Gevoeligheidsanalyse via metamodellen en proefopzetten, toegepast op het broeikassimulatiemodel image

Abstract

To integrate most relevant aspects of the global problem of climate change RIVM has developed a computer simulation model: IMAGE (Integrated Model for the Assessment of the Greenhouse Effect). A sensitivity analysis has been performed on this model, by having tried to find a relationship between input- and output vaiables. In order to find such a relationship, a metamodel is specified. A metamodel is a model itself of the simulation model, a regression model. This regression model supposes a linear relation between in- and output. By applying linear regression with the least squares method, the regression coefficients of the metamodel can be determined. With help of experimental designs, experiments have been carried out as effective and efficient as possible. In this way several modules of IMAGE have been analysed: the module concerning dike raising and the costs of dike raising, and the carbon cycle module. For these modules adequate metamodels have been developed.