This report provides a survey of past and present integrated models that have been used for the generation and analysis of global scenarios. It examines the usefulness of the models for scenario studies on environmentally sustainable development. It does so by evaluating the models in terms of inter alia horizontal integration, vertical integration, and regional specificity. No single model is found to be 'ideal', but a judicious combination of currently existing models with narrative storylines can provide the basis for the development of global scenarios of environmentally sustainable development.
Emissions of many environmentally damaging substances have, even the last few years, dropped and this, despite a more than average growth of the economy. Carbon dioxide constitutes a major exception here. Emissions of CO2 have indeed only shown increases, although the growth in the last few years is letting up due to savings in energy and the movement of the service industry (a less polluting sector) towards a more prominent position in the economy. In 1998 consumption in the Netherlands reached a record high and is getting even more energy-intensive. Especially spending on electrical equipment, cars and trips abroad has strong increased. Energy-efficiency improvements in equipment and cars have not been successful in compensating for this growth. The quality of water, soil and air has improved in many aspects, but the various policy objectives have not yet been met. Recovery of ecosystems is practically non-existent. Effects on public health do occur, arising particularly from high concentrations of fine particulates and ozone, as well as the continuing high levels of noise pollution.
de Haan BJ; Klepper O; Sauter FJ; Heuberger PSC; Rietveld AJ(Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVM, 1996-01-31)
Progress in the EUROMOD project (RIVM no. 461501) is reported. The EUROMOD project aims at the realization of a computer model that may support international negotiations concerning Europe's environment. The model is called CARMEN: CAuse effect Relation Model for Environmental policy Negotiations. CARMEN contains the results of many RIVM efforts in the building of databases and models. A chain of models has been implemented that describes the fate of nitrogen emissions to the environment, either in the form of exhaust, sewage water, of fertilizer application. It is now possible to project the efficacy of abatement strategies at regional scales, such as river catchment areas and coastal seas.<br>
This report describes the development of an environmental monitoring strategy for the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment. Environmental Monitoring is seen as the information system underpinning regular assessment of the environmental quality in relation to environmental policy measures. Concerned here is the influence of policy measures in industrial, agricultural and social activities ; the resulting abiotic environmental quality and the effects on public health, as well as ecosystems and depletion of resources (the so-called 'policy-effect chain'). This will lead to a shift in the RIVM monitoring programme: 1) to increase efforts to obtain high quality environmental pressure data as input to computer information systems ; 2) to set up small monitoring programmes on the application of environmental policy measures ; 3) to focus from the point of view of causes and effects the long-term monitoring systems for chemical/physical environmental quality more on the most relevant locations.
By order of the Dutch Ministry of Finance a working group is investigating the possibilities of introducing a 'greener' tax system in the Netherlands. At the request of this working group, the Dutch National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) has quantified the environmental effects of possible energy and fuel taxes in the future. Besides, the energy-saving effects have been estimated of returning 25% of the energy-tax revenues in the period 1995-2000 to consumers and firms to simulate additional investments in energy efficiency. For transport special attention has been paid to the effect of changes in travel-cost allowances for commuters by car on car use, CO2 emissions and congestion. All effects are expressed in reductions in energy use, CO2 emissions and - if relevant - in car use.
de Nijs T; Crommentuijn L; Farjon JMJ; Leneman H; Ligtvoet W; de Niet R; Schotten K(Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVM, 2002-10-31)
The National Nature Outlook 2 examines the effects of future developments in society on nature and landscape by means of four scenarios. These scenarios describe the development of Dutch society from the viewpoint of two different contradictory trends: 'globalisation versus regionalisation' and 'individualisation versus co-operation' Here, we describe the spatial quantification of these four scenarios into four maps for land use in 2030 using the Environment Explorer and the Land Use Scanner. These land-use maps form the basis for subsequent emission, distribution and effect analyses. The four scenarios of the National Nature Outlook 2 have been converted to future land-use using the present land-use and the developments in the various land-use functions according to the scenarios. Present land use is based on 'Bodemstatistiek' (Soil statistics) 1996 produced by Statistics Netherlands. The developments of residential and work-sites are based on the so-called 'Trend variant', developed by the Environmental and Nature Policy Assessment agencies to test the Fifth Report on Spatial Planning against the ecological effects. For nature, the increase in total area and the extent of habitat fragmentation varies among the four scenarios. The agricultural sector will also have to make space to accommodate the growth of urban and nature areas. In the operation of the various land-use functions choices have been made in: the growth in demand of the function up to 2030; regional distribution of the demand in space; interpretation of spatial restrictive policies; cal suitability and the spatial allocation behaviour of the function. The spatial quantification has resulted in four maps on land use for 2030. In essence, the principles and assumptions in the quantification of the scenarios define these maps. The maps have been used to characterise the potential effects of the four scenarios on natural and culturally valuable landscapes and reserves.<br>
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