• Biospheric Aspects of the Hydrological Cycle. Highlights of the research synthesis conducted under the umbrella of IGBP -BAHC and WCRP-GEWX/ISLSCP international projects

      Kabat P; Claussen M; Dirmeyer PA; Gash JHC; Bravo de Guenni L; Meybeck M; Pielke AR sr; Vorosmarty CJ; Hall F; Hutjes RWA; Lutklemeier S; Feddes RA; Veraart JA (Wageningen University and Research CentreNetherlandsPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchGermanyCOLAGreenbeltUSACEHWallingfordUKSimon Bolivar UniversityCaracasVenezuelaParis UniversityFranceColorado UniversityUSAUniversity of New HampshireUSANASA GSFCGreenbeltUSA, 2003-02-19)
      Biospheric Aspects of the Hydrological Cycle (BAHC) was established as one of core projects of the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) in 1992. Its main focus is to study the role of the terrestrial biosphere in the hydrological cycle. BAHC is an interdisciplinary project combining and integrating expertise from several disciplines, including eco-physiology, biogeochemistry, hydrology and meteorology.The Global Energy and Water Experiment GEWEX was initiated in 1988 by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) to observe and model the hydrologic cycle and energy fluxes in the atmosphere, and at the land and ocean surface. GEWEX is an integrated program of research, observations, and science activities ultimately leading to the prediction of global and regional climate change. In this report, we present a brief overview of the synthesis research highlights of both international programmes with the primary focus on the biospheric feedbacks in the hydrological cycle and on interactions with the climate system. A full extended research synthesis book, to production of which this NOP project contributed, is currently in press by Springer Verlag (Kabat et al (eds), 2002: Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: A New Perspective of an Interactive System, 650 pp; ISBN 3-540-42400-8)
    • Climate change, a permanent concern. Final report of the second phase of the Dutch National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP II) 1995-2001. Part 1

      Kok MTJ; Heij GJ; Verhagen A; Rovers CA; NOP (Plant Research InternationalWageningen University and Research Centre, 2002-12-09)
      This report, Climate Change, a Permanent Concern, presents the results of research that was conducted in over 90 projects during the second phase of the National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (NRP-II, 1995-2001). The report is intended for policymakers, members of business and societal organisations and interested members of the public.This report addresses the following questions arising from climate policy in the Netherlands: What new understanding is there about the climate system: what has been learned about climate variability, the causes of climate change and the role of human activities (detection and attribution). What are the possible consequences of climate change for the Netherlands in particular, but also for other regions (especially developing countries), and what possibilities are there for adaptation? What development paths are there to bring about reductions in emissions? What recommendations can be made for the Netherlands' national, international and local climate policies?
    • Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment (IPRA) for carcinogens : A first exploration

      Slob W; Bokkers BGH; van der Heijden GWAM; van der Voet H; SIR; vgc (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVMBiometrisWageningen University and Research Centre, 2011-10-10)
      In 2007 the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) and Wageningen University developed the IPRA-method (Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment) to estimate which fraction of the population is affected by non-carcinogenic substances in food. Following research commissioned by the Dutch Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (nVWA) the RIVM shows that the IPRA-method can also be applied to carcinogenic substances. In the IPRA-method the uncertainty in the available data is translated into confidence limits of the results. This gives a more realistic view on the potential health effect. This report describes how the required input data for the IPRAmethod and the results thereof need to be interpreted. As a result of the severe nature of the effect 'cancer' it is desirable that the extra risk of cancer following exposure to substances is very small, for example 1 in a million. Measuring such low cancer incidences would require animal testing at a scale that is too large to be feasible. Therefore, these low risks cannot be measured in animal studies. In practice, measurable cancer incidences from animal experiments are linearly extrapolated to the desired low (non-measurable) cancer incidences. A case study with the carcinogenic mycotoxin aflatoxin B1 illustrates that the uncertainties in risk estimates related to carcinogenic substances are indeed very large. The currently applied linear extrapolation technique results in a single, supposedly conservative, risk estimate, without showing the associated uncertainties. The IPRA-method on the other hand does provide an indication of the uncertainty in the risk estimate. As such it may be a very promising tool for risk managers. The outcome of the method more realistically reflects to what extent quantitative statements on the risk can be made, given the available information. This allows the risk manager to make better informed decisions.