Prevalentie-analyse van een aantal chronische ziekten tussen 1990 en 2005

Abstract

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With the ageing of the population, diseases mainly occurring amongst elderly people will cause a shift of morbidity in the Dutch society. In this analysis the prevalence of chronic diseases was subject of study. On the basis of registration data from general practitioners the prevalence of the two most important chronic diseases per tractus were compared to each other and extrapolations to the year 2005 were made. Using a static model, in which the number of patients per number of inhabitants was held constant, the expected prevalence of the diseases in 2005 was calculated. For diseases with an equal increase of the number of patients between 1990 and 2005 the distribution of the number of patients per age-category was compared. Diseases showing the same prevalence profile were clustered. While the expected growth of the Dutch population between 1990 and 2005 is 8.5%, the expected increase of the prevalence of most of the diseases with a comparable prevalence profile the highest percentages were in the age category of 65-79 year, sometimes followed by the age category of 45-64 year or the category of 80+ years. Diseases showing an increase in prevalence less than 20% are diseases that relatively affect a younger population.