Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2: mechanisms and modelling

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Within the framework of a research program directed towards the model-based assessment of the enhanced greenhouse effect this report gives an overview of the role of the oceans in the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 (i.e. CO2 released from industrial sources and changing landuse). Background information on chemical, physical and biological mechanisms is summarized. The role of the oceans in the CO2 cycle during the geological past provides an important clue to understanding their current role in the perturbated CO2 cycle. Based on these sources of information a model for the oceanic carbon cycle is formulated which forms part of the IMAGE system of models to assess the greenhouse effect. The model is used for a sensitivity study of the effect of global change on oceanic carbon uptake during the next century. The main conclusion of this study is that the oceanic CO2 uptake is (on the time-scale of interest) relatively insensitive to possible changes in external conditions. This implies that management possibilities are virtually absent: CO2 abatement policies should focus on terrestrial aspects (emissions and landuse) only. In terms of research priorities the implication of this study is that it may be possible to predict future oceanic CO2 uptake within reasonable uncertainty limits, even though we are not able to predict all aspects of ocean chemistry, biology and physics in detail.