• Achtergronden bij: Milieubalans 96

      Braat LC (eds); S-V (AVVCBSDWWECNHIMHIKC-NKNMILEI-DLONLRRIKZRIZASC-DLO; SCP, 1996-10-01)
      An Environmental Balance for the Netherlands is drawn up yearly in accordance with the Environmental Management Act to describe the quality of the environment related to the environmental policy realised. Developments related to target sectors like agriculture, industry, energy and transport sectors, and consumers are assessed with respect to the change in emission levels of various substances. The state of environment for themes like climate change, acidification, air, water, soil, and groundwater quality is assessed, and the effects of environmental pressures on humans and the environment are presented. The results show that for most of the substances, emission levels decreased in the period 1985-1995, in spite of economic growth in the same period. Policy aimed at technical measures was successful. Energy intensity of the economy increased in 1995. Energy savings were eliminated by developing the volume of production and the use of more energy-intensive constituents of production and consumption. As a consequence of energy use CO2 emission increased in 1995. In spite of emission reductions realised, quality standards are still being exceeded for several substances. The level of air pollution in the Netherlands is coupled to demonstrable health effects. In cities, health effects and hindrance are increasing as a consequence of cumulation of stress factors like noise, bad odours, local air pollution and lack of space. This scientific background documentation on the conclusions described in the Environmental Balance 96 is particularly geared to experts and readers with an interest in science.
    • Achtergronden bij: Milieubalans 97

      S-V (AVVCBSDWWECNHIMHIKC-NKNMILEI-DLONLRRIKZRIZASC-DLO; SCP, 1997-04-16)
      An Environmental Balance for the Netherlands is drawn up yearly in accordance with the Environmental Management Act to describe the quality of the environment related to the environmental policy realised.
    • An assessment of the ECMWF reanalysis (ERA) air/sea fluxes using Wave and Ocean General Circulation Models

      Bonekamp H; Sterl A; Komen GJ; Burgers G; Oldenborgh GJ van; Janssen PAEM; NOP (KNMIde BiltEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), 2001-05-11)
      As a contribution to ongoing efforts in modelling of the coupled atmosphere/ocean system we have assessed global fields of air/sea fluxes of heat and momentum, produced as part of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast Reanalysis project (ERA). In the wave part of this project we made a 15-year simulation of the global wave climate, by forcing a reliable wave model with ERA winds, and by compiling a data base of wave observations. By comparing the wave model response with the observed wave heights we were able to assess the quality of the ERA surface winds, and associated momentum fluxes. In general, agreement was good, confirming the accuracy of ERA. However, high waves were underpredicted. We have given arguments that this underprediction results from the relatively low resolution of the atmospheric model. We have also studied the wind stress parameterization of the planned 40-year reanalysis (ERA40). In this reanalysis the aerodynamical roughness of the sea surface depends on the sea state which is calculated with the wave model. We have found that the ERA40 parameterization leads to a better representation of observed wind stress variability. In the ocean part of the project we assessed heat and momentum fluxes by forcing general circulation models of the ocean and by comparing the (upper) ocean temperature response with observations of the deeper ocean. Although the scope of our study is global we made a special study of the response of the Southern Ocean and of the Tropical Pacific. From our Southern Ocean study the main conclusion was that ERA has a realistic interannual variability in heat and momentum fluxes. In our Tropical Pacific study we developed a method which allows the improvement of both the fluxes and the ocean analysis.
    • Climate impacts from international aviation and shipping; State-of-the-art on climate impacts, allocation and mitigation policies

      Wit R; Kampman B; Boon B; Velthoven P van; Meijer E; Olivier JGJ; Lee DS - Wit R; Kampman B; Boon B (eds); KMD (CE-DelftKNMIRIVN/MNPManchester Metropolitan University, 2005-05-03)
      The international aviation and shipping sectors contribute significantly to climatic change and air pollution. Until now, however, Parties to the United Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have not been able to agree on a methodology to assign responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions from these sectors. In addition, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) have not been able to agree on any action to ensure effective implementation of mitigation policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from international aviation and shipping. However, both ICAO and IMO are investigating several policy options. These options may have implications for monitoring and reporting requirements as well as for the allocation of responsibility for international climate emissions from both sectors. It is for this reason that the present report focuses broadly on all these issues. Against this background, the Netherlands Research Programme on Climate Change (NRP-CC) asked CE Delft and its partners to provide an assessment of the latest policy developments and scientific findings on the following issues: Development of greenhouse gas emissions from international aviation and shipping. Impacts on climate; for aviation an update of scientific findings since the 1999 IPCC Special Report on Aviation and the Global Atmosphere. Allocation options. Development of mitigation policies at global and EU levels for aviation and shipping. Data availability and data requirements. The primary aim of this report is to inform representatives of Ministries of Transport and Environment of the EU-25 and other stakeholders on the latest scientific findings and policy developments with regard to the aforementioned issues. This may facilitate further policy discussions in the UNFCCC, within ICAO, IMO and the EU with respect to monitoring and allocation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international aviation and shipping and possible policies to mitigate those emissions.
    • Climate Projections for Europe: GCM intercomparisons and anlaysis of the predictability in practical and theoretical sense

      Brink HW van den; Selten FM; Doortmont DF; Opsteegh JD; Konnen GP; NOP (KNMIDe Bilt, 2001-12-10)
      The predictability of the European climate is investigated on three aspects. First, for 3 GCM models (i.e. ECHAM4-OPYC3, Hadcm3, CCCma) is determined how an enhanced greenhousegas-concentration influences the temperature, precipitation and pressure. This influence is determined for different spatial scales, i.e. global, regional (Europe) and local (De Bilt). The changes are expressed in a quality number, which compares the greenhouse signal with the capability of the models to describe the mean and the variability of the current climate. The second aspect considered is the way the probability density function (PDF) of the temperature changes due to an enhanced greenhousegas-concentration. The KNMI-model ECBilt shows for the end of this century not only a shifted, but also a narrower PDF. Specifically investigated is the effect on cold winter temperatures. For an event occurring once in 10 years, the shift is 1.2 WC, whereas the narrower PDF causes an extra 1.5 WC, being 2.7 WC in total. The third aspect is the surge level at the Dutch coast. Not only the effect of the greenhouse climate is investigated, but also is determined if the observed record can be used for estimating the surge level belonging to the (socially relevant) return period of 10.000 year. The research shows that the available records of 100 year deficit considerably. For the greenhouse climate, ECBilt indicates the excitation of so-called 'super-storms': storms of a extreme rareness, with an other intensity-frequency relation than the extreme storms we know from the current climate. For return periods longer than several centuries, the statistics of the extremes for wind and surge in the ECBilt greenhouse experiment are determined by these super-storms.
    • The effect of aerosol on closure of the regionale short-wave radiation balance

      Henzing JS; Knap WH; Stammes P; ten Brink HM; Kos GPA; Even A; Swart DPJ; Bergwerff JP; Apituley A; NOP (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVMKNMIDe BiltECNPetten, 2001-12-10)
      IPPC reports the aerosol radiative forcing per major aerosol category, like sulphate and fossil fuel derived carbon. Part of this carbon is reflective and part of the material (black carbon "soot") absorbs radiation. We find that in the Netherlands sulphate contributes some 30% to the reflection. Nitrate contributes even more; an estimated 35%. The local importance of nitrate is acknowledged in the new IPCC-TAR, but it is stated that insufficient data exist to assess its importance outside of the Netherlands. The amount of "fossil fuel" carbon could not be directly quantified. The reason is that it consists of thousands of different chemical compounds that all have different physicochemical properties. However, by deduction we found that its concentration is substantial. The mentioned three components, nitrate, sulphate and carbon, are thus the dominant aerosol components in the regional aerosol radiative forcing. As can be seen in the results, the forcing on partly cloudy days seems less because of a shorter sunshine duration. It should then be considered that on cloudy days the reflective power of the aerosol is higher due to the higher relative humidity and the associated uptake of water by the aerosol. This compensates for the shorter sunshine duration. Reflection of solar radiation caused by the aerosol is exerted by aerosol components that can be of a natural origin or produced by man. In our report we show, on the basis of the aerosol composition, that at least 85% of the aerosol is of a manmade origin and the aerosol reflection is therefore a forcing. The forcing is defined as the amount of solar radiation reflected back into space, and not available for heating of the earth due to the presence of manmade aerosol.<br>
    • Interbasin exchange, thermocline structure and the global overturning circulation of the (Atlantic) ocean: remote sensing and modelling

      Ruijter WPM de; Dijkstra HA; Leeuwen PJ van; Schouten MW; Vaart PCF van der; Weijer W; Drijfhout SS; NOP (Institute for Marine and Atmospheric ResearchUtrecht UniversityKNMIDe Bilt, 2001-10-26)
      Climate variability at decadal to centennial time scales is coupled to variations in the Ocean's global scale circulation and associated thermohaline transports. Interocean exchange of heat and salt around South Africa is thought to be a key link in the maintenance of the global overturning circulation of the ocean. It takes place at the Agulhas Retroflection, largely by the intermittent shedding of enormous rings that penetrate into the South Atlantic Ocean. This makes it extremely hard to estimate the inter ocean fluxes. Estimates of direct Agulhas leakage from hydrographic and tracer data range between 2 and 10 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3s-1). The average ring shedding frequency, determined from satellite information, is approximately six rings per year. Their associated interocean volume transport is between 0.5 and 1.5 Sv per ring. A number of Agulhas rings have been observed to cross the South Atlantic. They decay exponentially to less than half their initial size (measured by their available potential energy) within 1000 km from the shedding region. Consequently, most of their properties mix into the surroundings of the Benguela region, probably feeding directly into the upper (warm) limb of the global thermohaline circulation. The most recent observations suggest that in the present situation Agulhas water and Antarctic Intermediate Water are about equally important sources for the Benguela Current. Variations in the strength of these may lead to anomalous stratification and stability of the Atlantic at decadal and longer timescales. Modelling studies suggest that the Indian-Atlantic interocean exchange is strongly related to the structure of the wind field over the South Indian Ocean. This leads in the mean to a subtropical supergyre wrapping around the subtropical gyres of the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans. However, local dynamical processes in the highly nonlinear regime around South Africa appear to play a crucial role in inhibiting the connection between the two oceans. The regional bottom topography also seems to play an important role in locking the Agulhas Currents' retroflection. State-of-the-art global and regional "eddy-permitting" models show a reasonably realistic representation of the mean Agulhas system; but the mesoscale variability and the local geometrical and topographic features that determine largely the interocean fluxes still need considerable improvement. In this report we review most of the above mentioned aspects of the interocean exchange around South Africa and report on the main contribution from this NRP II project to: the estimation of the fluxes into the South Atlantic from different types of observations, our present level of understanding of the exchange's dynamics and forcing, its representation in state-of-the-art models, and, finally, the impact of the Indian-Atlantic fluxes on regional and global scale both within the Atlantic Ocean and in interaction with the overlying atmosphere as part of the global climate system.
    • Land Use, Climate and Biogeochemical Cycles: Feedbacks and Options for Emission Reduction

      Hutjes RWA; Dolman AJ; Nabuurs GJ; Schelhaas MJ; Maat HW ter; Kabat P; Moors E; Huygen J; Haarsma R; Ronda R; Schaeffer M; Opsteegh JD; Leemans R; Bouwman L; Busch G; Eickhout B; Kreileman E; Schaeffer M; Strengers B; Vries B de; Verhagen A; Vleeshouwers; Corre WJ; Jongschaap REE; Kruseman G; Ierland E van; Holtslag AAM; Ronda R; Willemsen F; Dorland C; Tol RSJ van; NOP (AlterraKNMIWageningen UniversityPlant Research InternationalIVM, 2002-03-01)
      This report describes a study that has tried to understand the coupling between the main driving forces of land use change and the emission of greenhouse gasses in the context of coupled land surface climate models. Studies related to investigating the main driving forces of land use change in Europe and assessing the budgets of the main greenhouse gasses in Europe were combined with sensitivity studies of land use change and climate at regional and global scale. These were linked to an integrated assessment model and selected economic analysis. Full integration of the parallel studies proved difficult in the timeframe of the project. The individual studies yield insight into the main driving forces of land use in Europe, the size of the biospheric GHG budget, the sensitivity of regional and global climate to land use change, and the global effects of trade in GHG mitigation control.
    • Milieubalans 2000. Het Nederlandse milieu verklaard

      MNV (AVVAlterraCBSCPBDWWECNHIMHKNMILEINLRRIKZRIZASCP, 2000-09-01)
      Abstract not available
    • Milieubalans 2001. Het Nederlandse milieu verklaard

      MNV (AVVAlterraCBSCPBDWWECNHIMHKNMILEINLRRIKZRIZASCP, 2001-09-01)
      Abstract not available
    • Milieubalans 2003. Het Nederlandse milieu verklaard

      Milieu- en Natuurplanbureau MNP - RIVM; MNP-NMD (AVVAlterraCBSCPBECNKNMILEINLRRIKZRIZARPBSCP, 2003-05-12)
      Abstract not available
    • Milieubalans 2004. Het Nederlandse milieu verklaard

      Milieu- en Natuurplanbureau MNP - RIVM; MNP-NMD (AVVCBSCPBECNKNMINLRRIKZRIZARPBWUR, 2004-05-12)
      Abstract not available
    • Milieubalans 96. Het Nederlandse milieu verklaard

      Braat LC (eds); S-V (AVVCBSDWWECNHIMHIKC-NKNMILEI-DLONLRRIKZRIZASC-DLO; SCP, 1996-09-30)
      An Environmental Balance for the Netherlands is drawn up yearly in accordance with the Environmental Management Act to describe the quality of the environment related to the environmental policy realised. Developments related to target sectors like agriculture, industry, energy and transport sectors, and consumers are assessed with respect to the change in emission levels of various substances. The state of environment for themes like climate change, acidification, air, water, soil, and groundwater quality is assessed, and the effects of environmental pressures on humans and the environment are presented. The results show that for most of the substances, emission levels decreased in the period 1985-1995, in spite of economic growth in the same period. Policy aimed at technical measures was successful. Energy intensity of the economy increased in 1995. Energy savings were eliminated by developing the volume of production and the use of more energy-intensive constituents of production and consumption. As a consequence of energy use CO2 emission increased in 1995. In spite of emission reductions realised, quality standards are still being exceeded for several substances. The level of air pollution in the Netherlands is coupled to demonstrable health effects. In cities, health effects and hindrance are increasing as a consequence of cumulation of stress factors like noise, bad odours, local air pollution and lack of space.
    • Nationale Milieuverkenning 4, 1997-2020

      Albers RAW (eds); MNV (AVVCBSCPBECNIKC-NKNMILEI-DLONLRRIKZRIZARPDSC-DLOSCP, 1997-07-31)
      Thanks to the Netherlands environmental policy, environmental pressure has declined in the last few years. The present proposed and intended policy efforts are, however, insufficient if the decline in emissions is to be retained in the decades after 2000. Production and consumption are increasing; transport and distribution functions, as well as the intensification in agriculture/factory farming, continue to play a substantial role. In the light of these developments great efforts will be necessary to bring about decreased CO2 levels. The NOx, NH3, phosphate and nitrogen emission levels also remain higher than intended. In view of the expected growth in the economy up to 2020, technological breakthroughs will be needed to realise the anticipated emission reductions. The target reductions for CO2 and NH3 can only be accomplished through considerable efforts in the areas of regulation, price measures and/or government investments. International coordination will be essential to achieving reductions in CO2 and NOx. The major concerns for the coming decades are climate change, conservation of natural areas, noise nuisance, air pollution in towns and cities, and drinking-water quality. Eutrophication , desiccation and use of pesticides keep the sectors for agriculture, nature conservation and groundwater catchment in a mutual state of conflict. Traffic in the cities continues to threaten desired environmental quality in the residential areas, for instance, due to emission of harmful chemical compounds and noise pollution. Another kind of spatial planning of activities to supplement technical measures may be the answer to further improving local environmental quality.
    • Nationale Milieuverkenning 5, 2000-2030

      MNV (AVVCBSCPBECNIKC-NKNMILEI-DLONLRRIKZRIZARPDSC-DLOSCP, 2000-09-11)
      Abstract not available
    • Ozon en Ultraviolette straling ; veranderingen, gevolgen en effecten

      Eggink GJ; Janssen LHJM; Woerd HJ van der; Kuik F; Peeck HH; LLO; LSO; KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch InstituutKNMIRijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en MilieuhygieneRIVM, 1995-06-19)
      This report gives an overview of recent scientific research from RIVM and KNMI on atmospheric ozone and solar uv-radiation. This research is aimed at a better understanding of the atmospheric ozone-changes, the processes causing these changes and the resulting UV-radiation at the earth surface. Since 1992 RIVM and KNMI perform atmospheric ozone and UV-measurements. The work of RIVM is especially aimed at the environmental and health-related aspects of UV. They also perform scenario studies of long-term effects of changes. KNMI concentrates more at the physical and atmospheric processes related to UV radiation. Apart from this they contribute to global ozone research. In this report the changes in the ozone layer and the progression in spectral UV-measurements in the previous decades are described. Extensive attention is paid to the health effects of UV-exposure and to the effects of policy measures.
    • Recente ontwikkelingen in de ozonlaag en de ultraviolette straling boven Belgie en Nederland

      Unknown author (Koninklijk Meteorologisch Instituut van BelgieKMI; Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch InstituutKNMIRijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en MilieuhygieneRIVM, 1993-08-19)
      Abstract not available
    • Representation of the seasonal hydrological cycle in climate and weather prediction models in West Europe

      Dolman AJ; Soet M; Ronda RJ; Hurk BJJM van den; Stricker JNM; Feddes RA; Bruin HAR de; Holtslag AAM; NOP (AlterraWageningen UniversityThe NetherlandsKNMIBilthovenThe Netherlands, 2001-11-19)
      This report is the final report of the project "Representation of the Seasonal Hydrological Cycle in climate and Weather Prediction models in west Europe (NRP project 951246)". The report describes the methodology used to unravel the influences of the land surface on the atmosphere, in particular rainfall and temperature. 1-Dimensional SVAT models are tested against observations and new parameterizations for soil hydrology and canopy atmosphere exchange are developed and implemented in the land surface model of a Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RAMCO). New maps of soil and vegetation properties are developed and used in sensitivity studies. These studies show effects of these new parameters on soil moisture storage and timing of evaporation. Europe-wide these differences are small, but regionally they appear important. Also an unexpectedly close relation between soil moisture, evaporation and rainfall was found in the weather of Europe.
    • Research on a mechanism by which enhanced UV-radiation of the active sun affects weather and climate

      Schuurmans CJE; Tourpali K; Dorland R van; NOP (Utrecht UniversityIMAUUtrechtKNMIDe Bilt, 2001-11-23)
      The aim of this study was to investigate the degree of climate response to changes in the UV radiation of the active sun during the 11- year solar cycle, and to examine the physical mechanisms involved, with the use of an interactively coupled chemistry- General Circulation Model (GCM). The solar forcing is represented by changes in incident irradiance, with solar fluxes adjusted in the model's spectral intervals, according to the difference between observed solar maximum and solar minimum conditions. Results so far, based upon a model run of 10 years, show that enhanced UV results in increases of stratospheric ozone, associated with temperature increases and seasonally varying changes in the zonal wind structure. The simulated changes are in reasonable agreement with observed changes in the stratosphere between solar minimum and solar maximum conditions. Changes in the troposphere include an increase of the tropical easterlies in all months and a banded structure of zonal wind changes at higher latitudes. The latter have also been found in similar model experiments elswhere. Simulated temperature changes in the upper troposphere are mainly positive, but near the surface also large areas of cooling are found. This brings us to the general conclusion that regionally climate response to enhanced UV might be significant, but on a global scale, e.g. on global mean temperature, it is most probably small. It is very likely that dynamical processes are responsible for the response of the troposphere, but the precise nature of these remains as yet unclear.
    • Survey of Climate Change Scenario Studies

      Beersma J; Fransen W; Klein Tank A; PB-NOP; KNMI (KNMIDe Bilt, 1996-05-31)
      A programming study is performed to determine the availability of climate change scenarios for impact studies. It is based on a study of literature and on consultations of scientists involved in the development and the use of climate change scenarios. On the basis of the data requirements of the impact modellers, three types of impact studies are distinguished: single-site studies, multi-site studies and regional studies. The various techniques to construct climate change scenarios are discussed in terms of scientific and pragmatic analyses of strengths and weaknesses of the methodologies. Five suitable approaches for the construction of climate change scenarios are identified. These are: GCM-based transformation, regional modelling, National Research Programme (NRP) I transformation and statistical downscaling either as a separate method or in combination with weather generators. The availability and the applicability of the five methods is explored with emphasis on impact studies concerning the Netherlands and Europe. All methods require substantial tailoring to the specifications of the various impact studies. It is noted that tailoring for single-site studies and tailoring for multi-site studies require different approaches. Finally, the state-of-the-art on scenarios as described in the IPCC 1995 assessment is outlined.