The Dutch government wants to know if it a good idea to build a new fast railway between Schiphol Airport, via Amsterdam to the North of the Netherlands: the 'Zuiderzeelijn'. The so called 'Projectorganisatie Zuiderzeelijn' was asked to manage researches that are needed to answer this question and the integration of these researches in a Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA). At the request of the Projectorganisatie Zuiderzeelijn the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) investigated emissions impacts of six alternatives for a fast railway connection between Schiphol and the North of the Netherlands. Besides, the RIVM evaluated research on noise impacts of these alternatives. In this research we used transport volumes (passenger kilometres per mode) of a CBA study done by the NEI. Emissions per seat kilometre and occupancy rates were calculated by the RIVM. Calculations show that energy use per seat kilometre of maglev trains is approximately three times that of conventional trains. Assuming most likely estimates for energy use per seat kilometre and occupancy rates, all variants will lead to an increase in emissions of CO2, NOx and SO2. Expressed as a percentage of total transport related emissions in the Netherlands, the increase is less than 0.5%. The increase is biggest for the variants with the maglev trains. Indirect emissions due to the construction of the rail lines can be as high as direct emissions due to using trains. All alternatives result in an increase in noise impacts. Several improvements are suggested to improve the way in which CBA's, such as the CBA for the Zuiderzeelijn, deal with environmental aspects of rail options. Firstly, a reliable estimate of effects of the variants requires more independently carried out research into energy use (and related emissions), and noise emissions of the maglev trains. Secondly, it is advised that future CBA's also include energy use and emissions related to the construction of infrastructure. Finally more research into the impact of (rail) infrastructure on the landscape, nature, and barrier effects is needed.

This report describes a research programme for the development of a methodology for the integral assessment of ecological, economic and social impacts of transport scenarios. The following research activities are planned: (1) a literature study on theories and conceptual models, explaining the functioning of the land-use-transport system; (2) a literature study on methodologies for the evaluation of transport scenarios; (3) a review of evaluation methodologies used in recent transport scenarios; (4) the development of a methodology for the ecological, economic and social assessment of transport scenarios; (5) the application of the methodology in case studies.

In september 2000 is de Nationale Milieuverkenning 5 (MV5) van het RIVM verschenen. De MV5 heeft als doel het schetsen van mogelijke toekomstbeelden van het milieu in Nederland in internationale context en van de gevolgen van de toekomstige milieukwaliteit voor mens en natuur; het aangeven van denkrichtingen voor verdere stappen naar een duurzame ontwikkeling. De MV5 dient mede als voorbereiding op het vierde Nationale Milieubeleidsplan (NMP4). Onderdeel van de MV5 is het presenteren van de te verwachten ontwikkelingen in energiegebruik, emissies en kosten voor de periode tot 2020/2030, uitgaande van het huidige vastgestelde regeringsbeleid. In de MV5 worden deze ontwikkelingen op hoofdlijnen weergegeven. Het onderhavige rapport geeft nadere informatie over de in de MV5 gepresenteerde gegevens. De meest hardnekkige milieuproblemen die bij uitvoering van het vastgestelde milieubeleid in 2010/2020 resteren, zijn klimaatverandering en geluidhinder. Deze problemen hangen sterk samen met energiegebruik en met verkeer en vervoer.

The life cycle of materials like steel, aluminium and paper causes pressure on the environment. Particularly the cracking and melting processes used to convert raw materials cost considerable energy. At European level the production and processing of materials contribute about 25% of the total greenhouse gas emissions. This contribution is even higher in the Netherlands, with its relatively energy-intensive sector structure.l pressure from material streams, it is important to have insight in the physical production trends in the base industries. Indeed energy use and emissions of substances are coupled to quantities of materials needed for physical production. This was reason enough for the Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), in cooperation with the RIVM, to design the STREAM model. STREAM will allow these institutes to discover how at national, European and global levels developments in the economy and environmental policy influence the physical volume location and input efficiency (labour, capital and energy) in the production of materials. STREAM comprises the materials steel, aluminium, paper, petrochemical products(monomers, polymers and solvents) and artificial fertilizers. It models developments in both production with primary raw materials and production with recycled materials.calibrated on monitoring data over the period, 1960 to 1993. From a general uncertainty and sensitivity analysis we concluded that the most important uncertainties and sensitivities of the Dutch ' block' in the model were to be found in the current import and export elasticities. These indicate for example that a rise in the cost price of 1% in the Netherlands with respect to abroad would result in an export drop of 6-8%. In view of the uncertainties about the precise level of the effects, the model results give - mostly indicative - information on trend-like developments.the next decades, STREAM calculates a further growth in the demand for and the production of base materials. The extent of the growth varies, depending on the material in question. The demand for materials from basic chemistry, like polymers and solvents, and the demand for aluminium will grow the most rapidly, while the Western European production of artificial fertilizers will stagnate. The growth in production of base materials in the Netherlands, mostly for export, keeps pace with the rest of Western Europe. Although the energy efficiency of the production of base materials continues, partly because of the increasing contribution of secondary production, it falls behind growth in production. The overall industrial energy use and the associated CO2 emission will therefore rise in this scenario.ial sector, amounting to 1-2 percent of the total production costs, are not demonstrably higher than in the surrounding (competitive) countries. The future costs indicated in the environmental policy now set down, either do not, or barely, seem to affect the industry's competitive position. This policy will lead to a (further) drop in industrial emissions, except for CO2; however, emission targets for 2010 remain largely unattainable. Calculation variants with a stricter environmental policy further illustrate the 'tension' between environmental policy on the one hand and loss of the competitive power on the other.

This report documents the 2001 Netherlands' annual submission of its greenhouse gas emission inventory in accordance with the United Nation's Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the European Union's Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism. The report comprises explanations of observed trends in emissions; a description of a first assessment of key sources and their uncertainty; documentation of methods, data sources and emission factors applied; and a description of the quality assurance system and the verification activities performed on the data. From the inventory it can be concluded that total CO2-equivalent emissions of the six greenhouse gases together increased in 1999 by about 6% relative to 1990 (1995 for fluorinated gases). This increase would be a half per cent less when comparing temperature-corrected emissions. Emissions of CO2 and N2O have increased from 1990 to 1999 by about 8% and 15%, respectively, while in the same period CH4 emissions have decreased by 20%, effectively to a level 0.5% point below N2O emissions. Of the fluorinated greenhouse gases, for which 1995 is the reference year, emissions of HFCs and PFCs increased by 20 and 40% in 1999, respectively, while SF6 emissions (completely recalculated) decreased by about 20%.

A workshop was organised in the Netherlands on 1 September 1999 to improve the National System for Monitoring Greenhouse Gas Emissions. These are the proceedings, including discussion papers, presentations of speakers, reports of discussions and conclusions. It was the task of this workshop to introduce initiatives for adding substance and organisation to the monitoring programme. The starting point of this workshop was the monitoring of policy implementation in the light of uncertainties in emission data. The objectives were elaborated as follows: (1) Per target group: Listing the possibilities for quantitative assessment of the uncertainties of emission estimates. Overall assessment of uncertainties per sector; (2) Per target group: Improving the monitoring of emission reductions; (3) Expertise for follow-up research: Determining the institutions per sector currently equipped to carry out research on uncertainty reduction in emission estimates; (4) Who, what and when? Determining who is going to do what and when to reduce uncertainties in emission estimates; (5) Plan of action: Establishing a general plan per target group to work out the above objectives.

This report presents estimated levels of emissions over the period 1997 - 2030 from Dutch agriculture responding to the latest policy proposals to abate the manure problem. These emission estimates were used as input for calculation of environmental quality developments. The results were reported in the fifth National Environmental Outlook 2000-2030, which was published in 2000 and served as the scientific basis for the fourth National Environmental Policy Plan, developed by the Dutch government and published in June 2001. This report describes the method used to estimate farmers' response to the policy proposals, the subsequent impact on animal numbers, manure production, manure application and regional distribution and resulting emissions to soil (of nitrogen and phosphate) and air (of ammonia). Starting in 2002 farmers may only raise animals when they can guarantee the disposal of the expected manure production within the boundaries set by the EU nitrate direc-tive. This can either be done by having sufficient land at one's disposal or by fixing manure disposal contracts with other land owners. The second corner-stone of the manure policy is a set of national emission standards for nitrogen and phosphate, accompanied by levies. Emissions (or losses) are established per farm on a per hectare basis using a bookkeeping system, accounting for all commercial input (except phosphate chemical fertilizers) and output of nutrients.

Op prinsjesdag 2000 presenteerde het RIVM als milieuplanbureau haar zesde Milieubalans, de MB2000 (RIVM, 2000a).In de Milieubalans 2000 is gekozen voor een algemeen overzicht van de belangrijkste ontwikkelingen voor vier belangrijke milieuproblemen, te weten 1) energiegebruik en klimaatverandering, 2) grensoverschrijdende luchtverontreiniging, 3) milieu in het landelijk gebied en 4) de mens en zijn stedelijke leefomgeving. De bijdrage van de doelgroep verkeer en vervoer aan de MB2000 is dit jaar beperkt gebleven tot het leveren van emissiegetallen. Daarom wordt in dit achtergrondrapport volstaan met het geven van alle relevante emissiegetallen en het beschrijven van de belangrijkste verschillen met emissiegetallen zoals gerapporteerd in de MB1999. Daarnaast wordt de T+4-prognose voor de emissies door de doelgroep verkeer en vervoer in dit achtergrondrapport onderbouwd. De belangrijkste bevindingen voor wat betreft de milieubelasting door verkeer en vervoer zijn: 1) de CO2-emissie door verkeer en vervoer is, net als in de afgelopen 20 jaar, tussen 1998 en 1999 wederom toegenomen en zal in de periode 1999-2004, weliswaar met een lager tempo, blijven toenemen, 2) de emissies van andere broeikasgassen (NO2 en CH4) door verkeer en vervoer nemen daarentegen tussen 1999 en 2004 naar verwachting af, echter niet genoeg om de totale broeikasgasemissies door verkeer en vervoer tussen 1999 en 2004 af te laten nemen, 3) voor de overige in de Milieubalans beschouwde emissies naar lucht, zoals CO2, NOx en VOS, geldt dat deze in 1999 wederom lager zijn dan in het voorafgaande jaar en dat ze zullen dat ze zullen blijven afnemen tussen 1999 en 2004.

Dit achtergronddocument geeft inzicht in de belangrijkste processen, volume-ontwikkelingen, beleid, technologie en aannames die ten grondslag liggen aan de prognose van de niet-CO2-broeikasgassen in de Nationale Milieuverkenning 5. De belangrijkste ontwikkelingen en trends bij de emissies van methaan, lachgas en de F-gassen (HFKs, PFKs, SF6) worden besproken. Met behulp van expertschattingen over onzekerheden in emissiefactoren wordt een indicatie gegeven van de onzekerheid waarmee de berekening van volume (bv. aantal koeien) naar emissie omgeven is. Het gebruik van twee verschillende omgevingsscenario's Global Competion (GC) en European Coordination (EC) is een indicatie voor de onzekerheid in volume ten gevolge van verschillende sociaal-economische ontwikkelingen. De onzekerheid lijkt hoofdzakelijk te worden bepaald door onzekerheden in emissiefactoren en minder door onzekerheden over toekomstige sociaal-economische ontwikkelingen.<br>

This report documents the 1998 Netherlands' annual submission of its greenhouse gas emission inventory according to the European Union's Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism and to the United Nation's Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). From the inventories it can be concluded that emissions of CO2 and N2O increased from 1990 to 1998 by about 12% and 9%, respectively, while in the same period CH4 emissions have decreased by 18%. Of the new gases, for which 1995 is a reference year, emissions of PFCs increased by 4% in 1998, while emissions of HFCs and SF6 (potential) remained at the same level. Total CO2-eq. emissions have increased in 1998 by 8% relative to 1990 (1995 for fluorinated gases) (6% when correcting for temperature).