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dc.contributor.authorBrink HW van den
dc.contributor.authorSelten FM
dc.contributor.authorDoortmont DF
dc.contributor.authorOpsteegh JD
dc.contributor.authorKonnen GP
dc.date.accessioned2012-12-12T12:33:19Z
dc.date.available2012-12-12T12:33:19Z
dc.date.issued2001-12-10
dc.identifier410200079
dc.identifier.isbn90 5851 061 1
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10029/255835
dc.description.abstractAbstract niet beschikbaar
dc.description.abstractThe predictability of the European climate is investigated on three aspects. First, for 3 GCM models (i.e. ECHAM4-OPYC3, Hadcm3, CCCma) is determined how an enhanced greenhousegas-concentration influences the temperature, precipitation and pressure. This influence is determined for different spatial scales, i.e. global, regional (Europe) and local (De Bilt). The changes are expressed in a quality number, which compares the greenhouse signal with the capability of the models to describe the mean and the variability of the current climate. The second aspect considered is the way the probability density function (PDF) of the temperature changes due to an enhanced greenhousegas-concentration. The KNMI-model ECBilt shows for the end of this century not only a shifted, but also a narrower PDF. Specifically investigated is the effect on cold winter temperatures. For an event occurring once in 10 years, the shift is 1.2 WC, whereas the narrower PDF causes an extra 1.5 WC, being 2.7 WC in total. The third aspect is the surge level at the Dutch coast. Not only the effect of the greenhouse climate is investigated, but also is determined if the observed record can be used for estimating the surge level belonging to the (socially relevant) return period of 10.000 year. The research shows that the available records of 100 year deficit considerably. For the greenhouse climate, ECBilt indicates the excitation of so-called 'super-storms': storms of a extreme rareness, with an other intensity-frequency relation than the extreme storms we know from the current climate. For return periods longer than several centuries, the statistics of the extremes for wind and surge in the ECBilt greenhouse experiment are determined by these super-storms.
dc.description.sponsorshipSG-NOP
dc.format.extent100 p
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherKNMI
dc.publisherDe Bilt
dc.relation.ispartofGlobal Change NOP-NRP report 410200079
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/410200079.html
dc.subject04nl
dc.subjectklimaatveranderingnl
dc.subjectweernl
dc.subjectlange termijnnl
dc.subjectstormnl
dc.subjectclimatic changesen
dc.subjectweatheren
dc.subjectlong termen
dc.subjectstormen
dc.titleClimate Projections for Europe: GCM intercomparisons and anlaysis of the predictability in practical and theoretical senseen
dc.title.alternativeKlimaatprojecties voor Europa: modelvergelijkingen en een analyse van de voorspelbaarheidnl
dc.typeReport
dc.contributor.departmentNOP
dc.date.updated2012-12-12T12:33:19Z
html.description.abstractAbstract niet beschikbaar
html.description.abstractThe predictability of the European climate is investigated on three aspects. First, for 3 GCM models (i.e. ECHAM4-OPYC3, Hadcm3, CCCma) is determined how an enhanced greenhousegas-concentration influences the temperature, precipitation and pressure. This influence is determined for different spatial scales, i.e. global, regional (Europe) and local (De Bilt). The changes are expressed in a quality number, which compares the greenhouse signal with the capability of the models to describe the mean and the variability of the current climate. The second aspect considered is the way the probability density function (PDF) of the temperature changes due to an enhanced greenhousegas-concentration. The KNMI-model ECBilt shows for the end of this century not only a shifted, but also a narrower PDF. Specifically investigated is the effect on cold winter temperatures. For an event occurring once in 10 years, the shift is 1.2 WC, whereas the narrower PDF causes an extra 1.5 WC, being 2.7 WC in total. The third aspect is the surge level at the Dutch coast. Not only the effect of the greenhouse climate is investigated, but also is determined if the observed record can be used for estimating the surge level belonging to the (socially relevant) return period of 10.000 year. The research shows that the available records of 100 year deficit considerably. For the greenhouse climate, ECBilt indicates the excitation of so-called 'super-storms': storms of a extreme rareness, with an other intensity-frequency relation than the extreme storms we know from the current climate. For return periods longer than several centuries, the statistics of the extremes for wind and surge in the ECBilt greenhouse experiment are determined by these super-storms.


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