Scenarios for Western Europe on long term abatement of CO2 emissions

Abstract

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An energy model for Western Europe has been constructed on the basis of the MARKAL model to analyse future development of CO2 emissions from Western Europe and the possibilities to limit these emissions with technological measures. This report describes two baseline scenarios for Western Europe for the period 1990 to 2050, which have clear differences in economic production orientation and assumptions with respect to criteria for making energy investment decisions. The differences in assumptions result in distinctly different baseline CO2 emissions, ranging from almost stable CO2 emissions to a continuous growth emissions. Several cases with a range of CO2 emission taxes were also calculated to identify cost-effective strategies for CO2 emission reduction and to assess the potential contribution of energy technologies and sectors to CO2 reduction. Energy efficiency improvements are shown to have the highest potential to contribute to CO2 emission reduction. Fossil fuel switching and nuclear energy are relatively cost-effective ways to reduce CO2 emissions. The contribution of renewables to CO2 reduction is relatively small with low CO2 taxes but is substantial with high CO2 tax levels.