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    Evaluatie van de berekeningen van de atmosferische ammoniak-concentraties in Nederland: aanpassing van modelparameters en emissies op basis van meetgegevens

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    Authors
    Heuberger PSC
    Aben JMM
    Dekkers ALM
    Type
    Report
    Language
    nl
    
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    Title
    Evaluatie van de berekeningen van de atmosferische ammoniak-concentraties in Nederland: aanpassing van modelparameters en emissies op basis van meetgegevens
    Translated Title
    Evaluation of the calculations of atmospheric ammonia concentrations in the Netherlands: adjustment of model parameters and emissions on the basis of measured concentrations
    Publiekssamenvatting
    Jaargemiddelde ammoniak-concentraties en deposities in Nederland worden berekend met het atmosferisch transport model OPS. Sinds medio 1992 worden tevens op acht meetstations verspreid over het land continu ammoniak-concentraties gemeten en als uurgemiddelden opgeslagen. Met behulp van optimalisatie methoden wordt voor 1993 de fit tussen gemeten en berekende concentraties verbeterd, door het aanpassen van modelparameters en ammoniak-emissies. Hiertoe is Nederland in 5 regio's verdeeld, waaraan een onderscheid in bronsterkte ten grondslag ligt. Het emissieveld wordt bij deze modelcalibratie aangepast door de emissies in deze regio's met een factor te verhogen of te verlagen. De modelvoorspellingen worden in sterke mate verbeterd door de resulterende aanpassingen van emissies en modelparameters. In de uitgangssituatie leidden de modelberekeningen tot NH3-concentraties die gemiddeld 54% lager uitvielen dan de gemeten concentraties. Na calibratie is dit verschil teruggebracht tot 3%. De totale Nederlandse ammoniak-emissie zou daartoe met 8% verhoogd dienen te worden, met variaties van -20% tot +56% per gekozen emissie-regio. Na afronding van de berekeningen voor deze studie zijn in het kader van de Milieu-Balans '95 berekeningen voor 1993 uitgevoerd waarvoor zowel emissies als het model zijn aangepast. Deze nieuwe emissies bevestigen het resultaat van dit onderzoek in zoverre dat de landelijk gemiddelde emissie is verhoogd met 16% t.o.v. de oorspronkelijke schatting. Desondanks blijft er een verschil van 27% tussen gemeten en berekende concentraties. Ter beoordeling van de ruimtelijke representativiteit van de gemeten concentraties voor de omgeving van het meetstation worden op gezette tijden extra metingen verricht in de buurt van het meetstation. Door middel van statistische analyse wordt de representativiteit nader onderzocht. Uit deze analyse blijkt dat de vaste meetpunten als representatief voor de omringende 5 x 5 km gridcel beschouwd mogen worden.<br>
    Annual averaged ammonia concentrations and depositions in the Netherlands are calculated using the atmospheric transport model OPS. Since mid-1992 also hourly averaged concentrations are obtained from eight measurement stations spread across the country. Using optimization techniques the fit between calculated and measured values for 1993 has been improved by adaptating model parameters and ammonia emissions. For this purpose the Netherlands is divided into five regions based on source-strength differences. During this calibration the emission field is updated by increasing or decreasing the emissions in these regions. The model predictions improve substantially by application of the resulting adapted emissions and model parameters. In the standard situation the calculated NH3 concentrations were on average 54% lower than the measured ones. After calibration this difference is reduced to 3%. The total emission of ammonia in the Netherlands would therefore have to be increased by 8%, with variations of -20% to +56% per region. After the calculations for this study were carried out, new calculations for 1993 were performed in the framework of MB95, with adapted emissions and an updated version of the model. The adapted emissions confirm the result of this study as the national mean emission is increased by 16% compared to the original estimate. Nevertheless, the difference between measured and calculated concentrations is still 27% on the average. In order to judge the spatial representativeness of the measurements a number of extra measurements have been obtained of locations near the measurement stations. The representativeness is assessed by means of statistical analysis. This analysis shows that the measurement stations can be considered to be representative of their surrounding 5 x 5 km grid cells.<br>
    Publisher
    Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVM
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