AIDS - Statistical analysis and mathematical modelling of the acquired immuno deficiency syndrome (AIDS). With a view to scenario-analysis

Abstract

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Statistical and mathematical models have important roles in the study of the Acquired Immuno Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) epidemic. Statistical models can be used for short-term forecasting of the AIDS incidence and mathematical models contribute to the identification of those epidemiological factors which are critical in their effect on the spread of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). This report gives an overview of models developed by the Department of Medical Statistics (MSA) of the University of Nijmegen (KUN) and the Center for Mathematical Methods (CWM) of the National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands (the research in the modelbuilding part of the study was made possibly by grant 28-1456 from the Praeventiefonds (Netherlands Foundation). The time has come to start a dialogue with public health officials on the role of mathematical models in the evaluation of the effects of control strategies. We have therefore laid emphasis on the future integration and application of mathematical models in HIV/AIDS scenario-research. There is a long way to go, but mathematical models should become a tool in the design and evaluation of control strategies.