In this report, we present an update of environmental risk limits (ERLs), based on the literature, for nine trace elements, namely, beryllium (Be), vanadium (V), cobalt (Co), selenium (Se), molybdenum (Mo), tin (Sn), antimony (Sb), barium (Ba) and thallium (Tl). The updated ERLs, established for these elements in freshwater, groundwater, soil and sediment, are to supplement 1992 datasets for risk limit derivation. The updated ERLs for water and groundwater have turned out to be generally lower than existing limits as a result of both new information on toxicity and changes in the methodology used to derive risk limits. Risk limits derived for soil are now based on soil toxicity data for the elements investigated, whereas the existing values for soil were all based on ERLs for water using equilibrium partitioning (EqP). Due to lack of data, ERLs for sediment are still based on EqP and generally show minor changes when compared to existing limits. The maximum permissible concentration (MPC) in rivers and lakes in the Netherlands was found to be exceeded by average measured concentrations of Be, V, Co and Ba, but not of Se and Sb. A qualitative comparison shows that the MPC in groundwater is exceeded for Be, V, Co, Se and Ba concentrations but not for Mo, Sn, Sb and Tl concentrations, although some data on deeper groundwater are missing. No measurement data could be found for the soil, sediment and marine water compartments

A spatial elaboration of scenarios developed for the Sustainability Outlook shows that both the rural and the urban physical environment will change thoroughly during the next decades. Increased land use by housing, employment and leisure will contribute to further urbanisation, especially in the centre of the Netherlands. This will result in deterioration of nature areas and valuable landscapes, depending upon the degree of government protection assumed in a scenario. Further scale enlargement and capital-intensification of the mode of production in agriculture may also threaten valuable landscapes. Besides, fairly large areas of arable farming will be superseded by cattle breeding. Finally it appears that spatial measures of water management can pose many restrictions to new urbanisation locations as well as agriculture. A land use model has been used for this elaboration. The spatial impressions in the form of maps and illustrations show the range of possible futures. This information can support political and societal debates about priorities in policy goals on urbanisation, nature development and conservation, water management and landscape values.

The Netherlands has to report to the EU how they comply with the PM10 emission standards. Animal housing contributes approx. 20% of the total Dutch PM10 emissions. Possible options for emission reduction are oil or fat addition to animal feed, air scrubbers, air filters, oil or water spraying in the animal house. Spraying with oil or water is the most cost effective method. However these methods need to be tested before they can be widely introduced.

Besides primary effects such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the implementation of climate policies in Annex I countries of the Kyoto protocol may have secondary (side) effects, as the resulting increase in carbon or fossil fuel costs may affect energy prices and, hence, the profitability of energy-using industries in Annex I versus non-Annex I countries. From a global warming point of view, these secondary effects or 'spillovers' of climate policy may be either negative or positive. Negative spillovers refer particularly to the incidence of carbon leakage, i.e. an increase in CO2 emissions in non-abating countries due to the implementation of climate policy in Annex I countries. Positive spillovers, on the other hand, refer especially to the inducement of carbon-saving technological innovations and the diffusion of these innovations, both at home and abroad.The primary objective of the present report is to provide a summary assessment of the analytical and empirical knowledge on the potential incidence of spillovers due to climate policy in Annex I countries of the Kyoto protocol. These spillovers include especially the prevalence of carbon leakage as well as the induced innovation and diffusion of carbon-saving technologies in both Annex I and non-Annex I countries. In addition, the report aims to draw lessons, conclusions and policy implications with regard to the opportunities and means to reduce potential negative spillovers of climate policy (i.e. 'carbon leakage') and to enhance its potential positive spillovers ('induced technological change').The present report provides first of all a conceptual framework, particularly on the terms 'spillovers', 'carbon leakage' and 'induced technological change'. Subsequently, it presents the major findings of analytical model studies on the incidence of carbon leakage due to climate policy in Annex I countries of the Kyoto protocol, followed by similar analytical findings on the incidence of induced technological spillovers. Next, it presents the major findings of the three empirical case studies on climate policy spillovers, particularly in the energy-intensive manufacturing industry, the wind power industry, and the biomass and bio-energy industry. Finally, it discusses the major policy implications of the project 'Spillovers of climate policy'.

The National Monitoring Network Flora (part of the Network Ecological Monitoring in the Netherlands) monitors the vegetation on about 10.000 permanent relevees in the Netherlands. Aim of the Monitoring Network Flora is to measure the effects of environmental quality on the Dutch vegetation and to measure changes in species composition. The research question in this report is how effects of environmental quality on the vegetation can be quantified. Three subquestions were addressed: first, which are the differences compared to the historic situation (1900/1950); second, how does ecological quality change over the nitrogen deposition gradient and third, how does the coverage of vegetation layers change over the nitrogen deposition gradient in the Netherlands. The results show that the coverage of vegetation layers is a sensitive parameter in the ecosystems that are discussed here (relative poor ecosystems on sandy soils). Increase in the coverage is linked to an increase in biomass of that layer, an effect caused by nitrification. Small changes in Ellenberg indicator values were detected, which indicate that the species composition does not show large differences over the deposition gradient. The analysis of long term changes, a comparison with a historic situation, does show marked differences in species composition. On poor open vegetation on sand, two trends are detectable. First, species of richer soils increase their abundance to the disadvantage of species of poorer soils. Second, species with a broad tolerance for soil acidity increase. These include a number of species that have an advantage in nutrient richer conditions, such as grasses.

A rigorous statistical analysis reveals changes in Dutch climate that are statistically significant over the last century. Annually averaged temperatures have increased by 1.5 about 0.5 degrees Centigrade; the number of summer days has roughly doubled from 14 about 5 to 27 about 9 days; annual precipitation has increased by 120 about 100 mm; and the number of extremely wet days has increased by about 40%, from 19 about 3 to 26 about 3 days. Several other changes in Dutch climate, such as spring temperatures rising more rapidly than winter temperatures, the increase of the coldest temperature in each year by 0.9 degrees Centigrade and the annual maximum day sum of precipitation, turn out to be not (yet) statistically significant. The changes in Dutch climate have already led to several statistically significant impacts. The length of the growing season has increased by nearly a month, and the number of heating-degree days, a measure for the energy needed for the heating of houses and buildings, has decreased by 14 about 5%. Projections of future temperature increase in 2020 based on the statistical analysis closely resemble projections based on climate models: temperatures continue to increase from 10.4 about 0.4 degrees Centigrade in 2003 to 10.7 about 0.6 degrees Centigrade in 2010 and 11.1 about 1.0 degrees Centigrade in 2020. The energy needed for heating of houses and buildings is expected to decrease further. This warming effect is expected to lower projections of future Dutch greenhouse-gas emissions by 3.5 Mton CO2 equivalents, which is relevant in the context of commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Finally, over the course of the 20th century the chance on an 'Elfstedentocht', an outdoor skating event in the Netherlands, has decreased from once every five years to once every ten years. Even though this impact change is not yet statistically significant, it resides 'on the edge' of significance: within a few years more evidence may become available to firmly establish the diminishing likelihood of outdoor skating in the Netherlands.

In this report the realised energy savings in the Netherlands for the period 1995-2002 are presented for the sectors households, industry, agriculture, services, transport, refineries and electricity and for the national level. First a short description is given of the 'Protocol Monitoring Energy savings', a common methodology and database to calculate the amount of energy savings, that has been set up earlier by four Dutch institutes CPB, ECN, Novem and RIVM. Results are presented for savings on final energy use, for conversion in end-use sectors (co-generation) and for conversion in the energy sector. National savings of 1,0% per year are found, with a decreasing tendency in recent years. Much attention is given to the uncertainty margins that result from the uncertainty in the input data and the 'quality' of the variable that is used to calculated the reference energy use (without savings). It proves not possible to supply a reliable saving figure for final energy use in the services sector. On the other hand the savings from better conversion can be calculated quite well. Overall a margin of +/- 0,3% is found for the national yearly saving figure. Next to savings an analysis has also been made of volume- and structural effects with respect to energy consumption, energy-intensity developments and other relevant factors in different sectors. Finally savings have been put in perspective: savings in comparison with that of the EU-countries, the contribution of savings to the reduction of the CO2-emissions and a comparison with other evaluation studies.

An investigation to assess health risks and odour annoyance was commissioned by the Province of Drenthe in response to concern of residents about possible health effects due to emissions from a planned asphalt plant near Meppel. Data from emission measurements on other asphalt plants were used to calculate the concentrations and deposition of hazardous compounds (including fine particles and PAHs) in the area of the planned plant using an air dispersion model. Odour concentration levels were calculated as well. Levels of hazardous compound were calculated for both the average situation and worst-case conditions. The exposure of residents to compounds emitted from the asphalt plant was quantified and compared to toxicological limits. The results showed that the concentrations and deposition of emitted compounds scarcely exceed background levels in rural and urban areas. The exposure of residents and employees of companies in the surrounding area is below the toxicological guidelines. Also, the expected odour concentration levels do not exceed the limits for odour annoyance. Hence, no unacceptable odour annoyance is expected.

An operator of an establishment using large quantities of dangerous substances, like ammonia, is obliged to carry out a risk assessment, in which the mortality risk to the surrounding population in the case of an accident has to be calculated. The results of the assessment are used to derive an acceptable distance between the establishment and the neighbouring dwellings. Such establishments in the Netherlands include refrigerating installations using ammonia as cooling medium. To avoid carrying out large numbers of similar risk analyses, a few representative installations have been defined. Risk analyses were carried out for these installations and results summarized in conversion tables relating the type of installation to the acceptable risk distance. The conversion table is set up for installations with a maximum of 10,000 kg of ammonia as cooling medium and a limited pump flow of less than 2 kg/s. The installations must also be in compliance with the safety recommendations of the Committee for the Prevention of Disasters. The risk to the surroundings is caused mainly by the installation parts situated outside the engine room. Therefore installations are distinguished into three types with different combinations of installation parts situated outside the engine room. Calculations show the acceptable distance to vary between zero metres for a small installation completely situated in an engine room to 95 metres for a large installation situated completely in open air. The acceptable risk distances calculated here were implemented in Dutch legislation in 2004.

In November 2003 the Dutch Ministry of Transport promised the relevant parliamentary standing committee to conduct an exploratory study on the area-specific approach to societal risk (the probability of accident with a large number of victims) in relation to Amsterdam Schiphol Airport in view of the intended adaptation of the Dutch Aviation Law. This study, targeted at assessing alternatives for the current societal risk policy for the surroundings of Schiphol, led to an initial exploratory investigation on how local societal risk policy could be modelled. At present, the societal risk caused by aviation activities around Schiphol is calculated for an area of 56 by 56 kilometres, making balanced assessments of local environmental planning and safety in the municipalities around the airport impossible. Therefore societal risk was examined from municipal perspective to answer the questions on how different local risks relate to each other and how one can visualize the change in societal risk when new spatial plans are realized? The approach tested in this report is concluded to offer good opportunities, or at least pretexts, for an area-specific approach to societal risk. However, further studies or a follow-up investigation should reveal if a practical and valuable instrument can indeed be developed.