• Approaches to analyse interactions of climate change, acidification and ozone

      Ierland EC van; Ignaciuk A; Kroeze C; Brink C; Schmieman E; Builtjes P; Roemer M; Mayerhofer P; NOP (Wageningen UniversityTNO-MEPApeldoorn, 2002-02-27)
      This project focuses on the interactions of climate change, acidification, eutrophication, tropospheric ozone, stratospheric ozone and some other air pollutants (like soot). The following research questions have been addressed: (i) Which interactions exist between acidification, tropospheric ozone formation, climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion? (ii) How can these interactions be analysed either by means of existing models, or by combining parts of these models, or by new model structures focusing on these interactions? (iii) Which data is required at the appropriate spatial and temporal scales for these themes, and how can these different scales be integrated? (iv) Which information is already available in existing emissions inventories and existing models? For a combined analysis of climate changes and transboundary air pollution, it is proposed to first decouple climate change calculations from air pollution calculations in an analysis at the global level, in order to determine emission reduction targets for greenhouse gases for Europe. For this purpose, calculations could first be performed with MERGE or ECHAM for climate change in order to establish emission targets for Europe. Next, the optimized emission levels (and of course also the calculated concentration fields and changed meteorological conditions) should be used as one of the restrictions in an optimisation analysis at the European level, using a newly developed model, based on elements of the RAINS model and the more detailed LOTOS system for transboundary air pollution. Subsequently with this model optimisation runs should be performed to calculate optimal emission reduction strategies for transboundary air pollution and emissions of greenhouse gases, considering the interactions as identified in this study.
    • Assessment of a GM-crop impact on soil systems using the DNA barcode-based tool for nematode community analysis

      Vonk JA; Mulder C; Vervoort MTW; Brolsma KM; Posthuma L; de Goede RGM; LER (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVMWageningen University, 2012-11-19)
      The RIVM (Dutch abbreviation for the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) has developed with the Wageningen University (WUR) a new technique by which the soil quality can be determined accurately, the so-called nematode DNA barcode tool. This molecular method provides faster and more detailed information about disturbances in soil quality and the possible causes. This can be done because this novel information is combined with data on the overall processes by which crops are grown. Examples are the use of pesticides and effects on the soil systems of agricultural techniques such as ploughing and fertilizing. In this way a better understanding of the influences on soil quality of agricultural practices, such as genetically modified (GM) crops, can be achieved. With the new method, the nematode DNA is determined with a special technique (quantitative PCR), by which both species (occurrence) as numbers (densities) can be derived in the soil. The nematode population reveals the important processes ongoing in the soil that support soil quality. Examples thereof are the fertility and the extent to which organic material is broken down. The DNA barcode tool is an addition to the traditional time-consuming technique, where the nematode population is determined using a microscopic examination. The method was developed on behalf of the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) and the Secretary of Infrastructure and the Environment (IenM). Due to the increasing human population higher food production is needed globally, which implies more agricultural land for more crops. Not every management technique to support such a productivity increase, such as GM-crops, might be realized because they have to be safe for the environment. Hence, the fertility of the soil appears to become affected. It is therefore important to avoid possible negative effects by new forms of agriculture with a careful evaluation. Even in a broader European context, there is more emphasis on the importance of vital ecosystems belowground and on the quality of soils. One example is the 'Common Agricultural Policy' which the European Union has been promoting.
    • Climate Change and Vector-Borne Diseases. A global and site-specific assessment

      Nijhof S; Koenraadt S; Takker W; Githeko A; Martens P; Vries P de; Schneider P; Kovats S; NOP (International Centre for Integrative StudiesMaastricht UniversityThe NetherlandsKenia Institute for Medical ResearchKisumuKenyaLaboratory of EntomologyWageningen UniversityThe NetherlandsLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUnited KingdomInternational Centre for Insect Physiology and Ecology (ICIPE)NairobiKenya, 2001-10-26)
      An increased incidence of vector-borne diseases is to be expected as a result of climate change. The projected changes in climate and climate variability will have a profound impact on the ecology of vector populations. In order to estimate the extent to which such events might occur, the effects of climate change on the distribution and epidemiology of malaria and dengue are simulated, using a total of 17 climate scenarios (of which 5 are presented in this report). The indicators used in this study give a clear picture of the change in risk of malaria and dengue in the coming 80 years. 'Transmission potential' (TP) is used to estimate the effect of climate on the intensity of malaria risk for three time slices (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). All climate scenarios an increase of malaria and dengue transmission potential as climate changes. Also a change of the seasonality of these diseases is to be expected. The field study in western Kenya underlines the potential changes that may occur under predicted climate change scenario's. Increased temperatures lead to shorter mosquito development times and more mosquito generations per year. Should this be accompanied by more events of intense rainfall, malaria in the Kano plains will increase, and the people of the Kericho hills will experience more episodes of malaria epidemics than at present. Such events can, as we have seen, alarming effects on the malaria incidence in mostly African children.
    • Climate OptiOns for the Long term (COOL)-Synthesis Report

      Berk M; Hisschemoller M; Hordijk L; Metz B; Mol APJ; Tuinstra W; NOP (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVMWageningen UniversityEnvironmental Policy GroupFree University of AmsterdamInstitute for environmental Studies, 2002-12-23)
      The aim of the COOL project was to develop strategic notions how drastic reductions of GHG emissions in the Netherlands can be achieved in the long term, in an European and global context, using a method of participatory integrated assessment. The project brought together in a dialogue setting scientists, policy makers and stakeholders representing different groups and different interests in society. Experiences and insights from different groups were thus available for the process. In the dialogue, which was set up as a series of workshops, long term policy options for significant greenhouse gas emissions reductions and their feasibility have been analysed. As Dutch climate policy is dependent on international policy developments, the COOL-project incorporated next to the national Dutch level, also a dialogue on the European and on the global level.<br>
    • Climate OptiOns for the Long-term (COOL) - European Dialogue

      Andersson M; Tuinstra W; Mol APJ (Wageningen UniversityEnvironmental Policy Group, 2002-12-23)
      This report contains the results of the European Dialogue of the COOL (Climate Options for the Long Term) project. The European Dialogue is one of the three Dialogues within the COOL project, the other being the Nation Dialogue (focused on the Netherlands) and the Global Dialogue. The European Dialogue brought together some 40 non-governmental and governmental stakeholders from different countries around Europe to assess in a participatory way the strategy for far reaching greenhouse gas emission reductions in Europe in the long term (till 2050). The European Dialogue was organized in two major groups, the energy sector and the transport sector, which have met four times for 1-2 days in one and a half year. Following a backcasting methodology and with input from scientific institutions both groups have discussed and developed options that can contribute significantly to 80% GHG emission reductions in 2050, compared to 1990 levels. The final outcomes of this participatory process with a very diverse group of stakeholders are two strategic visions, which are shared by the participants of these dialogues. The strategic visions show that 80 GHG emission reductions seems technologically possible over a time period of 50 years. The major bottlenecks are to be found rather in non-technological factors: institutions, price signals, behavioral changes, and international developments.
    • Climate OptiOns for the Long-term (COOL) Evaluating the Dialogues

      Hisschemoller M; Mol APJ (eds); NOP (Free University of AmsterdamInstitute for Environmental StudiesWageningen UniversityEnvironmental Policy Group, 2002-12-23)
      The COOL (=Climate OptiOns for the Long term) project has a twofold objective:- Developing strategic notions how drastic reductions of GHG emissions in the Netherlands can be achieved in the long term, in an European and global context, using a method of participatory integrated assessment.- Making recommendations for improving the methodology of participatory integrated assessment, in particular regarding (1) stakeholder participation, (2) utilisation of knowledge by stakeholder participants, and (3) facilitating the linking of the three geographic and political levels (NL, EU, global) by stakeholders.This report focuses on the second objective of the COOL project. The COOL project consists of three subprojects: a national, an European and a Global dialogue. The three projects have starting points in common, but have developed throughout their running in partly different directions. All three projects are evaluated with respect to their dialogue structure, the utilisation of knowledge by participants in the participatory integrated assessment and with respect to the interactions between the three projects. From these evaluations lessons are drawn how in the future participatory integrated assessment projects can be better organised and how they can better contribute to - in this case - climate change policy making.
    • Effect of climate change on the hydrology of the river Meuse

      Wit M de; Warmerdam P; Torfs P; Uijlenhoet R; Roelin E; Cheymol A; Deursen W van; Walsum P van; Ververs M; Kwadijk J; Buitenveld H; NOP (Wageningen UniversityKMIBrusselsCarthago ConsultancyThe NetherlandsAlterraThe NetherlandsWL DelftRIZAArnhem, 2001-11-23)
      This study describes historical observations and future estimates of the discharge regime of the river Meuse, with reference to climate change. It specially deals with low flows and integrates results obtained from analyses of observed records and simulations performed with hydrological models.
    • Emission reduction of non-CO2 greenhouse gases

      Jager D de; Hendriks; CA; Byers C; Brummelen M van; Petersdorff C; Struker AHM; Blok K; Oonk J; Gerbens S; Zeeman G; NOP (EcofysUtrechtTNO-MEPApeldoornLUW-MTWageningen University, 2001-11-23)
      In this study an international inventory is made of the emission reduction technologies and potentials for Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases (NCGGs) in such a way that they can be used for policy formulation (both directed at direct implementation and long-term R&D developments). The report contains descriptions of the state-of-the-art of the technologies, emission reduction potentials, the costs of emission reduction, and the prospects for further development and (non-technological) constraints. The quantitative information on reduction options was processed in a database, called GENESIS, which can be used to evaluate various reduction technologies in terms of their reduction potential and costs in a reference scenario. Both country and regional data were used for the analysis in this study. Emissions of methane and nitrous oxide contributed in 1990 worldwide to about 20% of total greenhouse gas emissions (excluding fluorinated gases). Assuming simple trends, 2020 emissions are estimated to grow with about 40%. It is technically feasible to reduce these emissions by 30% compared to 2020 projected emissions and stabilise compared to 1990 emissions. Not for all sectors emission reduction measures have been identified. These numbers may be slightly higher when these sectors are also incorporated. A considerable reduction potential exists in developing countries, especially in the long term. A large share of the identified reduction options can be regarded as 'economic potential', i.e. the benefits off-set the costs at least. Nevertheless it is unlikely that this 'economic potential' will be fully explored due to a range of barriers, like juridical, cultural barriers, and lack of awareness. For developing regions, also a lack of capital may prohibit implementation of this potential. For CO, NOx and NMVOCs a less detailed analysis was made. These gases are not part of the Kyoto protocol and have high uncertainties with regard to their global warming potentials.
    • Land Use, Climate and Biogeochemical Cycles: Feedbacks and Options for Emission Reduction

      Hutjes RWA; Dolman AJ; Nabuurs GJ; Schelhaas MJ; Maat HW ter; Kabat P; Moors E; Huygen J; Haarsma R; Ronda R; Schaeffer M; Opsteegh JD; Leemans R; Bouwman L; Busch G; Eickhout B; Kreileman E; Schaeffer M; Strengers B; Vries B de; Verhagen A; Vleeshouwers; Corre WJ; Jongschaap REE; Kruseman G; Ierland E van; Holtslag AAM; Ronda R; Willemsen F; Dorland C; Tol RSJ van; NOP (AlterraKNMIWageningen UniversityPlant Research InternationalIVM, 2002-03-01)
      This report describes a study that has tried to understand the coupling between the main driving forces of land use change and the emission of greenhouse gasses in the context of coupled land surface climate models. Studies related to investigating the main driving forces of land use change in Europe and assessing the budgets of the main greenhouse gasses in Europe were combined with sensitivity studies of land use change and climate at regional and global scale. These were linked to an integrated assessment model and selected economic analysis. Full integration of the parallel studies proved difficult in the timeframe of the project. The individual studies yield insight into the main driving forces of land use in Europe, the size of the biospheric GHG budget, the sensitivity of regional and global climate to land use change, and the global effects of trade in GHG mitigation control.
    • Long-term effects of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem processes

      Oene H van; Ellis WN; Heijmans MMPD; Mauquoy D; Tamis WLM; Vliet AJH; Berendse F; Geel B van; Meijden R van der; Ulenberg SA; NOP (Wageningen UniversityTinea FoundationIBEDAmsterdam UniversityResearch Group PalynologyIBEDAmsterdam UniversityPCNE Leiden UniversityEnvironmental Systems Analysis GroupWageningen UniversityDepartment of EntomologyIBEDAmsterdam UniversityNationaal Herbarium NederlandUniversiteit Leiden, 2002-03-01)
      During the last century human-induced changes in atmospheric deposition, land use and water management greatly affected growing conditions of plant and animal species and dramatic changes in biological diversity in natural ecosystems have been observed. Predicted climate change as a result of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations may further threaten biodiversity. This project aimed at answering: what have been the effects of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, temperature, precipitation and atmospheric nitrogen deposition levels on diversity and distribution patterns of vascular plants and Lepidoptera (moths) species in the past; and what will these effects be in the coming decades? The first subproject described the changes in occurrence and phenology of species that have occurred during the 20th century in the Netherlands and related these changes to possible environmental causes. The second subproject focussed on rain-fed bogs in order to study the relation between climate and species composition over a time period of several centuries. The third subproject modelled the effects of climate change on ecosystem variables that are known to have major impacts on plant diversity such as nitrogen supply, soil acidity, soil moisture and light conditions at soil surface level. The results of the project demonstrate that climate change already has been a strong contributing factor to changes in the occurrence and the phenology of plant species and Lepidoptera species in the Netherlands. The historic analysis of rain-fed peat bogs also demonstrated the impact of climate change on changes in plant species occurrence. The model studies indicate that future climate change may have further consequences for ecosystem processes and species diversity.
    • Monitoring of the soil quality and vegetation using data of remote sensing in the Ukraine : Appendix report of project completion report

      Fraters B; Kovar K; de Jong S; Bartholomeus V; Grekov V; Panasenko V; CMM; mev (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVMUniversity of UtrechtWageningen UniversityCenterderzhrodyuchist, 2012-12-06)
      This report is an appendix report of the project completion report title 'Monitoring of the soil quality and vegetation using data of remote sensing in the Ukraine. Project completion report.' with the RIVM report number 680271001. It contains in total 32 presentations presented by Ukrainian and Dutch experts during three project missions carried out in 2011
    • Monitoring of the soil quality and vegetation using data of remote sensing in the Ukraine : Project completion report

      Fraters B; Kovar K; de Jong S; Bartholomeus V; Grekov V; Panasenko V; CMM; mev (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVMUniversity of UtrechtWageningen UniversityCenterderzhrodyuchist, 2012-12-06)
      Ukraine faces large challenges, as wind and water erosion endanger its highly productive, but vulnerable loess soils. Remote sensing and GIS provide tools to monitor vast areas at relatively low cost. These tools can be used to determine the areas threatened by erosion. In addition, they are suitable to monitor the effectiveness of measures against erosion. This way, necessary soil monitoring is less depending on costly on-ground monitoring stations. These findings are the result of research carried out by the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) in co-operation with various Dutch and Ukrainian experts by order of EVD International. Increasing needs and decreasing budget The incentive of this research was the decreasing budget of the Ukrainian State Centre for Soil Fertility and Product Quality, Centerderzhrodyuchist. This institute is responsible for soil quality monitoring in the Ukraine as well as soil fertility analysis and advises. To assure sufficient food production in the near future, the need for detailed monitoring and information collection is increasing. Safeguarding existing information In addition to proposals for alternative monitoring systems, the project looked into options for digitalising Ukrainian soil data. The huge set of maps, results of lab analysis and field surveys, et cetera, in the possession of the institute, are mainly set down and recorded on paper. It is important to safeguard this irreplaceable information for trend analysis and to have them in a digital form. The infrastructure of the Global Soil Data Mapping project provides a suitable and cost-effective tool for this purpose. Increasing the agricultural area In closing, the project made a start with looking into an affordable technique and whether this technique could be used to determine the 'pollution state' of agricultural soil that were lost for production as a consequence of the accident with the nuclear power plan in Chernobyl. Ukrainian experts assume that the contamination of the soil has been reduced over the last 25 years in such a way that in some areas the land is suitable again for growing agricultural crops safe for human consumption. They will continue this research outside the framework of this project.
    • Representation of the seasonal hydrological cycle in climate and weather prediction models in West Europe

      Dolman AJ; Soet M; Ronda RJ; Hurk BJJM van den; Stricker JNM; Feddes RA; Bruin HAR de; Holtslag AAM; NOP (AlterraWageningen UniversityThe NetherlandsKNMIBilthovenThe Netherlands, 2001-11-19)
      This report is the final report of the project "Representation of the Seasonal Hydrological Cycle in climate and Weather Prediction models in west Europe (NRP project 951246)". The report describes the methodology used to unravel the influences of the land surface on the atmosphere, in particular rainfall and temperature. 1-Dimensional SVAT models are tested against observations and new parameterizations for soil hydrology and canopy atmosphere exchange are developed and implemented in the land surface model of a Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RAMCO). New maps of soil and vegetation properties are developed and used in sensitivity studies. These studies show effects of these new parameters on soil moisture storage and timing of evaporation. Europe-wide these differences are small, but regionally they appear important. Also an unexpectedly close relation between soil moisture, evaporation and rainfall was found in the weather of Europe.