabele afstand tussen het bedrijf en de omwonenden bepaald.In Nederland is een groot aantal ammoniakkoelinstallaties in gebruik. Om te voorkomen dat voor elke installatie afzonderlijk een risicoanalyse moet worden gemaakt, zijn voor een aantal representatieve installaties berekeningen uitgevoerd en is een afstandentabel samengesteld. Voor de meest voorkomende ammoniakkoelinstallaties worden nu geen aparte risicoberekeningen meer uitgevoerd, maar wordt de acceptabele afstand tot woningen uit de tabel afgelezen. De afstandentabel is opgesteld voor een ammoniakkoelinstallatie met maximaal 10.000 kg systeeminhoud, die voldoet aan de CPR richtlijnen en met een beperkt pompdebiet (minder dan 2 kg/s). Het externe veiligheidsrisico wordt voornamelijk bepaald door de onderdelen van de installatie die buiten liggen. Daarom is er onderscheid gemaakt in verschillende typen installaties, afhankelijk van de onderdelen van de installatie die buiten zijn opgesteld. De resultaten van de berekeningen laten zien dat de acceptabele afstand tussen een ammoniak koelinstallatie en woningen varieert van nul meter voor een kleine installatie die volledig in een machinekamer is opgesteld tot 95 meter voor een grote installatie die volledig buiten is opgesteld.De resultaten van de berekeningen zijn opgenomen in de Regeling Externe Veiligheid Inrichtingen (Staatscourant 23 september 2004, nr 183).
    • Afstandentabel ammoniak koelinstallaties

      Uijt de Haag PAM; CEV (2005-09-22)
      An operator of an establishment using large quantities of dangerous substances, like ammonia, is obliged to carry out a risk assessment, in which the mortality risk to the surrounding population in the case of an accident has to be calculated. The results of the assessment are used to derive an acceptable distance between the establishment and the neighbouring dwellings. Such establishments in the Netherlands include refrigerating installations using ammonia as cooling medium. To avoid carrying out large numbers of similar risk analyses, a few representative installations have been defined. Risk analyses were carried out for these installations and results summarized in conversion tables relating the type of installation to the acceptable risk distance. The conversion table is set up for installations with a maximum of 10,000 kg of ammonia as cooling medium and a limited pump flow of less than 2 kg/s. The installations must also be in compliance with the safety recommendations of the Committee for the Prevention of Disasters. The risk to the surroundings is caused mainly by the installation parts situated outside the engine room. Therefore installations are distinguished into three types with different combinations of installation parts situated outside the engine room. Calculations show the acceptable distance to vary between zero metres for a small installation completely situated in an engine room to 95 metres for a large installation situated completely in open air. The acceptable risk distances calculated here were implemented in Dutch legislation in 2004.
    • Benchmark study for a flammable liquid depot : comparison of two risk assessments

      Lenoble CJA; Kooi ES; Antoine FN; CEV (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVMIneris, 2012-07-12)
      In France and in the Netherlands, regulations apply to determine the risk of companies with toxic, flammable or explosive substances and mixtures to the surroundings. The outcomes of risk calculations are used for permit granting and for land-use planning. The way in which risk is calculated in France and in the Netherlands, differs significantly. The regulatory framework is different and technical hypotheses vary. Nevertheless, the risk outcomes for a fictitious storage depot of flammable liquids show considerable similarity. This is the result of a study carried out by the French INERIS and the Dutch RIVM. Public authorities can use the findings of this study to evaluate their frameworks for risk calculation. For this study, the risk of a fictitious storage depot of flammable liquids was calculated in accordance with the French and Dutch regulations. Several significant differences were observed. Differences in policy framework involve the norms for acceptance of risk and the way in which outcomes are used for permit granting and land-use planning. Furthermore, the methodology to be used is laid down in legislation in The Netherlands, while in France the methodology is chosen and justified by the permit-holder. Technical differences relate to the accident scenarios used, the probabilities assigned to these accident scenarios and the size of the area where damage may occur. The area where vulnerable objects are undesirable and where future vulnerable objects should be avoided is largely the same in the two risk assessments. The area where severe consequences from a potential accident have to be considered is comparable as well.
    • Blootstelling aan risicovolle situaties op het werk in 2006 en 2011

      Damen M; Sol VM; Wouters R; CEV (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVMRIGO, 2012-11-21)
      Commissioned by the Ministry of Social Affairs, RIVM investigated the probability for employees in the Netherlands to have an occupational accident in 2006 and 2011. This required analysing how long people are exposed to hazards, such as working on heights, working with electricity or machinery, falling objects, and aggressive people. The aim is to identify which workers are more at risk of having an accident. That way, the ministry, but also the employer can set priorities better in its policy and take the correct protective measures, if necessary. Compared to 2006, the number of hours per year that a worker was exposed to hazards is reduced by 3.7 percent. The study shows that an employee is exposed to an average 4.6 hazards simultaneously in a year. These numbers vary widely by profession. The top ranking jobs, with a 10.5 average exposure to hazards, are the machinists, mechanics, instrument makers and repairers. At the bottom are the professional groups of insurance agents, accountants, brokers and similar people with 2.5 hazards. Effectively improving occupational safety There seems to be an additional risk when employees are exposed to a large number of hazards. They appear to be best served when that number decreases. This is more effective than reducing the total number of hours in which they are exposed to hazards. Much variation in exposure at work The extent to which employees are exposed varies per hazard. Thus, for 90 percent of the employees, tripping and slipping is one of those hazards; in total the Dutch working population was 4.3 billion hours exposed in 2011. Fall from a staircase or slope comes second with a share of 62 percent of the employees and a total exposure of 353 million hours. That is an average of 80 hours per year for a person walking on stairs. Only 2 percent of the active population is exposed to the risk of dust explosions, but that concerns a large number of hours per person (on average 910 hours per year). Large differences between employees For the study, 25,000 people representative of the working population, were asked whether they had to deal with occupational hazards in the week preceding the survey. Combining information on exposure and injury and absence due to accidents also made it possible to identify which group of employees has almost all occurring accidents with absence. This group covers about 20 percent of the working population. This mainly concerns persons under 25, women, part-timers and less educated. As a sector the catering industry is overrepresented, as a group of professionals health care workers.
    • Evaluation of the Dutch QRA directives for storage and transportation of flammable liquids

      Kooi ES; Spoelstra MB; Uijt de Haag PAM; CEV (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVM, 2009-04-16)
      According to Dutch legislation, the possibility of incidents with human casualties has to be determined for storage and transportation of flammable oil products. Part of the assessment is the calculation of the size and location of the area wherein people may die. For this risk assessment a methodology is prescribed. The possibility of an explosion at oil storage facilities turns out to be sufficiently accounted for in the methodology. However, some improvements in the methodology are desired. This is established by RIVM research that was commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of VROM. The study was initiated by an unexpectedly large explosion at an oil storage facility of Hemel Hempstead, England, in 2005. A good risk calculation methodology is desirable because distances for buildings in the vicinity of such companies are determined from the calculated risks. These distances prevent that vulnarable destinations, such as homes and schools, are built at locations where the probability of death from such accidents is high. It is recommended to better specify in the risk assessment methodology how consequences of releases of mixtures should be calculated and to better align the requirements for storage and transportation of flammable liquids. Additionally, some recommendations have been done for specific parts of the consequence models. Besides the accident in Hemel Hempstead, other incident with storage and transportation of flammable oil products have been taken into account as well.
    • Evaluation of the Dutch QRA directives for storage and transportation of flammable liquids

      Kooi ES; Spoelstra MB; Uijt de Haag PAM; CEV (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVM, 2010-08-16)
      According to Dutch legislation, the possibility of incidents with human casualties has to be determined for storage and transportation of flammable petroleum products. Part of the assessment is the calculation of the size and location of the area wherein people may die. For this risk assessment a methodology is prescribed. The possibility of an explosion at a flammable liquid storage facility turns out to be sufficiently accounted for in the methodology. However, some improvements in the methodology are desired. This is established by RIVM research that was commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of VROM. The study was initiated by an unexpectedly large explosion at a flammable liquids storage facility at Hemel Hempstead, England, in 2005. A good risk calculation methodology is desirable because safety distances for buildings in the vicinity of such companies are determined from the calculated risks. These safety distances prevent that vulnerable destinations, such as homes and schools, are built at locations where the probability of death from such accidents is high. It is recommended to better specify in the risk assessment methodology how consequences of releases of mixtures should be calculated. Additionally, some recommendations have been done for specific parts of the consequence models. Besides the accident in Hemel Hempstead, other incident with storage and transportation of flammable petroleum products have been taken into account as well.
    • Groepsrisico en gebiedsgerichte benadering

      Vliet AAC van; Kooi ES; Post JG; CEV (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVM, 2005-05-02)
      De Staatssecretaris van Verkeer en Waterstaat heeft in november 2003 aan de vaste kamercommissie voor Verkeer en Waterstaat een verkenning toegezegd naar een 'gebiedsgerichte benadering' van het groepsrisico (de kans op een ongeval met een groot aantal slachtoffers) in relatie tot Schiphol. De aanleiding hiervoor is de voorgenomen aanpassing van de Luchtvaartwet. Dit rapport onderzoekt de mogelijkheid van een alternatief voor het huidige groepsrisicobeleid voor de omgeving van Schiphol. In de huidige praktijk wordt het groepsrisico namelijk berekend voor een gebied van 56 bij 56 kilometer. Afwegingen over ruimtelijke ordening en veiligheid op lokaal (gemeentelijk) niveau zijn op die schaal niet mogelijk. Onderzocht is een benadering vanuit gemeentelijk perspectief: hoe verhouden verschillende lokale risico's zich tot elkaar en hoe verandert het groepsrisico als nieuwe ruimtelijke plannen worden gerealiseerd in beeld te brengen? De conclusie is dat de in dit rapport voorgestelde benadering goede aangrijpingspunten biedt voor een gebiedsgerichte benadering van het groepsrisico. Een verdere uitwerking moet uitwijzen hoe dit tot een praktisch en bruikbaar instrument uitgebouwd kan worden.
    • Groepsrisico en gebiedsgerichte benadering

      van Vliet AAC; Kooi ES; Post JG; CEV (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVM, 2005-05-02)
      In November 2003 the Dutch Ministry of Transport promised the relevant parliamentary standing committee to conduct an exploratory study on the area-specific approach to societal risk (the probability of accident with a large number of victims) in relation to Amsterdam Schiphol Airport in view of the intended adaptation of the Dutch Aviation Law. This study, targeted at assessing alternatives for the current societal risk policy for the surroundings of Schiphol, led to an initial exploratory investigation on how local societal risk policy could be modelled. At present, the societal risk caused by aviation activities around Schiphol is calculated for an area of 56 by 56 kilometres, making balanced assessments of local environmental planning and safety in the municipalities around the airport impossible. Therefore societal risk was examined from municipal perspective to answer the questions on how different local risks relate to each other and how one can visualize the change in societal risk when new spatial plans are realized? The approach tested in this report is concluded to offer good opportunities, or at least pretexts, for an area-specific approach to societal risk. However, further studies or a follow-up investigation should reveal if a practical and valuable instrument can indeed be developed.
    • Groepsrisico op de kaart gezet. Hoofdrapport

      Wiersma T; Gooijer L; van Vliet AAC; Boot H; CEV (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVMTNO Bouw en Ondergrond, 2007-11-06)
      In collaboration with TNO, RIVM has elaborated two methods aimed at providing improved insight into the risk of a large number of individuals (societal risk) being involved in an accident in a certain area. The basic principle of these methods is the so-called area-specific approach in which societal risk is caused by hazardous materials present at a location, such as at industrial complexes or on units of a transportation system. By presenting societal risk on a map, this new approach provides increased insight, which was lacking in the graphical representation of the original, scientific presentation. Both methods present societal risk (SR) on a map: the SR-area map and the SR-contribution map. The SR-area map shows the level of the societal risk in a specified area; the SR-contribution map zooms in on the locations that contribute most to the societal risk. Both maps are supplements to the original presentation, which represents societal risk in graphical form. The maps are preferably used together when applied to policy-making, such as licence requests and land use planning. They can also be used by the appropriate governmental authorities for developing safety policy and in the justification process for policy-making on societal risk. The methods have been validated for usefulness in three case-studies, one of which is the transportation of hazardous materials by rail through the city of Dordrecht. The results of the study have been presented to all concerned parties. The study is described in two reports. The main report describes the usefulness of the methods. The explanatory report delves more deeply into the research methods used.
    • Groepsrisico op de kaart gezet. Toelichtend rapport

      Wiersma T; van Vliet AAC; Gooijer L; Boot H; CEV (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVMTNO Bouw en Ondergrond, 2007-11-06)
      In collaboration with TNO, RIVM has elaborated two methods aimed at providing improved insight into the risk of a large number of individuals (societal risk) being involved in an accident in a certain area. The basic principle of these methods is the so-called area-specific approach in which societal risk is caused by hazardous materials present at a location, such as at industrial complexes or on units of a transportation system. By presenting societal risk on a map, this new approach provides increased insight, which was lacking in the graphical representation of the original, scientific presentation. Both methods present societal risk (SR) on a map: the SR-area map and the SR-contribution map. The SR-area map shows the level of the societal risk in a specified area; the SR-contribution map zooms in on the locations that contribute most to the societal risk. Both maps are supplements to the original presentation, which represents societal risk in graphical form. The maps are preferably used together when applied to policy-making, such as licence requests and land use planning. They can also be used by the appropriate governmental authorities for developing safety policy and in the justification process for policy-making on societal risk. The methods have been validated for usefulness in three case-studies, one of which is the transportation of hazardous materials by rail through the city of Dordrecht. The results of the study have been presented to all concerned parties. The study is described in two reports. The main report describes the usefulness of the methods. The explanatory report delves more deeply into the research methods used.
    • Integrale beoordeling verdovingstechnieken pluimveeslachterijen. Indicatieve beoordeling van milieu- en andere aspecten op basis van literatuurstudie

      Morgenstern PP; Lambooij E; Baltussen WHM; IMG; CEV (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVMWUR, 2009-10-16)
      Most poultry slaughterhouses in the Netherlands stun poultry in electric water baths. An alternative method for stunning involves the use of carbon dioxide in a two-step/concentration procedure. The primary advantages of the gas anaesthesia method are associated with improved animal welfare and working conditions. Other aspects of poultry slaughterhouses, such as those pertaining to the environment and economics, can be either positively and negatively affected by this method. These are the results of a study conducted by the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI) and the Animal Sciences Group of the Wageningen University Research Centre (WUR). With respect to animal welfare, the advantage of gas stunning is that poultry are not restrained in shackles while conscious and there is no chance of the stunning being ineffective. The shackling of unconscious birds also has benefits in terms of working conditions, specifically in the amount of physical labour involved and the amount of dust released. Gas stunning is more favourable for the environment because it leads to the use of less water and causes fewer dust and odour problems. However, in comparison to electric stunning, gas stunning is associated with higher energy consumption. Gas stunning is more expensive in terms of initial acquisition/installation and operational costs (energy consumption), but it does result in a higher quality product (e.g. fewer broken bones and bruising). Some segments of the market may therefore view its introduction as a positive development (i.e. higher profits). The switch to gas stunning will directly affect the competitiveness among poultry slaughterhouses, with the larger, more productive slaughterhouses ultimately having the most benefit. The replacement of electric water baths by gas stunning will not influence consumer prices. The reason for conducting this research is that gas stunning methods have been incorporated in a European Directive (IPPC) as Best Available Technique (BAT) for stunning poultry, but there has been no in-depth study of the environmental consequences of these stunning techniques. The Ministry for Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment Inspectorate (VROM-Inspectorate) therefore requested the RIVM to carry out a detailed survey of the environmental and other issues associated with the various gas stunning techniques, as described in the literature, and to compare these techniques with electric stunning.
    • An international comparison of four quantitative risk assessment approaches : Benchmark study based on a fictitious LPG plant

      Gooijer L; Cornil N; Lenoble CL; CEV; mev (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVMFaculté Polytechnique de MonsIneris, 2012-01-30)
      The methods to determine external safety risks used in the United Kingdom, France, the Walloon Region of Belgium and the Netherlands are very different. The differences concern both the way the calculations are performed and the consequences calculated (such as deaths or health damage to persons). Despite the differences, the methods yield similar results in terms of the safety distances. This conclusion can be drawn from a benchmark study of a fictitious LPG storage plant performed by experts of these countries. However, similar results can lead to different policy implications. For instance, the safety distances in the Netherlands and France are used as limit values, whereas in Belgium and the United Kingdom they are used as guide values.
    • Kwantitatieve risicoanalyse voor arbeidsveiligheid. De ontwikkeling van een risicomodel en software

      Aneziris O; Baedts E de; Baksteen J; Bellamy LJ; Bloemhoff A; Damen M; Eijk V van; Kuiper JI; Leidelmeijer K; Mud M; Mulder S; Oh JIH; Papazoglou IA; Post JG; Sol VM; Uijt de Haag PAM; Whitehouse MA; CEV (WORM Metamorphosis ConsortiumNCSR DemokritosEDBCRondas Safety ConsultancyWhite Queen BVConsumer Safety InstituteRIGORPS Advies BVMinisterie SZWNIFVHCRM Ltd., 2009-08-27)
      The Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment (SZW) commissioned the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) to develop a model for calculating occupational risk in the Netherlands. This model is to provide employers with a choice of measures - or combination of measures - aimed at reducing the risk of employees suffering injury or death as a consequence of job-related incidents. The model can also be used to calculate the cost of these measures and the extent to which the risk has been reduced. As such, the model can be used to work out an optimal balance between the costs and the benefits of implementing risk-reducing measures. The model is based on extensive research that involved the analysis of a large number of job-related incidents documented in incident reports of the Labour Inspectorate. The results of the analysis were stored in a database, and the job-related incidents were subsequently classified into 36 different incident scenarios, such as Falling from heights. The incident scenarios were used to construct so-called bow ties, which describe the causes of an incident (which event led to its occurrence?) and its consequences (injury or fatality?). Possible measures that may help prevent an incident or mitigate its consequences are also mentioned in the bow ties. The bow ties also set a value that indicates the failure rate of these measures. Job-related activities and workplace conditions of the average Dutch employee were then analysed in terms of the extent to which employees are exposed to potentially risky situations or activities. The quality of the risk-reducing measures implemented at the workplace was also assessed. Given the large amount of data used to develop the model, it can be applied to calculate the risk of incidents on an activity, job, company or whole industry basis.
    • A literature review on safety performance indicators supporting the control of major hazards

      Bellamy LJ; Sol VM; CEV (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVMWhite Queen BV, 2012-07-25)
      Companies working with large amounts of hazardous substances fall under the Major Accident Risks Decree 1999. These companies must conform to specific requirements to prevent major accidents with serious consequences for man and environment. These companies are regularly visited by regulatory bodies such as the Labour Inspectorate. The inspectorate focuses on the risks to workers and evaluates whether these companies have a safety management system. It is important whether this safety management system is tailored to the risks involved and whether it works well. Indicators: how well a company manages risks The RIVM has explored whether it is possible to evaluate the major accident risks of a company based on safety performance indicators. Safety performance indicators are intended to provide information on the safety performance of a company. A set of indicators helps managers and employees of the company to focus on the important risk factors and helps the regulator determine how well the company is managing its risk controls and whether it is improving. Safety performance indicators should be tailor-made when used by a company but will need to be generally applicable, communicable and unambiguous when used by the regulator. Indicators may develop over time, based on experience as to which provide the most effective and efficient information about the safety performance of a company with respect to the potential for a major accident. Criteria for the development of safety performance indicators It is recommended to develop indicators based on a list of 30 criteria. For example, an indicator should have a causal link with the risk. In addition, a concrete action on the indicator may be attached, such as improvement interventions. The indicator set should also be sufficient in number and frequency to be able to identify trends. For the research, the scientific literature as well as guidelines from industry and regulators were explored.
    • Occupational health or occupational safety: which impact is larger?

      Uijt de Haag PAM; Bellamy LJ; Burdorf A; ter Burg W; Eysink P; Heederik DJJ; Klein Entink RH; Manuel HJ; Papazoglou IA; Pronk A; Smit LA; Tielemans E; Timmerman J; CEV; mev (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVMWhite Queen BVErasmus MCRotterdamIRASUtrecht UniversityTNODemokritosGreece, 2012-03-30)
      Employees can be exposed to different risks at the workplace, for example chronic exposure to harmful substances, physical stress and accidents. In 2010, the Occupational Health Impact Assessment (OHIA) model was developed to compare occupational health and occupational safety. The comparison is done by calculating their contributions to the burden of disease of employees. Model expanded with burden of disease due to hand eczema: In 2011, the OHIA model is expanded by the calculation of the burden of disease due to hand eczema. Furthermore, a few discussion points were resolved and the user requirements were specified for converting the model into a valuable software-tool. It is recommended to investigate the demand for the OHIA software-tool in industry sectors. Risks calculated with uncertainties: The model takes uncertainty into account to make comparisons more meaningful. To highlight the importance of uncertainty, the risks are calculated for four job titles with and without uncertainty. The job titles selected were tiler, road paver, carpenter and concrete driller, based on their high contribution to the total burden of disease in the construction sector. The occupational risks considered were the risks of accidents, lifting of heavy objects and exposure to silica. For tilers and road pavers, the exposure to silica has the highest contribution to the burden of disease if best estimates are used without uncertainty. However, taking uncertainty into account, the contributions of lifting heavy loads and accidents becomes comparable to the contribution of exposure to silica. For carpenters and concrete drillers, the uncertainties do not change the results significantly. The OHIA model is developed by RIVM in collaboration with experts from the University of Utrecht (IRAS), TNO, Erasmus Medical Center of Rotterdam and two consultants.
    • On-site natural gas piping : Scenarios and failure frequencies

      van Vliet AAC; Gooijer L; Laheij GMH; CEV; mev (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVM, 2011-06-20)
      RIVM has been commissioned by the Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment to derive failure frequencies and scenarios for above-ground gas pipelines at natural gas establishments. These are part of the natural gas infrastructure. Flange connections are considered separately. The failure frequencies and scenarios can be used to determine third-party risks, using the risk methodology for natural gas establishments which is currently being developed. This methodology will be part of the Reference Manual Bevi Risk Assessments, which is to be used according to the External Safety (Establishments) Decree. This study was conducted because the current manual does not specifically address these types of establishments. Two standard scenarios have been examined: leaks and ruptures. The failure frequencies for piping are derived from European data for transmission pipelines. This was decided because there is no useful specific information present for above-ground natural gas pipelines in literature or databases. Moreover, the Dutch gas industry data contain no relevant leaks or ruptures. For flange leaks, the failure frequency is based on statistics for the Dutch gas industry. Flange connections themselves cannot rupture. However, a leak from a flange connection can lead to a rupture of a pipe; it is therefore recommended to take this domino effect into account in risk calculations. This study also shows that the contribution of external events, such as vehicle impact and lifting operations, should be included in the accident scenarios and failure frequencies. It is recommended to validate current models for these events. Another recommendation is to improve Dutch accident databases to make them suitable for detailed analysis of incidents and to determine failure frequencies.
    • Ontwikkeling van het groepsrisico rond Schiphol, 1990-2010

      Post JG; Kooi ES; Weijts J; Nationaal Lucht en Ruimtevaartlaboratorium NLR; MNP; CEV (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVM, 2005-01-14)
      De kans dat er een groot aantal (een groep) slachtoffers valt onder omwonenden, door een vliegtuigongeluk in de regio's rond Schiphol, zal in 2005 ongeveer verdubbeld zijn ten opzichte van 1990. Naar verwachting zal dit risiconiveau de komende jaren, tot 2010, niet veel toenemen. Want er wordt geen substantiele groei van de luchtvaart verwacht en een grote toename van de bebouwing, op risicovolle locaties, kan met de huidige beleidsinstrumenten worden voorkomen. Een onderzoek naar het risico op een groot aantal slachtoffers, het zogeheten "groepsrisico", is onderzocht voor de jaren 1990, 2005 en 2010. De toename van het groepsrisico wordt ongeveer in gelijke mate veroorzaakt door de toename van de risico's van het vliegverkeer als door de toename van gebouwen, met name van bedrijven. Ook blijkt het groepsrisico sterk geografisch geconcentreerd (90 % van het risico is gelocaliseerd in 3 % van het bebouwde gebied). In voorgaande studies over Schiphol is de veiligheidssituatie steeds beoordeeld voor het hele studiegebied (56 bij 56 km). In die overigens gebruikelijke benadering wordt de kans op slachtoffers in de regio's rond de luchthaven bij elkaar geteld. Dit geeft een goed inzicht in de kans op een groep slachtoffers, maar geen inzicht waar die kansen groter of juist minder groot zijn. In deze studie is daarom tevens een benadering ontwikkeld voor de bepaling van het "lokale groepsrisico". Die resultaten geven goed inzicht in de risicosituatie van specifieke locaties. De toename van het groepsrisico is geen grote verrassing: in november 2003 heeft de Staatssecretaris van VROM in de Kamer al verklaard dat het streven naar een stand-still voor risicos ten opzichte van 1990 niet reeel zou zijn, gezien de groei van de luchtvaart en de ruimtelijke ontwikkeling. De Staatssecretaris heeft daarbij toegezegd dit nader te laten onderzoeken. Deze studie vult deze toezegging in. Hierbij is veel aandacht besteed aan het bevolkingsbestand en vooral ook de aanwezigen bij bedrijven, scholen, hotels en zorginstellingen. In combinatie met de 'lokale groepsrisico' benadering geeft dit rapport een veel beter en betrouwbaarder beeld van de risico situatie in relatie tot ruimtelijke ordening dan voorgaande studies.
    • Ontwikkeling van het groepsrisico rond Schiphol, 1990-2010

      Post JG; Kooi ES; Weijts J; MNP; CEV (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVMNationaal Lucht en Ruimtevaartlaboratorium NLR, 2005-01-14)
      The possibility of an aircraft accident with a large number of casualties on the ground in the Schiphol area is expected to be about twice as much in 2005 as it was in 1990. The risk can be expected not to grow much until 2010. This is because there is no substantial growth to be expected in air traffic, and building developments in risky locations can be controlled with recently developed policy instruments. A study on the risk for a large number of casualties, the socalled societal risk, has been carried out for the years 1990, 2005 and 2010. The increase in societal risk is due to the increase in air traffic risks in almost the same measure as to the increase in buildings, mainly those belonging to companies. Furthermore, societal risk is highly concentrated (i.e. 90% of the risk occurs in 3 % of the built area). In earlier studies the safety situation was always considered for the whole area (56 times 56 km) around Schiphol. In this usual approach the possibilities of there being casualties are summed for the whole area. This gives a good insight into the number of casualties; however, there is no information about the risk for specific locations. Therefore, in this study a method has been developed to determine the 'local societal risk'. The increase in societal risk is not really a big surprise: in November 2003 the Deputy Minister of the Department of Public Health, Spatial Planning and the Environment stated in the Dutch Parliament that given this large growth of air traffic, the standstill policy had never been realistic. He also promised to have this matter investigated. This study fulfils this promise. In the study, great care is given to population data and especially the population in industry, offices, schools, hotels and hospitals. In combination with the 'local societal risk' approach, this report will present a better and more reliable picture of the risk situation in relation to spatial planning than was done in earlier studies
    • Op weg naar een protocol voor het waarderen van maatregelen in een kwantitatieve risicoanalyse

      Uijt de Haag PAM; Mahesh S; Heezen PAM; Wolting AG; Reinders JEA; Ham JM; Vijgen L; CEV (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVMTNODCMR, 2009-03-27)
      The risks of the storage and the transport of hazardous goods for external safety in the Netherlands is set with a quantitative risk assessment. The present calculating method for this risk assessment not provides a protocol for the estimating of safety measures. In this report a protocol is proposed by which you can estimate the impact on the present quantitative risk assessment. The protocol is further worked out by an example system, namely the storage of lpg under pressure in spheres. With it is worked out to what extent the requisite information at this moment is available and usable for utilization of the protocol. The next relevant components are considered: best technical means of technical facilities, rating of organizing facilities and potential failure causes. From the research, as far as the example system is, the results are. There is a clear perception of the best technical means, and in the last decades these best technical means have not really changed. The investigated storage of lpg in the Netherlands is provided of technical safety facilities according to the guideline of the Publication Series on Hazardous Substances 18. The impact of organizing facilities cannot be assessed on a univocal and transparent way just yet. For this purpose additional research is necessary. At this moment it is not possible to make a fail-safe assessment of the comparative contribution from the different failure causes. So it is therefore not yet possible to convert the impact of a measure at a univocal way to reduction in the failure frequency. The Centre External Safety in cooperation with DCMR Environmental Department Rijnmond and Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research TNO has done research to improve this measure. In the conclusion there were different recommendations done for advanced research with the purpose a protocol that can pass through with a sufficient reliability.