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    Comparison of global passenger transport models and available literature

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    Authors
    Breugem RMH
    Vuuren DP van
    Wee B van
    Type
    Onderzoeksrapport
    Language
    en
    
    Metadata
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    Title
    Comparison of global passenger transport models and available literature
    Translated Title
    Literatuurstudie naar modellen en onderzoeken met betrekking tot mondiaal personenvervoer
    Publiekssamenvatting
    In de afgelopen jaren is wereldwijd het energieverbruik in de transport sector zeer sterk gegroeid. Het goed modelleren van transport in "integrated assessment" modellen is daarom steeds belangrijker. In deze studie wordt een overzicht gegeven van de kennis in literatuur over de determinanten van de vraag naar energie van transport in het algemeen en van personenvervoer in het bijzonder. Bovendien is een overzicht gemaakt van enkele bestaande modellen die mondiaal transport beschrijven. Op basis van dit overzicht worden suggesties gedaan hoe de modellering van transport in TIMER eventueel kan worden verbeterd. De belangrijkste determinanten (met geoperationaliseerde variabelen) zijn economische ontwikkeling (bruto nationaal produkt), ruimtelijke indeling (urbane bevolkingsdichtheid), prijzen (brandstofprijzen, ticket prijzen), demografische factoren (bevolkingsomvang, leeftijd, geslacht) en technologische ontwikkeling (modale energie intensiteiten). In de beschikbare literatuur kon van vier transportmodellen een goede beschrijving gevonden worden. Op basis van de literatuurstudie en persoonlijke communicatie met Schafer lijkt de aanpak van Schafer and Victor in combinatie met een model om het energiegebruik van vrachtvervoer te beschrijven een goede methode voor de beschrijving van transport energiegebruik in TIMER.
    Over the last decade transport has been strongest growing sector in terms of worldwide energy demand. As a result, proper modelling of transport has become more important in models describing global climate change. RIVM has developed the energy model TIMER as part of the global integrated assessment model, IMAGE (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to study long-term energy scenarios, related environmental problems and available options for mitigation (up to 2100). In the research project described, the aim was to find a modelling approach and identify determinants of transport energy demand to improve the projections of TIMER, focusing on passenger transport. Global transport models were compared by means of a literature study. The literature that could be reviewed for this project focused mainly on passenger transport in OECD countries. In addition, four global transport models were studied - i.e. two models from the World Energy Council, one from the International Energy Agency, and a model described by Schafer and Victor. On the basis of this review, it became clear that the best improvements could be achieved in transport modelling in the context of TIMER by adopting an updated version of the transport model by Schafer and Victor. Such a model would take into account the determinants, technology, spatial organisation (population density), prices and possible demographic factors other than population size (e.g. age).
    Sponsors
    RIVM
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10029/258031
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    RIVM official reports

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