• Climate Change and Vector-Borne Diseases. A global and site-specific assessment

      Nijhof S; Koenraadt S; Takker W; Githeko A; Martens P; Vries P de; Schneider P; Kovats S; NOP (International Centre for Integrative StudiesMaastricht UniversityThe NetherlandsKenia Institute for Medical ResearchKisumuKenyaLaboratory of EntomologyWageningen UniversityThe NetherlandsLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUnited KingdomInternational Centre for Insect Physiology and Ecology (ICIPE)NairobiKenya, 2001-10-26)
      An increased incidence of vector-borne diseases is to be expected as a result of climate change. The projected changes in climate and climate variability will have a profound impact on the ecology of vector populations. In order to estimate the extent to which such events might occur, the effects of climate change on the distribution and epidemiology of malaria and dengue are simulated, using a total of 17 climate scenarios (of which 5 are presented in this report). The indicators used in this study give a clear picture of the change in risk of malaria and dengue in the coming 80 years. 'Transmission potential' (TP) is used to estimate the effect of climate on the intensity of malaria risk for three time slices (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). All climate scenarios an increase of malaria and dengue transmission potential as climate changes. Also a change of the seasonality of these diseases is to be expected. The field study in western Kenya underlines the potential changes that may occur under predicted climate change scenario's. Increased temperatures lead to shorter mosquito development times and more mosquito generations per year. Should this be accompanied by more events of intense rainfall, malaria in the Kano plains will increase, and the people of the Kericho hills will experience more episodes of malaria epidemics than at present. Such events can, as we have seen, alarming effects on the malaria incidence in mostly African children.