Ozone depletion and skin cancer incidence: an integrated modelling approach

Abstract

A decrease in stratospheric ozone, probably caused by chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions, has been observed over large parts of the globe. The incidence of skin cancer is expected to increase due to ozone depletion. An integrated source-risk model is developed and applied to evaluate the increased skin cancer incidence related to various CFC emission scenarios. The source-risk model is an independent submodule within the framework of IMAGE, an integrated source-effect-model for climate change and ozone depletion. The model provides estimates for tropospheric concentrations of CFC's, chlorine levels in the stratosphere, ozone depletion, UV irradiance and effects on skin cancer incidence and death rates. The model results show that nu full recovery of the stratospheric chemical balance is expected, even if all countries in the world were to comply to the London Amendments of the Montreal Protocol. Excess death and incidence rates in the Netherlands refering to the additional skin cancer cases caused by ozone depletion are made and compared with preliminary estimated for the USA. The model can be used to evaluate the effects of various new policy options, including the role of CFC alternatives. Furthermore, the model can also be applied for estimating other effects of UV exposure if sufficient information on the exposure-effect relationships becomes available.<br>