• Post-Kyoto Toekomstbeelden Notitie ter ondersteuning advies "Post-Kyoto en Energiebeleid" van de Algemene Energie Raad

      Swart RJ; Linden N van der; MNV; Energieonderzoek Centrum Nederland ECN/Beleidsstudies (Energieonderzoek Centrum Nederland ECN, 2002-06-19)
      This report supports the report "Post-Kyoto en het Energiebeleid" of the Netherlands Energy Advisory Council (AER). The objective is to provide insights into the possible developments of international climate policies, viewed from the perspective of different images of the future with respect to socio-economic developments. How can various possible climate objectives (e.g. CO2 stabilization at 450, 550, 650 and 750 ppm) be achieved in such different worlds? Options for solutions are evaluated using three groups of criteria: cost-effectiveness, sustainability, and feasibility. How well options score on these various criteria is strongly dependent on the world view. For example, in an image of the future in which socio-economic developments are characterized by sustainability concerns, in which there is broad support for international co-ordination of policies, and in which environmentally sound technologies are developed and transferred quickly, independent on climate policy, achieving climate targets is easier and cheaper. The report shows that there are clear leads for energy policy to support international climate policy. The report focuses on the global level, but sometimes zooms in on the European and Netherlands level. It provides conclusions with respect to so-called "robust" options, i.e. options which could play a key role in various world views as well as for various climate objectives. These options include energy conservation and efficiency as well as increased usage of natural gas and renewables (biomass on the short to medium term and other renewables on the longer-term). Two other energy tracks which could contribute to the achievement of strict climate objectives - nuclear energy and CO2 capture and storage - are not robust in the sense indicated above, which would not imply that they cannot play an important role in specific world views in those regions where these options are little controversial. Finally, the report touches upon the role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, non-energy CO2 emissions, and burden sharing between north and south.