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    The application of the GWP concept in climate policy

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    Authors
    Janssen LHJM
    Fransen W
    Type
    Report
    Language
    en
    
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    Title
    The application of the GWP concept in climate policy
    Translated Title
    De toepassing van het GWP concept in klimaatbeleid
    Publiekssamenvatting
    Global Warming Potentials (GWP's) zijn dimensieloze getallen waarmee de relatieve bijdrage van emissies van lang-levende broeikasgassen aan de versterking van het broeikaseffect kan worden beoordeeld. Zowel de wetenschappelijke aspecten van het Global Warming Potential concept (GWP) als het gebruik van dit concept in klimaatbeleid worden geanalyseerd en becommentarieerd. Dit concept kan worden gebruikt door beleidsmakers om de effectiviteit van klimaatbeleid te beoordelen en als een hulpmiddel om verschillende beleidsopties te evalueren. Er wordt gesteld dat verschillende factoren die de GWP van een gas beinvloeden: verschillen in berekeningsmethoden, onzekerheden in spectrale gegevens, de keuze van een specifieke tijdshorizon en een range van GWP-waarden die bepaald wordt door de gebruikte emissiescenarios, de ontwikkeling van klimaatbeleid niet hoeven te verhinderen vanwege de overheersende bijdrage van CO2 aan de versterking van het broeikaseffect. Resultaten van berekeningen voor een aantal scenarios laten zien dat de relatieve bijdrage van CO2 aan de versterking van het broeikaseffect (die nu meer dan 60% is) voor die scenario's gedurende de volgende eeuw op zijn minst op dat niveau blijft maar in de meeste gevallen stijgt. Dit vergemakkelijkt het besluitvormingsproces in klimaatbeleid door prioriteit te geven aan CO2 als belangrijkste broeikasgas.
    Both the scientific aspects of the Global Warming Potential concept (GWP) and its use in climate policy are analysed and discussed in this document. GWPs are indexed numbers to allow assessment of the relative contribution of emissions of long-living greenhouse gases to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect. The concept can therefore be used by policy-makers to assess the effectiveness of climate policy and to evaluate different policy options in the process of decision-making. The point to be made here is that differences in calculation methods, uncertainties in the spectral data, the choice of a particular time-horizon and the range of GWP values which depend on the emission scenario (all influencing the GWP of a specific gas) should not seriously hamper the development of climate policy because of the dominant contribution of CO2 to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect. The relative contribution of CO2 in the total radiative forcing, calculated for a time horizon of 100 years, is currently more than 60%, also taking the contribution of CFCs, CH4 and N2O into account. This contribution of CO2 is in the least expected to remain so, however, will likely increase during the next century, a conclusion that may facilitate the decision-making in climate change policy giving priority to CO2 as the most important greenhouse gas.
    Sponsors
    DGM/LE
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10029/257023
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