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    Evaluatie van de met CSOIL berekende blootstelling, middels een op Monte Carlo-technieken gebaseerde gevoeligheids- en onzekerheidsanalyse

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    Authors
    Vissenberg HA
    Swartjes FA
    Type
    Report
    Language
    nl
    
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    Title
    Evaluatie van de met CSOIL berekende blootstelling, middels een op Monte Carlo-technieken gebaseerde gevoeligheids- en onzekerheidsanalyse
    Translated Title
    Evaluation of the CSOIL-model with sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, based on Monte Carlo sampling techniques
    Publiekssamenvatting
    Om inzicht te verkrijgen in de betrouwbaarheid van de met het CSOIL-model berekende blootstelling is, middels een op Monte Carlo-technieken gebaseerde gevoeligheids- en onzekerheidsanalyse met behulp van het software pakket UNCSAM, de spreiding in de potentiele blootstelling in beeld gebracht. Dit betreft de spreiding die veroorzaakt wordt door onzekerheid in de input-parameters ten gevolge van zowel ruimtelijke spreiding als gebrek aan informatie. Tevens wordt, op basis van de kansverdeling van de berekende potentiele blootstelling, de kans van voorkomen aangegeven van de deterministisch (op puntschatting gebaseerde) berekende potentiele blootstelling, zoals ten grondslag ligt aan de interventiewaarden. Tenslotte is onderzocht door welke input-parameters de spreiding in de blootstelling wordt bepaald, voor zowel de potentiele als de actuele blootstelling. De studie is uitgevoerd voor een vijftal contaminanten met uiteenlopende eigenschappen. Bovendien is de blootstelling via de separate blootstellingroutes geevalueerd. Op grond van grote onzekerheden in de berekening van gehaltes in de contact-media, met name binnenlucht-concentratie en gewasgehalte, dient voor sommige contaminanten meting in deze contact-media te worden overwogen. Aanbevolen wordt in de toekomst probabilistisch onderbouwde normen (zoals interventiewaarden) en/of andere milieu-kwaliteitsdoelstellingen (zoals saneringseinddoel) af te leiden. Hiertoe zal, behalve de in deze studie afgeleide probabilistische weergegeven blootstelling, tevens het Maximaal Toelaatbare Risico (MTR) voor blootstelling en de ecotoxicologische ernstige-bodemverontreinigingsconcentratie (ECOTOX EBVC) in probabilistische vorm moeten worden vertaald.<br>
    The distribution of calculated potential exposure due to soil contamination is quantified to gain insight into the reliability of the human exposure calculated with the CSOIL model. The study is focused on the distribution of exposure due to uncertainty in the input parameters caused by spatial variability and lack of information. A Monte Carlo-based sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is performed for this purpose using the UNCSAM computer package. Also investigated is the chance of occurrence of the deterministically calculated potential exposure underlying the intervention values, using the probability density function of the calculated potential exposure. Finally, the most important input parameters for the exposure distribution are derived for both potential and actual exposure. The study is focused on five contaminants, differing widely in their contaminant characteristics. The exposure via separate exposure routes is also evaluated so as to indicate the distribution of the exposure and contribution of the input parameters to exposure to other contaminants. To achieve this, other contaminants have to be characterised according to the contribution of these separate exposure routes to the total exposure. Because of large uncertainties in the calculation of the contents in the contact media (indoor air, plant content), for some contaminants one should consider performing measurements in these contact media. On the basis of probalistically derived exposure, Maximal Permissable Risk (MPR) for intake and ecotoxicological serious soil-contamination concentration (ECOTOX EBVC), it is recommended in the future to consider deriving probalistically based guidelines (e.g. intervention values) or other environmental quality objectives (e.g. final contaminant level after remediation).<br>
    Description
    Bijlagen onder rapportnummer/Annex see 715810018-B&lt;br&gt;
    Publisher
    Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVM
    Sponsors
    DGM/BO
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10029/259500
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