• Analysis of the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the export revenues of OPEC member states and on the oil import requirements of non-Annex I countries

      Linden NH van der; Linde C van der; Lako P; Rooijen SNM van; NOP (Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN)PettenNetherlands Institute of International Relations ClingendaelDen Haag, 2000-08-14)
      The members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) continue to voice their concerns about the adverse impact of the implementation of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies on the oil exporting countries. Referring to Article 4.8 of the UNFCCC, the OPEC is of the opinion that the agreed reduction targets will lead to a significant decrease in revenue from petroleum exports, with the result that OPEC countries are unfairly affected by measures proposed to mitigate global climate change. The current study aims to provide quantitative information on the impact of global climate change abatement policies on the revenues of OPEC countries generated from the export of oil. The outcome of this study shows that OPEC countries, but also other net-oil exporting countries, will incur a substantial decline in potential oil income as a result of the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. Depending on how OPEC reacts to a decline in oil demand of the Annex I countries, the estimated reduction in oil export revenues resulting from the implementation of Kyoto agreements will be between 15 and 30% compared to the reference scenario. The most important recommendation of the study then is to establish a sort of fund, managed by the World Bank and the IMF, which can be used to support the balance of payment (IMF) or the restructuring of the petroleum economy (World Bank) in the oil producing countries. The resources for this fund can be generated by putting a levy on oil in the Annex I countries or by making money available for this fund in some other way.
    • Climate Options for the Long-term (COOL) - Nationale Dialoog

      Hisschemoller M; Kerkhof M van de; Annema JA; Folkert R; Kok M; Spakman J; Faaij A; Treffers DJ; Jager D de; Jeeninga J; Kroon P; Seebregts A; Spanjersberg M; NOP (Free University of AmsterdamInstitute for Environmental StudiesUniversity of UtrechtEcofysUtrechtECNPettenSpanjersberg & PEDen Haag, 2002-12-23)
      The National Dialogue in the COOL project aimed at developing insights and recommendations for Dutch long term climate policy, both on content and process. The dialogue was carried out in four dialogue groups, which addressed four sectors of the Dutch economy: housing & construction, industry & energy, agriculture & nutrition and traffic & transport. Forquestion: What is needed to realise reductions up to 80% by 2050 (as compared to 1990 levels) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in The Netherlands? The general picture that comes from the stakeholder dialogue was that emission reductions up to -80% by 2050 are imaginable. Not all dialogue participants are (equally) optimistic on the feasibility of such reductions, though. There is considerable doubt as to whether these reductions will be possible without causing or aggravating other problems than climate change here or elsewhere. This leads to the conclusion that -80% may come in reach for The Netherlands in a socially acceptable manner if, next to overcoming many social, institutional and psychological barriers, in specific areas major technological breakthroughs will be realised. European and Dutch governments are supposed to take a leading roll in this respect, but it is doubted if they can do this. This conclusion indicates on the one hand to a mild optimism, on the other hand to persistent doubts and concerns related to the desirability of certain options and the capabilities of government.
    • The effect of aerosol on closure of the regionale short-wave radiation balance

      Henzing JS; Knap WH; Stammes P; ten Brink HM; Kos GPA; Even A; Swart DPJ; Bergwerff JP; Apituley A; NOP (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVMKNMIDe BiltECNPetten, 2001-12-10)
      IPPC reports the aerosol radiative forcing per major aerosol category, like sulphate and fossil fuel derived carbon. Part of this carbon is reflective and part of the material (black carbon "soot") absorbs radiation. We find that in the Netherlands sulphate contributes some 30% to the reflection. Nitrate contributes even more; an estimated 35%. The local importance of nitrate is acknowledged in the new IPCC-TAR, but it is stated that insufficient data exist to assess its importance outside of the Netherlands. The amount of "fossil fuel" carbon could not be directly quantified. The reason is that it consists of thousands of different chemical compounds that all have different physicochemical properties. However, by deduction we found that its concentration is substantial. The mentioned three components, nitrate, sulphate and carbon, are thus the dominant aerosol components in the regional aerosol radiative forcing. As can be seen in the results, the forcing on partly cloudy days seems less because of a shorter sunshine duration. It should then be considered that on cloudy days the reflective power of the aerosol is higher due to the higher relative humidity and the associated uptake of water by the aerosol. This compensates for the shorter sunshine duration. Reflection of solar radiation caused by the aerosol is exerted by aerosol components that can be of a natural origin or produced by man. In our report we show, on the basis of the aerosol composition, that at least 85% of the aerosol is of a manmade origin and the aerosol reflection is therefore a forcing. The forcing is defined as the amount of solar radiation reflected back into space, and not available for heating of the earth due to the presence of manmade aerosol.<br>
    • Referentieraming broeikasgassen. Emissieraming voor de periode 2001-2010

      van den Wijngaart RA; Ybema JR; MNV (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVMEnergieonderzoek Centrum Nederland (ECN)Petten, 2002-01-27)
      Results are presented of the project 'reference projection for energy and greenhouse gases' carried out by RIVM and ECN for the Ministries of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment, and of Economic Affairs. The reference projection considers emission of greenhouse gases in the Netherlands in 2010. Emission sources and trends up to 2000 were analysed, and expected developments with respect to economic growth and energy supply for the period 2001-2010 updated. This led to new estimates for the greenhouse gas emissions in 2010. Differences with previous scenario studies were analysed, and the effects of both announced and implemented policy measures assessed. Emissions of CO2 were analysed separately from other greenhouse gases. The total expected greenhouse gas emissions for the Netherlands in 2010 are concluded to be 225 Mton CO2 equivalent, which represents a near stabilisation for 2000 as the net result of a 12 Mton increase in CO2 emissions and a 9 Mton decrease in other greenhouse gases. The expected development of domestic emissions appears favourable with respect to the current policy goal: an emission target stated in the Kyoto agreement of -6 % in relation to the 1990/1995 level and the realisation of half the emission reductions through domestic (inland) measures. The uncertainty in total annual CO2 -equivalent emissions in 2010 is estimated at 14 Mton (95% confidence interval) due to identified uncertain future societal developments and possible future improvements in greenhouse gas emission inventories. These results will be used to evaluate the current progress with respect to the national climate change policy in the Netherlands, described in "The Netherlands' Climate Policy Implementation Plan, Part I: inland measures"(June 1999).<br>
    • Sharing the burden of greenhouse gas mitigation

      Jansen JC; Battjes JJ; Ormel FT; Sijm JPM; Volkers CH; Ybema JE; Torvanger A; Ringius L; Underdal A; NOP (ECNPettenCICEROOslo, 2001-11-23)
      This report presents an overview of the major findings of the joint CICERO-ECN project on the issue of differentiation of greenhouse gas emission mitigation targets among countries after the so-called first budget period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008-2012). More particularly, the report provides (i) an analysis of the main principles of fairness relevant to the issue of differentiating emission mitigation targets among countries, (ii) a brief evaluation of several burden sharing proposals launched since the mid-1990s, (iii) a new, multi-sector convergence framework in support of future negotiations to reach agreement on national greenhouse gas emission mitigation targets (iv) an indication of its cost implications, and (v) some concluding remarks and suggestions for further research.
    • Sources, Regional Scaling and Validation of Methane Emissions from the Netherlands and Northwest Europe

      Berdowski JJM; Draaijers GPJ; Janssen LHJM; Hollander JCTh; Loon M van; Roemer MGM; Vermeulen AT; Vosbeek M; Visser H; NOP (TNOApeldoornThe NetherlandsECNPettenThe NetherlandsKEMAArnhemThe Netherlands, 2001-11-19)
      The agreed emission reductions in the Kyoto Protocol require methods to establish the quality and accuracy of the inventory data and to monitor compliance with the Protocol. The IPCC Expert Meeting in November 1997 in the Netherlands concluded that an assessment of inventory data quality was strongly supported by independent checks and additional analysis of uncertainties in the emissions inventories. In this study, carried out in the frame of the Dutch National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change three connected validation procedures have been applied for a methane emission inventory, namely (i) the comparison of emission inventories, (ii) the comparison of modelled with observed methane concentrations, and (iii) the comparison of bottom-up emission estimates with inversely modelled emission estimates. There is a good overall correspondence between the consistent bottom-up METDAT emission inventory and the National Communication data. However, on a country level and on a source category level large discrepancies could been found. The analysis of concentration measurements gives a clear indication of the contribution from the different areas. Time series analysis as such appeared not to be suitable for verification purposes in this study. The technique of emission verification by modelling methane concentrations with the bottom-up estimated emission data as input for the model and comparing the results with measured concentrations has been proven quite successful, at least on a regional scale. The technique applied so far is however not able to indicate whether the individual sources are estimated realistically as well. At present, the technique of inverse modelling has not proven to be robust enough to produce stable results of satisfactory accuracy on a regional scale. At least, there is a lack of sufficient measurement data, e.g. from neighbouring countries and a need for the improvement of background concentration data (by global models).