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    Milieu-ontwikkelingen op de middellange termijn: klimaatverandering, verzuring, vermesting en verwijdering

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    Authors
    Gerwen OJ van
    Annema JA
    Egmond PM van
    Harmelink MGM
    Nagelhout D
    Type
    Report
    Language
    nl
    
    Metadata
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    Title
    Milieu-ontwikkelingen op de middellange termijn: klimaatverandering, verzuring, vermesting en verwijdering
    Translated Title
    Environmental development for the medium term: climate change, acidification, eutrophication and waste disposal
    Publiekssamenvatting
    In november 1997 heeft het Centraal Planbureau twee nieuwe scenario's voor de middellange termijn gepubliceerd. Voor het eerst heeft het RIVM - conform de toezegging van de ministers van EZ en VROM aan de Tweede Kamer - de ontwikkeling van een aantal milieu-indicatoren bij deze MLT-scenario's berekend. Het betreft de milieuthema's klimaatverandering, verzuring, vermesting en verwijdering. Bij verzuring en vermesting is sprake van afnemende belasting van het milieu, terwijl de economie blijft groeien. De productie van afval neemt echter toe; wel blijft de groei hier ver achter bij de groei van het BBP. Door recycling en nuttige toepassing neemt de hoeveelheid te storten, te verbranden of te lozen afval af. De emissie van broeikasgassen en met name van CO2 zal ook in de toekomst blijven toenemen. Voor de budgettaire beleidsvoorbereiding biedt het behoedzame scenario een nuttig kader. Vanuit milieu-oogpunt zou het beter zijn om het gunstige scenario (met een hogere economische groei) als basis te kiezen.
    Every two years the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) brings out an economic outlook for the medium term (MT scenarios), i.e. the next four years. For the 1997 MT publication the RIVM has quantified the corresponding environmental effects of these economic developments, or more specifically the effects for the environmental themes of global change, acidification, eutrophication and waste disposal. The methodological and quantitative underpinning of the environmental calculations are presented in this report, which can be considered as the environmental background document for the MT scenarios. The following main conclusions were drawn: (1) although economic growth will continue, emissions of acidifying and eutrophying substances will decrease in the coming years, while the production of waste will increase; due to more recycling, the total amount of waste to be incinerated, to be disposed of in landfills or to be discharged into the water will decrease; (2) the emissions of CO2 will continue to grow with the economy, although at a slower pace, while policy aims at a reduction of 3% in 2000 compared to 1990; (3) strong efforts will be necessary to realise the current policy objectives for the themes of acidification, eutrophication and CO2; (4) for every extra percent of economic growth in the future, there will be roughly an increase in environmental pressure of 0.5% to 1%.
    Sponsors
    DGM-SP
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10029/257451
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