Globalisation, International Transport and the Global Environment (GITAGE)
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TitleGlobalisation, International Transport and the Global Environment (GITAGE)
Translated TitleGlobalisering, Internationaal Transport en het mondiale milieu (GITAGE)
PubliekssamenvattingAbstract niet beschikbaar
The project 'Globalisation, International Transport and the Global Environment' (GITAGE) aims to map out the transport implications of current world-wide globalisation trends, with a particular view to the consequences of increased transport (of both passengers and goods) for global environmental quality as reflected in Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) (notably, but not exclusively CO2). In this study, environmental and climate consequences of globalisation are assessed in a quantitative sense for various modes of transport - in relation to international trade and person mobility - in a medium- to long-term perspective by using results and knowledge from the CPB World Scan Model and the IVM information base on global emissions. Four globalisation scenarios (quantified with WorldScan) formed the basis for various transport scenarios (on different scale levels) of which the consequences in terms of emissions were shown. Besides, the importance and possibilities of innovations in transport were clarified as this is of major importance in mapping out the future of transport. Also attention was paid to the possible impact of policy intervention. Under high economic growth and little political concern about climate change, CO2 emissions from transport might double to quadruple, depending on the region, in the period 1995-2020. It appears that European and Dutch emission levels can only be limited to around 1995 levels if, simultaneously, economic growth is limited, if under a trend towards sustainability transport intensities of economies decline and if all technical opportunities for reduction of CO2 emissions are exploited. However, since transport is mainly a derived demand, the conclusion is that the transportation sector in itself has only a limited potential to offer a significant contribution towards a reduction in CO2 emissions. Transportation technology and logistics are mainly driven by competitive behaviour, so that an autonomous role of the transport sector in shaping a world characterised by sustainable development is rather limited. This does not only hold at a global level, but also at a national or regional level. In the context of the Dutch situation with its emphasis on mainport strategies, it is not evident that an abandonment of such logistic concepts in transportation policy would have a significant influence on global CO2 emissions.