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    Ecologische effectberekening voor de 2e Nationale Natuurverkenning: terrestrische systemen

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    Authors
    Hoek DCJ van der
    Hoffmans WH
    Hinsberg A van
    Esbroek M van
    Alkemade JRM
    Type
    Report
    Language
    nl
    
    Metadata
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    Title
    Ecologische effectberekening voor de 2e Nationale Natuurverkenning: terrestrische systemen
    Translated Title
    Ecological effect calculations for the national Nature Outlook 2: terrestrial ecosystems
    Publiekssamenvatting
    In de 2e Nationale Natuurverkenning gaat het Milieu- en NatuurPlanbureau (MNP) na hoe trends in maatschappelijke ontwikkelingen natuur en landschap rond 2030 kunnen gaan beinvloeden. De achterliggende analyse van vier contrasterende integrale omgevingsscenario's kwantificeert de ecologische effecten van het totale samenspel van trends. Dit rapport beschrijft de methode van de ecologische effectberekening voor de terrestrische natuur oftewel natuur op het land, waarin de stappen 1) van scenariobeschrijving tot modelinvoer 2) van modelinvoer tot modeluitvoer 3) van modeluitvoer tot graadmeter, aan bod komen. Daarnaast behandelt het rapport de resultaten met enkele illustrerende analyses en enige discussiepunten bij de methode en resultaten. De terrestrische natuurkwaliteit als geheel herstelt zich in de komende dertig jaar met gemiddeld circa 10 a 15% van de waarde van optimaal ontwikkelde natuur. De kwaliteitsverbetering verschilt echter sterk per natuurtype (tot maximaal 60%) en tussen soortgroepen. De natuurkwaliteit op het land neemt duidelijk toe. De natuurkwaliteit van het agrarisch deel verandert daarentegen niet.
    In the Dutch national Nature Outlook 2 the Environmental Assessment Office analyses effects of social trends on biodiversity. The possible future changes in biodiversity have been quantified in four integrated scenarios. This report describes how changes in terrestrial ecosystems were calculated with ecological models. It includes the descriptions of: 1) the definition of model input from the scenarios, 2) the ecological modelling itself and, 3) the visualisation of the calculated biodiversity changes in the Natural Capital Index. In each of the four scenarios, environmental quality improves and more space becomes available for nature areas. The improvement of environmental quality causes an increase in the quality of nature. Flora in particular benefits from lowering the deposition of acid and nitrogen components and improving the hydrology in natural areas. Integrated nature and environmental policy measures can enable the quality of nature to restore in the coming 30 years with an average of 10-15% to approximately 60% of the value of an optimally developed ecosystem. Not all types of ecosystem and group of species profit in a similar way. The increase in biodiversity is large in natural areas, whereas in urban areas the quality of nature does not improve.
    Sponsors
    Directie Milieu- en Natuuurplanbureau
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10029/258436
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