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    Insights for the third Global Environment Outlook from related global scenario anlayses. Working paper for GEO-3

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    Authors
    Bakkes JA
    Goldewijk CGM
    Meijer JR
    Rothman DS
    Vries HJM de
    Woerden JW van
    Type
    Onderzoeksrapport
    Language
    en
    
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    Title
    Insights for the third Global Environment Outlook from related global scenario anlayses. Working paper for GEO-3
    Translated Title
    Inzichten voor de derde Wereldmilieuverkenning uit verwante mondiale scenariostudies. Werkdocument voor GEO-3
    Publiekssamenvatting
    Dit rapport maakt deel uit van de voorbereiding van de derde Global Environment Outlook van UNEP. Het illustreert schaal en soort van de milieu-effecten die GEO in beeld zou moeten brengen. De efecten worden gekwantificeerd door materiaal dat is ontleend aan recente studies over men of meer vergelijkbare scenarios. Omdat het de bedoeling is dat GEO-3 de milieu-onderbouwing levert voor de Rio+10 milieutop in 2002 wordt in dit werkdocument de suggestie gedaan om de analyse voor GEO-3 te richten op de mogleijkheden voor synergie tussen milieubeleid en ontwikkelingsbeleid. Verder worden drie samenvattende indicatoren voorgesteld. De kwantificering in dit werkdocument heeft betrekking op onderwerpen als demografische transitie en afhankelijkheidratio in de bevolking; watertekorten; veranderingen in gewasopbrengst; de kans op landdegradatie; en de achteruitgang van biodiversiteit. Speciale aandacht is besteed aan regionale verschillen en aan informatie die van belang is voor het schatten van veranderingen in kwetsbaarheid.
    This report relates to the ongoing development of scenarios for the third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) of UNEP. It illustrates the scale and type of environmental impacts that GEO-3 needs to consider. It does so by quantifying impacts using existing, recent studies whose scenarios come closest to the current tentative global storylines for GEO-3. With a view to GEO-3;s envisaged role as input for the Rio+10 Earth Summit in 2002, this report suggests a focus for the GEO-3 scenario analysis on the potential for co-benefits between development and environment policies. Moreover, a set of three summary indicators is proposed, to reflect the impact of the scenarios on three domains of sustainable development. The quantification in the report addresses issues such as: the demographic transition and changing dependency ratios of populations; water shortages; changes in the yield of crops; risk of land degradation; and the loss of terrestrial biodiversity. Special attention is given to regional differentiation and no material that will help to estimate how vulnerability of humans and exosystems changes in the scenarios.
    Publisher
    United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
    Sponsors
    DGM UNEP
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10029/259896
    Collections
    RIVM official reports

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