EXPECT: outline of an integrated model for environmental scenario analysis and impact assessment

Abstract

This report introduces an integrated model for environmental scenario analysis and impact assessment. The EXPECT system (EXPloring Environmental Consequences for Tomorrow) consists of a user interface, a control program, a relational database with associated database management system and a simulation model with social, economic, environmental and ecological modules. An evaluation module provides cost/benefit and sustainability assessments. A special program is included to generate output in desired formats. The first and second National Environmental Survey and Forecast, published by the RIVM in 1988 and 1991 respectively, have shown that the current run-time of an environmental policy scenario is about two months. The scope of such an exercise precludes analysis of many different scenarios as well as uncertainty analyses of resulting environmental futures. The two surveys thus revealed the need for a model which would be capable to rapidly generate a great number of consistent, integrated environmental impact analyses of economic and environmental policy scenarios. EXPECT modules are preferably developed as simplified versions of state of the art models of economic activity, environmental compartments and ecological, economic and social receptor systems. The system will allow users to examine the costs and effectiveness of economic and environmental policies for several environmental problem areas simultaneously and with a short response time. The models and output are defined on a relatively high aggregation level both with respect to time, space and processes. The report describes the outlines of the various parts of the EXPECT system. EXPECT is currently being developed by the Department of Integrated Modeling (DIM) of the Environmental Forecasting Bureau of the National Institute for Public Health and Environmental Protection of the Netherlands (RIVM).