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    Bedrijfsverplaatsingen naar het spoor en de effecten op verkeer en vervoer

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    Authors
    Wee GP van
    Type
    Report
    Language
    nl
    
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    Title
    Bedrijfsverplaatsingen naar het spoor en de effecten op verkeer en vervoer
    Translated Title
    Office relocations and mobility effects
    Publiekssamenvatting
    Deze scenariostudie heeft tot doel vast te stellen in welke mate de verplaatsing van werkgelegenheid van slecht naar beter per openbaar vervoer bereikbare locaties kan bijdragen aan de beperking van (de milieuschade door) de personenmobiliteit. Er is een ruimtelijk scenario opgesteld, waarin is verondersteld dat de helft van de werkgelegenheid wordt verplaatst van slecht naar goed per openbaar vervoer bereikbare locaties. Als maximale verplaatsingsafstand is 20 km hemelsbreed verondersteld. Teneinde expliciet met reacties van werkenden op bedrijfsverplaatsingen rekening te houden (wel/niet verhuizen ; wel/niet van werkgever veranderen), zijn modellen ontwikkeld voor deze reacties. Deze modellen zijn toegepast in de scenariostudie. De belangrijkste conclusies zijn: (1) De berekende effecten op het woon-werkverkeer hangen sterk af van de vraag of expliciet rekening is gehouden met de reacties van werkenden op bedrijfsverplaatsingen. Het autogebruik (uitgedrukt in kilometers) van de werkenden die geconfronteerd worden met bedrijfsverplaatsingen, neemt met circa 10% af indien expliciet rekening wordt gehouden met genoemde reacties, en met circa 30% indien van de lange termijn evenwichtssituatie wordt uitgegaan. (2) Het additionele effect van het verplaatsen van werkgelegenheid van slecht naar goed per openbaar vervoer bereikbare locaties is lager als de snelheid van het autosysteem 10% lager is en als de kosten van mobiliteit dubbel zo hoog zijn. (3) Het additionele effect van het genoemde ruimtelijke scenario is min of meer onafhankelijk van een eventuele wijziging in de voorkeur van werkenden van auto naar openbaar vervoer.
    This report describes a scenario study into the mobility effects of office relocations. A land-use scenario was developed, assuming that half the non-agricultural and non-retail employment at locations with poor access to public transport are relocated to sites with good public transport accessibility. Based on the results of empirical research, models have been developed describing how employees react to the relocation of their offices (change / no change in home or job location). These models were combined with the Dutch National Model System. Model simulations show that if half the non-agricultural and non-retail employment at locations with poor access to public transport are relocated to sites with good public transport accessibility, calculated use of cars for driving from home to work, assuming the long-term equilibrium, will be reduced by 4% in 2015. However, If (delayed) reactions of employees to relocations are explicitly incorporated, the (medium-term) reduction is only 1.3% Reductions in the distance driven from home to work of employees confronted with relocations vary from 31% (long-term equilibrium) to 10% (taking explicit account of reactions to relocations). Calculated effects of relocations on the mobility of employees are highly dependent on whether or not reactions of employees are explicitly taken into account. Contrary to the expectations, if mobility costs are doubled or if average speeds of car trips are reduced by 10%, the effects of the assumed employment relocations are lower than without these changes. The most important reason for these lower effects is the difference in increase in commuting distances due to the employment relocations. Before the employment relocations the firms are located more or less in the centre of their workers. After the employment relocations the employment is sited more excentric, resulting in an increase in average commuting distances. The shorter the commuting distances, the stronger the (relative) increase in commuting distances. Because higher costs and lower speeds result in lower commuting distances, the increase due to the employment relocations is higher. Changes in behaviour (taste variations) (with as a result a shift from car driver to public transport) do not influence the effects of the assumed employment relocations.
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    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10029/258838
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