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    Onderbouwing emissieprognose van de niet-CO2-broeikasgassen in de MV5. Welk nieuw beleid, inzichten en aannames zitten erin en hoe groot zijn de onzekerheden?

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    Authors
    Folkert RJM
    Peek CJ
    Type
    Report
    Language
    nl
    
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    Title
    Onderbouwing emissieprognose van de niet-CO2-broeikasgassen in de MV5. Welk nieuw beleid, inzichten en aannames zitten erin en hoe groot zijn de onzekerheden?
    Translated Title
    Insights emission prognoses for the non-CO2-greenhouse gases in the National Environmental Outlook 5
    Publiekssamenvatting
    Dit achtergronddocument geeft inzicht in de belangrijkste processen, volume-ontwikkelingen, beleid, technologie en aannames die ten grondslag liggen aan de prognose van de niet-CO2-broeikasgassen in de Nationale Milieuverkenning 5. De belangrijkste ontwikkelingen en trends bij de emissies van methaan, lachgas en de F-gassen (HFKs, PFKs, SF6) worden besproken. Met behulp van expertschattingen over onzekerheden in emissiefactoren wordt een indicatie gegeven van de onzekerheid waarmee de berekening van volume (bv. aantal koeien) naar emissie omgeven is. Het gebruik van twee verschillende omgevingsscenario's Global Competion (GC) en European Coordination (EC) is een indicatie voor de onzekerheid in volume ten gevolge van verschillende sociaal-economische ontwikkelingen. De onzekerheid lijkt hoofdzakelijk te worden bepaald door onzekerheden in emissiefactoren en minder door onzekerheden over toekomstige sociaal-economische ontwikkelingen.<br>
    This background document provides insight into the main processes, developments in volume, and the policy, technology and assumptions on which the emission prognoses for the non-CO2-greenhouse gases in the National Environmental Outlook 5 are based. The main developments in the emission trends for methane, nitrous oxide and fluorine gases (HFCs, PFCs and SF6) are discussed here. An indication of the uncertainty surrounding the emission calculation for volume (i.e. number of cows) is given with the help of expert judgement on uncertainties in emission factors. The use of two different scenarios, Global Competion (GC) and European Coordination (EC), indicate the uncertainty in different socio-economic developments - an uncertainty which seems to be mainly caused by the uncertainties in emission factors and to a lesser extent by uncertainties in future socio-economic developments.<br>
    Publisher
    Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVM
    Sponsors
    DGM
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