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    Onzekerheid in Energiebesparingscijfers

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    Authors
    Gijsen A
    Boonekamp PGM
    Series/Report no.
    RIVM rapport 773001030
    Type
    Report
    Language
    nl
    
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    Title
    Onzekerheid in Energiebesparingscijfers
    Translated Title
    Uncertainties in Realised Energy Savings
    Publiekssamenvatting
    Dit onderzoek toont aan dat, ook met inachtneming van de marges, met grote zekerheid gesteld kan worden dat het besparingsdoel van 1,3% per jaar, zoals geformuleerd in het Nationaal Milieubeleidsplan 4, nog niet is bereikt. Met behulp van de Leidraad voor onzekerheden van het RIVM en een statistische analyse zijn de marges bepaald van de verschillende besparingscijfers die zijn berekend in het rapport 'Gerealiseerde energiebesparing 1995-2002'. De marge van de 1,0 % nationale besparing voor de periode 1995-2002 is berekend op 0,3%-punt. Dat betekent dat met de gekozen methodiek en invoerparameters de kans dat het Nationale besparings-effect tussen de -0,7 en -1,3% ligt, 95% is. Ook voor de verschillende sectoren zijn marges bepaald. De grootste marge komt voor rekening van de sector Landbouw (1,5%-punt), de kleinste voor rekening van de sector Industrie (0,4%-punt).

    Even though margins of energy savings have been taken into account, it is not very likely that the Dutch national energy savings target of 1.3%, as stated in the Dutch National Environmental Programme 4, can still be realised. This is the conclusion of a study documented in a recent report 'GEREALISEERDE ENERGIEBESPARING 1995-2002' ('Energy savings realised, 1995-2002'). The margins for energy savings realised in the 1995-2002 period were calculated with the assistance of the RIVM/MNP 'Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment' and a statistical analysis. The margin of the 1.0%-national energy savings for the 1995-2002 period was determined on a 0.3%-point basis. On the basis of the chosen methodology and input parameters, the chance that national energy savings realised would be found between 0.7% and 1.3% is 95%. Calculations for the different sectors yielded the largest margin (1.5% points) in the agricultural sector and the smallest (0.4% point) in the industrial sector.
    Publisher
    Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVM
    Energie Centrum Nederland (ECN)
    Sponsors
    RIVM
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10029/256917
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    RIVM official reports

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